PIK3CA mutation status and progression-free survival in advanced hormone receptor positive (HR+)/ human endocrine receptor negative (HER2–) metastatic breast cancer (mBC): A meta-analysis of published clinical trials.
1069 Background: Approximately 40% of HR+/HER2- mBC patients harbor PIK3CA mutation. Associations between PIK3CA mutation status and clinical outcomes among patients with HR+/HER2- mBC have been heterogeneous across clinical trials. We synthesized available evidence from clinical trials to estimate the association between PIK3CA status and progression-free survival (PFS) using a meta-analysis adjusting for study design differences. Methods: Randomized clinical trials reporting PFS stratified by PIK3CA status in HR+/HER2- mBC were identified via a systematic literature review. Trial arms receiving PIK3CA targeted therapies were excluded. Median PFS, 6-, 12- and 18-month PFS rates, and data on trial design features were extracted. Associations between PIK3CA status and PFS were estimated adjusting for study follow-up duration, PIK3CA testing method (ctDNA vs tissue ) and study treatment using multi-level random effects meta-regression. Results: The analyzed data included 3,238 patients from 33 study arms across 11 trials ( PIK3CA mutated (MT): 1,386, wild type (WT): 1,852). PIK3CA mutation was overall associated with shorter median PFS (difference [95% CI] (months): -2.15 [-4.14, -0.15]) with substantial heterogeneity across studies ( I2 = 98.34%). The direction of this association was robust to adjustment for study treatment (-1.27 [-2.22, -0.32]). The association was stronger for ctDNA testing (-2.16 [-3.65, -0.66]; N (total patients): 1,876) than for tissue testing (-0.65 [-2.2, 0.91]; N: 998). Findings were similar for 6-month PFS rates (absolute rate difference -9.17% [-14.22, -4.12], N: 3,179; MT: 1,366, WT: 1,813). Associations were directionally consistent but not statistically significant at 12 months (N = 2,487; MT: 1,056, WT: 1,431) and 18 months (N = 1,745; MT: 811, WT: 934), potentially due to the decreasing precision towards the tails of the PFS curves and significant heterogeneity across studies. Conclusions: Pooling evidence across multiple studies, PIK3CA mutation was associated with shorter PFS, especially when ctDNA testing was used. These findings suggest a negative prognostic value of PIK3CA mutation in patients with HR+/HER2- mBC.