A Nation of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation and American History

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward L Glaeser
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
American History ◽  
Las Vegas ◽  
Simple Heuristic ◽  
Default Options ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
The Impact

The great housing convulsion that buffeted America between 2000 and 2010 has historical precedents, from the frontier land boom of the 1790s to the skyscraper craze of the 1920s. But this time was different. There was far less real uncertainty about fundamental economic and geographic trends, making the convulsion even more puzzling. During historic and recent booms, sensible models could justify high prices on the basis of seemingly reasonable projections about stable or growing prices. The recurring error appears to be a failure to anticipate the impact that elastic supply will eventually have on prices, whether for cotton in Alabama in 1820 or land in Las Vegas in 2006. Buyers don't appear to be irrational but rather cognitively limited investors who work with simple heuristic models, instead of a comprehensive general equilibrium framework. Low interest rates rarely seem to drive price growth; underpriced default options are a more common contributor to high prices. The primary cost of booms has not typically been overbuilding, but rather the financial chaos that accompanies housing downturns.

Low Interest Rates do they Revise Household Saving Motives in the Euro Area?

e-Finanse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-56
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Kochaniak
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Union Member ◽  
Household Saving ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper presents the impact of decreasing MFI interest rates on household deposits and saving goals in 12 Monetary Union member countries in the years 2009-2015. It analyses tendencies in household deposits (overnight, with agreed maturity and redeemable at notice), and attempts to link them with certain household saving motives (target, retirement and precautionary). The paper identifies those deposit categories which appeared as sensitive to declining interest rates and indicates the Eurozone countries whose populations are expected to revise their savings plans. Precise implications are drawn for target saving motives of households in Austria, Cyprus and Malta. However, in the case of two other motives, the analysis does not conclude on the impact of decreasing MFI interest rates.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 275-306
Author(s):  
Jérôme Coffinet ◽  
◽  
Etienne Kintzler ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Low Interest Rates

We develop a simple framework to assess the position of office prices with respect to their fundamentals. Applying the model to France, we show that a constrained office supply and low interest rates mainly explain for the high and increasing trend of office prices in recent years. Nonetheless, we find that the office market is only slightly overvalued in France in late 2017: the deviation of office prices with respect to their fundamental determinants is between 0% and 10%, thus indicating that the market is close to fair value.

scholarly journals Impact of oil prices, the U.S interest rates on Turkey’s real estate market. New evidence from combined co-integration and bootstrap ARDL tests

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0242672
Author(s):  
Ahmed Alhodiry ◽  
Husam Rjoub ◽  
Ahmed Samour
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

The research aims to provide new empirical evidence by testing the impact of the external shocks namely: oil prices and the U.S interest rate on Turkey’s real estate market by using three techniques of co-integration tests namely: the newly developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing approach as proposed by (McNown et al. 2018), the new approach involving the Bayer-Hanck (2013) combined co-integration test, Hatemi-J (2008) co-integration testing approach. The ARDL model is utilized to explore the relationship between the variables. The findings show that the oil prices have a positive impact on Turkey’s real estate market, the results confirm that there is a significant impact of oil prices on Turkey’s real estate market through the domestic interest rate. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that there is a significant spillover influence of the U.S. interest rates on Turkey’s real estate market through oil prices and domestic interest rates. This study suggests that the following factors led to increasing the sensitivity and volatility of the Turkish real estate market to oil prices and the U.S. interest rate fluctuations: the presence of economic interdependence between the USA and Turkey, and the majority of the external debts and the reserve currency in Turkey are composed in the USD, and Turkey’s oil imports hit record high in last years. Finally, this article suggests that policymakers in Turkey should pay close attention to the effects of external shocks namely the oil prices and U.S. interest rates on Turkish markets to maintain economic and financial stability.

scholarly journals Impact of Bank Capital and Monetary policy on Lending Behavior of USA Banking Sector Before and After Global Financial Crises

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-181
Author(s):  
Amna Kausar ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Lending Behavior ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of bank capital, capital structure and monetary policy on the lending behavior of USA banks before and after global financial crises. For this purpose, sample data is collected from the annual reports of top ten banks of USA from 2001 to 2017. A panel unit root is applied to check the stationarity of variables. In order to explain the impact of bank capital, capital structure and monetary policy on lending behavior of USA banks, fixed effect and random effect model have been used. The sample data has been divided into two sets. First data set is taken from 2001 to 2008 before financial crises. Second data set is taken from 2009 to 2017 after financial crises and all above tests have been applied on these data sets. Furthermore, in order to measure the lending behavior three types of lending have been selected lending to consumers, lending to real estate and lending to commercial & industrial sector of USA banks. In order to get the better picture of lending behavior of USA banks before and after financial crises: paired sample T-test has been applied on the data of lending before and after financial crises. Results of paired sample T-test showed there is significant difference in lending to consumers, lending to commercial & industrial sector and lending to real estate before and after financial crises of USA banks because of the implementation of Basel III. So, we accept the alternative hypothesis for our second research question. Findings suggested that impact of bank capital, capital structure and monetary policy has significant impact on the lending behavior before and after the global financial crises with the positive change of sixteen percent in R-squared value. So, we accept the alternative hypothesis for our first research question. The results of coefficients shows that before financial crises (2001 to 2008) discounted interest rates have more significant impact on the lending made to consumers but after the global financial crises (2009 to 2017) discounted interest rates, capital structure and tier 1 capital ratio have more significant impact on the loan made to consumers. The results of coefficients shows that before the financial crises (2001 to 2008) discounted interest rates have more significant impact on the loan made to commercial and industrial sector but after the global financial crises (2009 to 2017) discounted interest rates, capital structure and tier 1 capital ratio have more significant impact on the loan made to commercial and industrial sector. The results of coefficients shows that before financial crises (2001 to 2008) discounted interest rates have more significant impact on the loan made to real estate but after the global financial crises (2009 to 2017) discounted interest rates and capital structure have more significant impact on the loan made to real estate. Findings of our study are aligned with Swamy (2015), who investigated the impact of bank capital on lending spreads and found that increase in capital ratio of banks would also increase their lending spreads. Our results are also matched with the findings of (Kosak et al., 2015), those concluded that capital structure significantly affect the loan growth of banks. Our results are also aligned with Chami & Cosimano (2010), they found that change in monetary policy due to Basel Accord would lead to a change in bank capital and bank loans.

scholarly journals Affordable Credit Resources to Implement Investment Projects in Industry of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 24-35
Author(s):  
V. A. Eremkin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit System ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

Raising loan finance by industrial enterprises for the development of their investment projects is an important factor for economic growth in Russia. Due to this the problem of credit resource affordability for Russian business becomes more and more topical. The article analyzes possibilities of credit affordability regulation for industrial enterprises by tools of monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The author aims at indentifying the current problems of the credit system for industrial enterprises and finding the key lines in its improvement. Within the frames of the research the author estimates the impact of high and low interest rates on the volume of industry crediting, analyzes the structure of giving credits to non-financial organizations and studies the problem of long cash affordability for realizing investment projects in industry. The article also investigates the asset concentration in the banking sector and shows the higher role of state and the diminishing number of commercial banks and their branches. Certain important lines of development were identified, which in the future could determine the situation in industry crediting in Russia. Finding of the research can be used for devising the state strategy of developing the system of industry crediting in Russia.

scholarly journals IMPLICATIONS OF LOW INTEREST RATES ON BANK PROFITABILITY AND RISK-TAKING

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
MANUELA ENDER ◽  
CORINNA NEUHOFER
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Qualitative Content Analysis ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
State Of Research ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effect of low interest rates on bank profitability and risk-taking. A comprehensive depiction of the current state of research was developed based on systematic literature review and qualitative content analysis. A low interest rate environment, as present in many economies, has various implications on bank profitability and risk-taking. A positive relationship is found between interest rates and net interest income, while the relationship with non-interest income is negative. Also, banks increase risk-taking in search for yield. The influence on bank profitability is highly dependent on several factors, but in most papers a negative influence is found. Throughout the world banks have managed to limit the impact through mitigation strategies, such as diversification, which are presented as guidance.

scholarly journals Thrift and Credit Cooperative Lending Channel under Prolonged Low-Interest Rates: The Case of Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Kovit Charnvitayapong
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Interaction Terms ◽  
Credit Cooperatives ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Impact

Objective – Considerable research indicates that during times of prolonged low interest rates, commercial bank lending channels are less effective in conveying the impact of expansionary monetary policies. What is the impact of easy money policy through lending channels of non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs) such as thrift and credit cooperatives (TCCs) and why should this result occur? The objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy through TCC lending channels compared to bank lending channels from 2008 to 2017. Methodology/Technique – Annual data from 546 TCCs was used in this investigation. A fixed effects model for TCCs and random effect for banks were employed to examine the data. Two models of each institution, one with lagged interaction terms and the other with contemporaneous interaction terms, were tested and compared. The impact of institutional characteristics such as size, deposit, liquidity and equity, and macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth and yield spread, on lending channels were also examined. Finding – As expected, the results show that TCC lending channels respond positively to prolonged low interest rate policies, whilst bank lending channels respond negatively in one model. Thus, if monetary authorities wish to increase the effectiveness of expansionary monetary policy, TCCs should be allowed to develop under careful supervision. Novelty –This study concludes that incremental budgeting caused by regulation must be borne by TCCs. Type of Paper: Empirical. JEL Classification: E44 E51 E52 E58. Keywords: Thrift and Credit Cooperatives (TCCs); Prolonged Low-Interest Rates; Transmission Mechanism; Lending Channels; Fixed Effects. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Charnvitayapong, K. 2020. Thrift and Credit Cooperative Lending Channel under Prolonged Low Interest Rates: The Case of Thailand, J. Bus. Econ. Review 5(2) 59 – 71 https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2020.5.2(2)

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