scholarly journals The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (2) ◽  
pp. 275-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erzo F. P. Luttmer ◽  
Andrew A. Samwick
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Welfare Cost ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Individual Welfare ◽  
Expected Benefits ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Consumption Fluctuations

Policy uncertainty reduces individual welfare when individuals have limited opportunities to mitigate or insure against the resulting consumption fluctuations. We field an original survey to measure the degree of perceived policy uncertainty in Social Security benefits and to estimate the impact of this uncertainty on individual welfare. Our central estimates show that on average individuals are willing to forgo 6 percent of the benefits they are supposed to get under current law to remove the policy uncertainty associated with their future Social Security benefits. This translates to a risk premium from policy uncertainty equal to 10 percent of expected benefits. (JEL D14, D81, H55)

scholarly journals The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study

2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-214770
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Richardson ◽  
Martin Taulbut ◽  
Mark Robinson ◽  
Andrew Pulford ◽  
Gerry McCartney
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Tax Credits ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Group Sex ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Welfare Reforms ◽  
Detrimental Impact

BackgroundLife expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare ‘reforms’ have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland.MethodsWe applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms.ResultsWe estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (−20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (−23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males.InterpretationThis study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.

scholarly journals Safe-Haven Assets, Financial Crises, and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from the Last Two Decades (2000–2018)

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Marco Tronzano
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
Global Investors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Portfolio Shifts

This paper focuses on three “safe haven” assets (gold, oil, and the Swiss Franc) and examines the impact of recent financial crises and some macroeconomic variables on their return co-movements during the last two decades. All financial crises produced significant increases in conditional correlations between these asset returns, thus revealing consistent portfolio shifts from more traditional towards safer financial instruments during turbulent periods. The world equity risk premium stands out as the most relevant macroeconomic variable affecting return co-movements, while economic policy uncertainty indicators also exerted significant effects. Overall, this evidence points out that gold, oil, and the Swiss currency played an important role in global investors’ portfolio allocation choices, and that these assets preserved their essential “safe haven” properties during the period examined.

scholarly journals La notion de famille et son impact en droit social

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-54
Author(s):  
Mireille D. Castelli
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Family Relationships ◽  
General Picture ◽  
The Family ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact

This paper surveys references to the family in social legislation, with more specific regard to social security schemes providing coverage to a broad section of the population. Such references are seen as involving two types of questions. First, do statutory references to the family invoke a definite concept of the family cell ? And second, in what ways do family relationships influence one's position under social security legislation ? Thus the first part of the paper is an attempt to elucidate the concept of the family underlying social security legislation. This is done by considering the legislative treatment of three components of family relationships, which seem to play, either separately or in conjunction, a particularly significant role in statutes of this type : the network of interpersonal relationships that are included in the family, the concept of dependency, and the consequences attributed to cohabitation. The second part of the paper surveys the impact of family relationships on rights and duties under social security legislation. This part opens with a broad description of social legislation generally, followed by a threefold classification of social security schemes according to the type of economic hazard against which compensation is provided: loss of income, lack of income, increase in needs. The impact of family relationships in each group of statutes is then brought under detailed analysis, and a number of anomalies are pointed out. The general picture disclosed by the paper is one of severe confusion, both as to the concept of the family itself and as to the impact of family relationships on social security benefits. While inconsistencies of the latter kind may be explained and justified in a number of cases, it seems desirable that a single concept of the family be adhered to in all social security statutes. This, however, should not preclude variations where warranted by the policy of the Act, general standards of morality, or the particular purpose sought by statutory reference to family relationships.

Late Career Job Loss and Retirement Behavior of Couples

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Health And Retirement Study ◽  
Budget Constraints ◽  
Unexpected Earnings ◽  
Retirement Behavior ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Retirement Study

This article argues that wealth uncertainty influences when couples choose to retire. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, I show that wives delay retirement when their husbands retire following a job loss. This effect is stronger when husbands are the primary earners, and couples are relatively poorer. This provides evidence of intra-household insurance that mitigates the impact of an unexpected earnings shock. I find that wives tend to delay retirement only until they become eligible for social security. This suggests that social security benefits can relax households’ budget constraints and allow wives to join their husbands in retirement.

Banking crises and social policy: the case of Latin America and the Caribbean

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana S. Gautam
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Banking Crises ◽  
Social Welfare Policy ◽  
Social Expenditure ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Distributional Conflicts ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the social policy consequences of systemic banking crises or financial crises in 13 Latin American and Caribbean countries between 1990 and 2010. It takes a rationalist approach to political economy to analyse the effect of these crises on aggregate social policy spending and on four distinct social welfare policy programmes – education, health, housing, and social security – benefits of which vary across social groups. The results indicate that banking crises have a statistically strong negative effect on aggregate social expenditure, but the impact is not uniform across the four programmes. While social security spending increases during the course of crises, health and education expenditures decrease in the same period. The results reinforce the view that distributional conflicts overshadow governments’ response and the burden of crises is unevenly shared in a heterogeneous society. These findings are robust to alternative specifications.

scholarly journals The uptake of social security benefits among psychiatric day hospital patients

1989 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 626-627 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel S. Allen ◽  
Renate West
Keyword(s):  
Medical Journal ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Mentally Ill ◽  
Social Security System ◽  
Security System ◽  
Day Hospital ◽  
The Social ◽  
Hospital Patients ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact

A leader in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) last year (Marks, 1988) suggested that the uptake of social security benefits among mentally ill people is low. However, this statement was based on the only data the writer could find – a study of 37 patients conducted in Islington based on the old social security system, prior to April 1988 (Linney & Boswell, 1987). Two weeks later, another BMJ leader (Marcovitch, 1988) bemoaned the fact that insufficient research had been conducted on the impact of changes in the social security system.

scholarly journals An Assessment of the Proposals of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Diamond ◽  
Peter R. Orszag
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
The Other ◽  
Retirement Income ◽  
Trust Fund ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Individual Accounts

Abstract The President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security proposed three plans for reforming Social Security. All of them would create individual accounts financed by diverting funds from the Social Security Trust Fund. One of the three Commission proposals (Model 1) would not restore long-term balance to Social Security. This paper focuses on the other two proposals - Models 2 and 3 - which would restore long-term balance. Models 2 and 3 contain a number of elements and are quite complicated. To understand the plans, we describe their proposed changes to Social Security benefits (which we refer to as "traditional benefits"), the individual accounts that the plans would establish, the combined effect on retirement income from the changes in traditional Social Security benefits and the individual accounts, and the impact on Social Security financing and the rest of the budget.

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