scholarly journals Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathryn M. E Dominguez ◽  
Matthew D Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
The Political ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Financial Shocks ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. We construct a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. We then compare forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.

Path dependence, the COVID-19 crisis, and inequality in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-206
Author(s):  
Daniele Tavani
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Historical Trajectory

This paper considers both secular and medium-run trends to argue that the US economy was already vulnerable to shocks before the COVID-19 crisis. Long-run trends have shown a pattern of secular stagnation and increasing inequality since the 1980s, while the economy has displayed hysteresis during the sluggish recovery from the Great Recession. The immediate policy response through the Coronavirus, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act highlighted the coordinating role of fiscal policy on the economy, but also showcased limits, especially with regard to the paycheck protection program. The historical trajectory of the US economy before the COVID-19 crisis cast serious doubts on recent cries of ‘overheating’ and inflationary pressures that should supposedly arise from the $1.9 trillion relief package just signed into law by President Biden. Projecting forward to the long run, redistribution policies may provide useful first steps in reversing the trends of rising inequality and declining productivity growth that the US economy has seen over the last few decades.

US household deleveraging following the Great Recession – a model-based estimate of equilibrium debt

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Albuquerque ◽  
Ursel Baumann ◽  
Georgi Krustev
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
State Level ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Income Ratio

AbstractThe balance sheet adjustment in the household sector was a prominent feature of the Great Recession that is widely believed to have held back the cyclical recovery of the US economy. A key question for the US outlook is therefore whether household deleveraging has ended or whether further adjustment is needed. The novelty of this paper is to estimate a time-varying equilibrium household debt-to-income ratio determined by economic fundamentals to examine this question. The paper uses state-level data for household debt from the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel over the period 1999Q1–2012Q4 and employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999), adjusted for cross-section dependence. The results support the view that, despite significant progress in household balance sheet repair, household deleveraging still had some way to go as of 2012Q4, as the actual debt-to-income-ratio continued to exceed its estimated equilibrium. The baseline conclusions are rather robust to a set of alternative specifications. Going forward, our model suggests that part of this debt gap could, however, be closed by improving economic conditions rather than only by further declines in actual debt. Nevertheless, the normalisation of the monetary policy stance may imply challenges for the deleveraging process by reducing the level of sustainable household debt.

scholarly journals Universal resilience patterns in labor markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Esteban Moro ◽  
Morgan R. Frank ◽  
Alex Pentland ◽  
Alex Rutherford ◽  
Manuel Cebrian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Urban Policy ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Skill Requirements ◽  
Us Cities

AbstractCities are the innovation centers of the US economy, but technological disruptions can exclude workers and inhibit a middle class. Therefore, urban policy must promote the jobs and skills that increase worker pay, create employment, and foster economic resilience. In this paper, we model labor market resilience with an ecologically-inspired job network constructed from the similarity of occupations’ skill requirements. This framework reveals that the economic resilience of cities is universally and uniquely determined by the connectivity within a city’s job network. US cities with greater job connectivity experienced lower unemployment during the Great Recession. Further, cities that increase their job connectivity see increasing wage bills, and workers of embedded occupations enjoy higher wages than their peers elsewhere. Finally, we show how job connectivity may clarify the augmenting and deleterious impact of automation in US cities. Policies that promote labor connectivity may grow labor markets and promote economic resilience.

scholarly journals Escaping the Great Recession

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (4) ◽  
pp. 1030-1058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Bianchi ◽  
Leonardo Melosi
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Deep Recession

We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great Recession: a deep recession, no deflation, and large fiscal imbalances. We then show that a microfounded model that features policy uncertainty accounts for these stylized facts. Finally, we highlight that policy uncertainty arises at the zero lower bound because of a trade-off between mitigating the recession and preserving long-run macroeconomic stability. (JEL E31, E32, E52, E62, G01, H63)

Regimes of Realization: Using Marx and Kalecki to Understand the US Economy, including the Great Recession and the “Recovery”

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 757-772
Author(s):  
David M. Brennan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The United States ◽  
Profit Rate ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Jel Classifications

By integrating selected Kaleckian and Marxian insights, this paper analyzes the sources of profit realization and the profit rate in the US economy from 1964–2013. The most significant sources of profit realization in the United States are capitalists’ consumption and workers’ debt, which historically have been under appreciated both theoretically and empirically. The insights gleaned by analyzing the sources of profit realization aid in understanding the Great Recession and the future of the US economy. JEL Classifications: B51, E11

Disruptive Soft Law and Post-Crisis US Reform

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham L. Newman ◽  
Elliot Posner
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soft Law ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Interaction

Chapter 6 examines the long-term effects of international soft law on policy in the United States since 2008. The extent and type of post-crisis US cooperation with foreign jurisdictions have varied considerably with far-reaching ramifications for international financial markets. Focusing on the international interaction of reforms in banking and derivatives, the chapter uses the book’s approach to understand US regulation in the wake of the Great Recession. The authors attribute seemingly random variation in the US relationship to foreign regulation and markets to differences in pre-crisis international soft law. Here, the existence (or absence) of robust soft law and standard-creating institutions determines the resources available to policy entrepreneurs as well as their orientation and attitudes toward international cooperation. Soft law plays a central role in the evolution of US regulatory reform and its interface with the rest of the world.

The Great Recession, behavioral health, and self-rated health: An examination of racial/ethnic differences in the US

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 106873
Author(s):  
Nina Mulia ◽  
Yu Ye ◽  
Katherine J. Karriker-Jaffe ◽  
Libo Li ◽  
William C. Kerr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Health ◽  
Ethnic Differences ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Self Rated Health ◽  
The Us ◽  
Racial Ethnic

scholarly journals Money and credit during normal times and house price booms: evidence from time-frequency analysis

Empirica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 835-861
Author(s):  
Maciej Ryczkowski
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Price Boom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run

Abstract I analyse the link between money and credit for twelve industrialized countries in the time period from 1970 to 2016. The euro area and Commonwealth Countries have rather strong co-movements between money and credit at longer frequencies. Denmark and Switzerland show weak and episodic effects. Scandinavian countries and the US are somewhere in between. I find strong and significant longer run co-movements especially around booming house prices for all of the sample countries. The analysis suggests the expansionary policy that cleans up after the burst of a bubble may exacerbate the risk of a new house price boom. The interrelation is hidden in the short run, because the co-movements are then rarely statistically significant. According to the wavelet evidence, developments of money and credit since the Great Recession or their decoupling in Japan suggest that it is more appropriate to examine the two variables separately in some circumstances.

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