scholarly journals Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings

2004 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 1239-1263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith A. Porter ◽  
James L. Beck ◽  
Rustem Shaikhutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Market Force ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Planning Period ◽  
Frame Building ◽  
Linear Assembly ◽  
Probable Maximum Loss

A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of commercial buildings in seismically active regions. One outcome of the assessment is that a probable maximum loss ( PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period. We introduce an alternative to PML called probable frequent loss ( PFL), defined as the mean loss resulting from shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years. PFL is approximately related to expected annualized loss ( EAL) through a site economic hazard coefficient (H) introduced here. PFL and EAL offer three advantages over PML: (1) meaningful planning period; (2) applicability in financial analysis (making seismic risk a potential market force); and (3) can be estimated using a single linear structural analysis, via a simplified method called linear assembly-based vulnerability (LABV) that is presented in this work. We also present a simple decision-analysis framework for real-estate investments in seismic regions, accounting for risk aversion. We show that market risk overwhelms uncertainty in seismic risk, allowing one to consider only expected consequences in seismic risk. We illustrate using 15 buildings, including a 7-story nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building in Van Nuys, California, and 14 buildings from the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project.

Seismic risk assessments for real estate portfolios: Impact of engineering investigation on quality of seismic risk studies

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110429
Author(s):  
Yajie Lee ◽  
William P Graf ◽  
Charles C Thiel ◽  
Zhenghui Hu ◽  
Mark Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Evaluation Studies ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Risk Metric ◽  
Engineering Investigation ◽  
Technical Professionals

Seismic risk evaluation studies for real estate portfolios conducted by technical professionals (often Civil and Structural Engineers) have become increasingly desirable and common in financial decisions. In this article, we develop a series of risk measures and ratings based on common outcomes from probabilistic portfolio seismic risk assessments. We first define two portfolio risk metrics: Portfolio Expected Loss (PELα) and Portfolio Upper Loss (PULα), where “α” is the annual exceedance probability, or the corresponding return period (“1/α”). PULα/PELα ratio characterizes the uncertainty in estimated portfolio risks which results from the uncertainty in seismic performance of the individual assets. Three uncertainty levels are defined, namely, low, medium, and high, based on the PULα/PELα. We then develop an asset risk metric, called Tail Contribution Index (TCIα), that characterizes the contribution of individual assets to the portfolio losses that fall within the high-consequence “tail” of the portfolio loss distribution. To describe the overall engineering efforts of a portfolio seismic risk study, we develop a portfolio risk metric, called Portfolio Level of Investigation (PLIα), that characterizes the effective level of engineering investigation. Three investigation levels are defined: low ( desktop), medium ( semi-engineered), and high ( engineered), based on the PLIα. Finally, based on the combination of uncertainty level and investigation level, we develop a rating scheme by which the quality (Qα) of a portfolio seismic risk study is characterized. Five quality levels are defined: very poor, poor, fair, good, and very good. These risk indices and ratings can help stakeholders and technical professionals better diagnose and communicate portfolio seismic risks, scope adequate studies, effectively utilize valuable resources, and base financial decisions on risk assessment results that have the desired reliability.

Evaluating the cost and benefits of earthquake protection of buildings

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetto Manganelli ◽  
Marco Vona ◽  
Pierfrancesco De Paola
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Seismic Retrofitting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Seismic Risk Mitigation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Earthquake Protection ◽  
Real Estate Assets

Purpose The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the cost and benefits of earthquake protection of buildings to verify whether the legislative push, through tax incentives, will produce results and lead to a redevelopment of private real estate assets. Design/methodology/approach Through contingent valuation, this research aims to measure the propensity of homeowners to invest in the seismic security of their properties. The sample of homeowners was selected in a southern Italy city, which was characterized by a medium-high seismic hazard. The willingness to pay, once made independent from the family income, was compared with the actual cost of a seismic retrofitting technique to assess its cost-effectiveness. Findings The analysis developed on an example case shows that the economic sustainability of the intervention is only verified when considering the current tax incentives for this type of intervention. Practical implications Choosing to introduce a system to compulsory insurance against seismic risk could certainly be a strong incentive for the implementation of retrofitting interventions on private real estate assets. In this direction, investigations like this can be fundamental to establish the fair risk premium. Originality/value The need for effective seismic risk mitigation policies is also based on the growing awareness of the, often fatal, effects of seismic events, emphasized by the recent medium and high intensity events that hit Italy. The issue of the security of residential buildings is therefore a very topical issue in view of their high seismic vulnerability and the vast number of buildings requiring major seismic retrofitting. Therefore, the propensity of owners to intervene in improving the seismic performance of their properties can be crucial in seismic risk mitigation.

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of India

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 345-371
Author(s):  
Anirudh Rao ◽  
Debashish Dutta ◽  
Pratim Kalita ◽  
Nick Ackerley ◽  
Vitor Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Design Guidelines ◽  
Exposure Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Earthquake Insurance

This study presents a comprehensive open probabilistic seismic risk model for India. The proposed model comprises a nationwide residential and non-residential building exposure model, a selection of analytical seismic vulnerability functions tailored for Indian building classes, and the open implementation of an existing probabilistic seismic hazard model for India. The vulnerability of the building exposure is combined with the seismic hazard using the stochastic (Monte Carlo) event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine to estimate probabilistic seismic risk metrics such as average annual economic losses and the exceedance probability curves at the national, state, district, and subdistrict levels. The risk model and the underlying datasets, along with the risk metrics calculated at different scales, are intended to be used as tools to quantitatively assess the earthquake risk across India and also compare with other countries to develop risk-informed building design guidelines, for more careful land-use planning, to optimize earthquake insurance pricing, and to enhance general earthquake risk awareness and preparedness.

Estimation of Risk-Return for Real Estate Investments by Applying Ellwood’s Model and Real Options Analysis: An Application to the Residential Real Estate Market of Naples

2014 ◽  
Vol 651-653 ◽  
pp. 1570-1575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo del Giudice ◽  
Alfredo Passeri ◽  
Pierfrancesco de Paola ◽  
Francesca Torrieri
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Real Options Analysis ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Real Estate Investments ◽  
Capitalization Rate ◽  
Financial Income

In the present study was developed an application of a model derived from Ellwood’s financial analysis and Real Options Analysis for estimating the risk-return in the residential real estate market of Naples. With the aim of reducing the uncertainty related to the determination of the risk and return for an property investment, starting of real estate investment layout derived from the Ellwood’s model, latter defined by financial income and costs related to the period of property availability, a risk analysis with Real Options Analysis has been implemented, in order to obtain the evolution of the investment value until the year in which it is convenient to recover the initial capital. This model has allowed to determine a capitalization rate for a general area of reference, that it can adapt on further effects of specific factors and intrinsic characteristics of the property being valued. It also allows to define uniquely the investment duration, in terms of availability period of property.

scholarly journals К вопросы сейсмического риска г. Владикавказа

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.B. Zaalishvili ◽  
A. Pinar ◽  
M. Erdik ◽  
O.G. Burdzieva ◽  
D.A. Melkov
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Seismic Attenuation ◽  
Gis Technology ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Methodology Development ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
The Republic

The last decades in Russia have been characterized by high growth rates of population, industry, infrastructure in large cities and industrial centers located in seismically active regions. The construction did not always take into account the characteristics of local soils and the level of seismic hazard. The study of the consequences of strong and destructive earthquakes created the conditions for new scientific developments in engineering seismology and earthquake-engineering. Seismic zoning of urbanized territories makes it possible to assess the seismic risk of the territory, take measures to strengthen existing buildings and carry out the construction of buildings and structures with a given seismic resistance. This problem is especially relevant for the regions of the Caucasus. The Republic of North Ossetia-Alania is located in a fairly high seismically active zone. It seems natural to assess the seismic risk in the capital of the republic – the city of Vladikavkaz. Aim. The aim of the work is to develop and implement modern methodology for the expected seismic risk assessment of a city on the example of Vladikavkaz city. Methods. The methods associated with the assessment (probabilistic or deterministic) of ground motion include consideration a number of processes: earthquake source, disaggregation of probabilistic hazard, empirical relationships of seismic attenuation, site effects, and construction mechanics. All of this demands regularization of Construction Norms parameters with different methodologies and corresponding methodology development based on GIS technology. Results. Previous test area assessment results are presented and tips for improvement and regularization are given. Consideration of specific types of soils and types of building stock with e Последние десятилетия в России отмечены высокими темпами роста населения, промышленности и инфраструктуры в крупных городах и промышленных центрах, расположенных в сейсмически активных регионах. При строительстве не всегда учитывались местные грунтовые условия и уровень сейсмической опасности. Изучение последствий сильных и разрушительных землетрясений создало условия для новых научных разработок в инженерной сейсмологии и сейсмостойком строительстве. Сейсмическое районирование урбанизированных территорий дает возможность оценить сейсмический риск территории, принять меры по усилению существующих построек и осуществить строительство зданий и сооружений с заданной сейсмостойкостью. Эта проблема особенно актуальна для регионов Кавказа. Республика Северная Осетия-Алания расположена в зоне достаточно высокой сейсмической активности. Оценка сейсмического риска в столице Республики - городе Владикавказ становится очевидной. Цель работы. Целью работы является разработка и внедрение современной методологии оценки ожидаемого сейсмического риска города на примере города Владикавказ. Методы исследований. Методы, связанные с оценкой (вероятностной или детерминистической) движений грунта, включают рассмотрение ряда процессов: очага землетрясения, отделения вероятностной опасности, эмпирических соотношений затухания сейсмических волн, влияния площадки и строительной механики. Все это требует упорядочения параметров строительных норм с использованием различных методологий и разработки соответствующей методики на основе ГИС-технологий. Результаты работ. Представлены результаты предыдущей оценки тестовой области и даны советы по улучшению и регуляризации. Рассмотрение конкретных типов грунтов и типов застройки с оценкой интенсивности и уязвимости типов зданий дало разный уровень ожидаемых экономических потерь

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-63
Author(s):  
Helen X. H. Bao ◽  
◽  
Adam Brady ◽  
Ziyou Wang ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Event Studies ◽  
Market Force ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Pricing Efficiency ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact

We use the reclassification of the real estate stocks in the S&P 500 from the Financials sector as a natural experiment to test the co-existence of both market force and behavioural biases. By performing event studies on real estate investment trusts (REITs) included in the S&P 400, S&P 500, and S&P 600 indices on both the announcement and implementation dates, we investigate the impact of the reclassification of the real estate stocks in the S&P 500 from the Financials sector to the newly created Real Estate sector under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) system. We set up four hypotheses to test if the identified reclassification effect is due to improved pricing efficiency or bounded rationality. The event studies confirm the presence of abnormal returns during the announcement of the new sector and the S&P implementation. The reclassification effect is the largest for large-cap real estate stocks that are included in the S&P 500 index. These abnormal returns are robust to various measures of statistical significance and variation of event windows. The creation of a real estate category in the GICS improves the pricing efficiency of real estate stocks, but also triggers framing effects among investors. The market is under the influence of both rational and irrational forces.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Struktur Modal dan Kemampulabaan Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Properti dan Real Estate Yang Terdaftar di BEI Tahun 2013-2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-28
Author(s):  
Wadudi Wibowo ◽  
Ani Mekaniwati
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Financial Information ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Property Companies ◽  
Two Independent Variables

This research is to acknowledge the influence of capital structure and profitability to the stock returns of the listed real estate and property companies in BEI on 2013-2015. This research consists of two independent variables regarding capital structure and profitability, and one dependent variable regarding stock returns. Data used is secondary data which could be accessed from www.idx.co.id . The hypothesis testing in this research uses data panel regression model. The results are: 1) positive & significant results between DER towards capital returns 2) positive & significant results between NPM towards capital returns. The contributions for potential investors, this research was hoped to increase the knowledges of financial information of the companies specialised in real estate & properties sector. Also hoped to give good contributions to discussion on financial analysis particularly related with DER, NPM & capital returns.   Keywords : capital structure, profitability, stock returns, and data panel regression

SEL versus SUL: managing seismic risk in commercial real estate investments

2010 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 389-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles C. Thiel ◽  
Thomas E. Kosonen ◽  
David A. Stivers
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Investments
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document