scholarly journals Persuasion: A Case Study of Papal Influences on Fertility-Related Beliefs and Behavior

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 250-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vittorio Bassi ◽  
Imran Rasul
Keyword(s):  
Unprotected Sex ◽  
Persuasive Messages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Timing Of Births ◽  
Short Run ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Dhs Surveys ◽  
Informative Communication

We study the persuasive impacts of non-informative communication on the short-run beliefs and long-run behavior of individuals. We do so in the context of the Papal visit to Brazil in October 1991, in which persuasive messages related to fertility were salient in Papal speeches during the visit. We use individual's exposure to such messages to measure how persuasion shifts short-run beliefs such as intentions to contracept and long-term fertility outcomes such as the timing and total number of births. To measure the short-run causal impact of persuasion, we exploit the fact the Brazil 1991 DHS was fielded in the weeks before, during, and after the Papal visit. We use this fortuitous timing to identify that persuasion significantly reduced individual intentions to contracept by more than 40 percent relative to pre-visit levels, and increased the frequency of unprotected sex by 30 percent. We measure the long-run causal impacts of persuasion on fertility outcomes using later DHS surveys to conduct an event study analysis on births in a five-year window on either side of the 1991 Papal visit. Estimating a hazard model of fertility, we find a significant change in births 9 months post-visit, corresponding to a 1.6 percent increase in the aggregate birth cohort. Our final set of results examine the very long-run impact of persuasion and document the impacts to be on the timing of births rather than on total fertility. (JEL D83, J13, N36)

Where Did All the Dollars Go? The Effect of Cash Flows on Capital and Asset Structure

2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1259-1294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudipto Dasgupta ◽  
Thomas H. Noe ◽  
Zhen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Short And Long Term

AbstractThis paper documents the short- and long-term balance sheet effect of cash flows. We show that cash savings in the short run and debt reduction in both the short and the long run account for a substantial fraction of cash flow use. Although, in the long run, investment exhibits substantial sensitivity to cash flows, investment does not absorb the entire cash flow shock. In fact, the tighter the financial constraints, the smaller the fraction of cash flow absorbed by investment and the more by leverage reduction. Firms stage their response to increases in cash flow, delaying investment while building up cash stocks and reducing leverage. These results suggest that much of the short-run economic effect of cash flow shocks to the corporate sector may be channeled into the corporate debt market rather than the capital goods market, especially when financing constraints tighten.

The Real Effects of Military Spending on Security

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lloyd J. Dumas
Keyword(s):  
Military Spending ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Physical Security ◽  
Dead Weight ◽  
Economic Relationships ◽  
Real Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

AbstractThe indirect effects of military spending on security are stronger and more important than its direct effects, and its long run impact more telling than its short run impact. In the short run, military spending can be a source of both physical security and economic stimulus. In the long run, it can be counterproductive in terms of physical security and will be a dead weight on the economy. How a society’s productive resources are deployed, as between military spending and more economically productive activities, sets it on a long-term course with powerful implications for the ability of its economy to do what it is supposed to do – provide for the material well-being of the population as a whole. The mechanism by which the extensive and extended diversion of productive economic resources to economically unproductive military spending drags an economy down is analyzed. Furthermore, it is possible to use properly structured international and domestic economic relationships in place of threats or use of military force to increase national and international security, while at the same time enhancing, rather than degrading, economic wellbeing. Three principles for structuring such a “peacekeeping economy” are set forth.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Liquidity-Adjusted Benchmark Yield Curves: A Look at Trading Concentration and Information

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 491-518 ◽  
Author(s):  
William T. Lin ◽  
David S. Sun
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Information Discovery ◽  
Affine Term Structure ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fitting Method ◽  
Bond Issues ◽  
Short Run

Estimation of benchmark yield curve in developing markets is often influenced by liquidity concentration. Based on an affine term structure model, we develop a long run liquidity weighted fitting method to address the trading concentration phenomenon arising from horizon-induced clientele equilibrium as well as information discovery. Specifically, we employ arguments from models of liquidity concentration and benchmark security information. After examining time series behavior of price errors against our fitted model, we find results consistent with both the horizon and information hypotheses. Our evidence indicates that trading liquidity carries information effect in the long run, which cannot be fully captured in the short run. Trading liquidity plays a key role in long run term structure fitting. Markets for liquid benchmark government bond issues collectively form a long term equilibrium. Compared with previous studies, our results provide a robust and realistic characterization of the spot rate term structure and related price forecasting over time, which in turn help portfolio investment of fixed income and long run pricing of financial instruments.

scholarly journals The Long Term Impact of A Rainforest Experience on Chinese Students’ Pro-Environmental Identity and Behavior in Macau

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 01022
Author(s):  
Nga Ian Tam
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Chinese Students ◽  
Household Waste ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Environmental Identity ◽  
Learning Program ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
And Behavior

The phenomenological case study covers the limited research on Chinese students‟ experiences of nature in a tropical rainforest in Thailand. Macau is a very small place with only 20 % of natural resources remaining but Chinese students are born to be detached from these natural environments. Their comfortable lifestyle leads to a rise of unsustainable behavior such as an increased in consumption and household waste. With numerous researches that review the benefits of nature including an enhancement in environmental friendly behavior, a 7 d self-funded experiential learning program in a tropical rainforest in Thailand in 2015 was initiated in fostering 12 Chinese students‟ pro-environmental identity and behavior. Findings show the majority of students‟ pro-environmental identity and behavior is enhanced and they are trying to reconnect with the natural environment more often than before.

scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rate on Bangladesh’s Export: A Cointegration Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-30
Author(s):  
Takrima Sayeda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of the paper is to see if there is any relationship exist between free floating exchange rate and export performance of Bangladesh. It inspects the monthly data of exchange rate and export value for the time period between year 2000 and 2017. It utilized the Johansen [1] cointegration approach to identify the extent of long run and short run relationship between them. The study could not establish neither any long term trend nor any short term dynamics between the variables. Respective variables are significantly related to their own immediate past values. Distant past values do not have any implications. This study suggests that short run macroeconomic policy would be beneficial to influence the foreign exchange market and eventually the performance of export of Bangladesh.

scholarly journals Are the Responses of Sectoral Energy Imports Asymmetric to Exchange Rate Volatilities in Pakistan? Evidence From Recent Foreign Exchange Regime

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Saqib ◽  
Tze-Haw Chan ◽  
Alexey Mikhaylov ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

Growing energy demand but stagnant production followed by volatile exchange rate leads Pakistan to energy imbalances and potential economic contraction. Yet, studies on sectoral energy imports are limited and inconclusive without accessing the asymmetric effect of currency fluctuations. We examine the impacts of Pakistani rupee volatility on monthly energy imports based on the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimations. Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests were used to conduct unit root testing, and the bound testing approach was used to examine the long-term cointegration. The long-run asymmetry was tested with the Wald test, and using the NARDL model, we examined both short-run and long-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on energy imports. The bound test was established and supported through ECMt−1 (t-test), cointegrating the relationship between exchange rate volatility and energy imports in a long term. Among others, both short-run and long-run asymmetric effects were found for crude oil, coal, electricity, and petroleum products. Rupee depreciation increased crude oil and electricity imports, while the appreciation effects were insignificant. Overall, the empirical assessment reveals that the foreign exchange volatility effect is sectoral specific and asymmetric in Pakistan. It offers new insights into re-strategizing the energy policy and refining the import substitution plan.

Labor shares and inequality: insights from Italian economic history, 1895–19701

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Gabbuti
Keyword(s):  
Income Distribution ◽  
Economic History ◽  
Italian History ◽  
The Past ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Functional Distribution ◽  
Distribution Of Income

Abstract This article develops theoretical and practical motivations for studying the functional distribution of income in the past. Italy is adopted as a case study, because of the availability of long-run estimates on personal inequality and of the long-lasting incidence of self-employment. New labor shares for 1895–1970 show Italian workers accruing a low share of income until 1945; by the end of the 1950s, they rapidly converged to the European average. Italian history shows that functional income distribution deepens our understanding of long- and short-run distributional trends and makes a compelling case for approaching inequality by combining diverse sources and methodologies.

ASSESSING THE LINKAGES BETWEEN THE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC FACTORS IN A LANDLOCKED ECONOMY: CASE STUDY OF LAO PDR

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
NISIT PANTHAMIT ◽  
CHUKIAT CHAIBOONSRI
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Relationship Analysis ◽  
Explanatory Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research paper aims to investigate linkages of electricity consumption representing energy security with estimated factors — GDP, population and foreign direct investment (FDI) during 1998–2018 for Laos People Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) by using ARDLbased Bayesian inference. This study provided empirical evidence on a long-run linear relationship analysis under ARDL-based Bayesian inference, which concludes that they have performed real relationships between electricity consumption, GDP, population and FDI. In addition, in the short-run, it was found that explanatory factors have both negative and positive impacts on Laos’ electricity consumption. The results confirm the hypothesis that although Lao PDR has access to domestic energy resources, only relying on one energy resource will make the energy system insecure. Thus, Lao PDR must develop substantial infrastructures and alternative renewable energies to support the campaign of Lao PDRs electricity security in the long-run.

scholarly journals Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Abdul Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Support Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Of Support

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of support price on wheat production in Pakistan during the period 1971–2016.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the effect of support price on wheat production, the authors estimated the long-run linkage by using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsThis study confirmed the presence of a positive and long-term effect of area under cultivation, support price and fertilizer consumption on wheat production through ARDL bounds test. The results showed that both in the long run and short run, support price plays an important role in the enhancement of wheat production. The authors also found that the coefficients of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption variables were statistically significant and positive both in the long run and short run.Originality/valueThe use of the ARDL approach that examines the long-run and short-run effects of support price on wheat production in Pakistan makes the current study unique. An emerging economic literature suggests that only limited research has been conducted in this area.

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