scholarly journals The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
pp. 993-1029 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko ◽  
Gee Hee Hong
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Household Expenditures ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Regular Price

We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes, and average prices paid by consumers (“effective” prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many US metropolitan areas. Inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers. This difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers, a feature of the data which we document and quantify, rather than sales. We propose a simple model with household store-switching and assess its implications for business cycles and policymakers. (JEL D12, E31, E32, L25, L81)

scholarly journals Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?

1999 ◽  
Vol 89 (1) ◽  
pp. 249-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Galí
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Technology Shock ◽  
The Business Cycle

I estimate a decomposition of productivity and hours into technology and non-technology components. Two results stand out: (a) the estimated conditional correlations of hours and productivity are negative for technology shocks, positive for nontechnology shocks; (b) hours show a persistent decline in response to a positive technology shock. Most of the results hold for a variety of model specifications, and for the majority of G7 countries. The picture that emerges is hard to reconcile with a conventional real-business-cycle interpretation of business cycles, but is shown to be consistent with a simple model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices. (JEL E32, E24)

The Overall Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 436-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn Bushway ◽  
Matthew Phillips ◽  
Philip J. Cook
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Statistical Association ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Using Data

Abstract This paper analyses the 13 business cycles since 1933 to provide evidence on the old question of whether recessions cause crime. Using data from the United States, we find that recessions are consistently associated with an uptick in burglary and robbery, and a reduction in theft of motor vehicles. There is no statistical association with homicide. These patterns are suggestive of the relative importance of the various channels by which economic conditions influence crime.

New Patterns of Urbanization in Indonesia: Emergence of Non-statutory Towns and New Extended Urban Regions

2021 ◽  
pp. 097542532199038
Author(s):  
Fadjar Hari Mardiansjah ◽  
Paramita Rahayu ◽  
Deden Rukmana
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Urbanization Process ◽  
Urban Regions ◽  
Using Data

Indonesia is home to more than 260 million people and is one of the world’s most rapidly urbanizing countries. Between 1980 and 2010, Indonesia’s urban population grew about fourfold, from 32.8 to 118.3 million. Using data from National Census publications, this article examines the urbanization patterns and trends in urban growth in Indonesia from 1980 to 2010. The urbanization process has increased the number of cities in Indonesia from 50 to 94 and expanded large urban regions. Most of these expanded urban regions are located on the island of Java, including the metropolitan areas of Jakarta, Bandung, Surabaya, Semarang, Malang, Surakarta and Yogyakarta. The article also identifies the emergence of non-statutory towns and new extended urban regions outside the jurisdictions of urban municipalities. The policy implications of the emergence of such urban areas are additionally discussed.

The Micro-Origins of Business Cycles: Evidence from German Metropolitan Areas

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-48
Author(s):  
Federica Daniele ◽  
Heiko Stüber
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Local Concentration ◽  
Form Analysis ◽  
Productivity Distribution ◽  
German Cities

How large is volatility due to large firms? We answer this question through both reduced-form analysis and a calibration exercise. First, we exploit time and spatial variation across German cities and show that i) higher concentration is associated with more persistent local business cycles, ii) local concentration Granger-causes local employment volatility. From a business cycle perspective, we find evidence in favor of granularity-driven recessions only. Next, we calibrate a structural model along the lines of Carvalho and Grassi (2019) and find that the more fat-tailed productivity distribution in bigger cities crucially depends also on the higher probability for firms to grow.

Globalization, Superstars, and Reputation: Theory & Evidence from the Wine Industry

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Gibbs ◽  
Mikel Tapia ◽  
Frederic Warzynski
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Wine Industry ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
Wine Market ◽  
Using Data

AbstractWe develop a simple model of the effects of reputation on prices. An increasing fraction of consumers who are “naive” (less informed about quality) results in a stronger sensitivity of prices to ratings of quality. We then argue that this may be a factor in price dynamics for goods that become more widely traded as a result of globalization. We then provide some empirical analysis of these ideas using data on prices and Robert Parker's ratings of wines. Wine prices are strongly related to ratings, and even more so for higher quality wine categories. In addition, changes in Parker ratings for the same wine result in large price changes. Price elasticities with respect to ratings have risen dramatically since 1993. One plausible explanation for this is the growing globalization of the fine wine market, which increases the prevalence of naive wine consumers. (JEL Classification: D8, F1, L1, Q1)

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

Government Spending in a Simple Model of Real Business Cycle

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Kühl Teles ◽  
Fernando Antônio Ribeiro Soares
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Real Business Cycle

Factors affecting desired family size in Bangladesh

1994 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 369-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kabir ◽  
Ruhul Amin ◽  
Ashraf Uddin Ahmed ◽  
Jamir Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Family Size ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Work Status ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Rural Bangladesh ◽  
Contraceptive Prevalence ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Desired Family Size

SummaryFactors affecting desired family size in rural Bangladesh are examined using data from contraceptive prevalence surveys conducted between 1983 and 1991. The analysis suggests that mothers having two sons and one daughter are more inclined to perceive their family as complete than those having three sons and no daughter. Logistic regression analysis indicates that important determinants of desire for more children are age of woman, current contraceptive use status, work status, and family planning worker's visit. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

scholarly journals News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 993-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Franck Portier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Way Of Thinking ◽  
The Many

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established. (JEL D83, D84, E13, E32, O33)

scholarly journals ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN BANKING, CONFIDENCE SHOCKS, AND BUSINESS CYCLES

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1069-1090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott J. Dressler ◽  
Erasmus K. Kersting
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Nominal Rigidities ◽  
Equilibrium Indeterminacy ◽  
Economic Volatility ◽  
Over Time

Equilibrium indeterminacy due to economies of scale (ES) in financial intermediation is quantitatively examined in a monetary business-cycle environment. Financial intermediation provides deposits that serve as a substitute for currency to purchase consumption, and depositing decisions are susceptible to nonfundamental shocks to confidence. The analysis considers various assumptions on nominal rigidities and the timing of deposit decisions. The results suggest that indeterminacy arises for small ES, and the resulting confidence shocks qualitatively mimic monetary shocks. A calibration exercise concludes that U.S. economic volatility from this nonfundamental source has increased over time while volatility from fundamental sources has decreased.

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