scholarly journals The Political Premium of Television Celebrity

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Heyu Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Ronald Reagan ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Experimental Variation ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
Election Studies

This paper studies the electoral consequences of television stardom through the career of Ronald Reagan. I utilize quasi-experimental variation in television reception to estimate the causal effect of celebrity exposure on political support. I find that Reagan’s tenure as the host of a 1950s entertainment television program translated into support for his candidacy, in terms of votes and political donations, nearly two decades after the show’s first airing. Placebo checks suggest that this impact is not driven by unobserved heterogeneity or omitted variable bias. The effect was especially pronounced in the 1976 Republican primary elections relative to the general presidential elections and partially dissipated in locations where Reagan was a known political entity. Using the American National Election Studies (ANES) surveys, I provide evidence on possible mechanisms. Consistent with rational updating, nonpolitical media increased voters’ assessment of Reagan’s character and leadership, personalizing political considerations in elections featuring him. (JEL D72, L82, Z13)

The Impact of ICT Investment on Establishment Productivity

2003 ◽  
Vol 184 ◽  
pp. 99-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Zwick
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Lagged Effects ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
Employee Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Establishment Panel Data

This paper finds substantial effects of ICT investments on productivity for a large and representative German establishment panel data set. In contrast to the bulk of the literature also establishments without ICT capital are included and lagged effects of ICT investments are analysed. In addition, a broad range of establishment and employee characteristics are taken account of in order to avoid omitted variable bias. It is shown that taking into account unobserved heterogeneity of the establishments and endogeneity of ICT investments increases the estimated lagged productivity impact of ICT investments.

Quantifying the Consequences of Missing School: Linking School Nurses to Student Absences to Standardized Achievement

2013 ◽  
Vol 115 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Michael A. Gottfried
Keyword(s):  
School District ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Experimental Methods ◽  
School Factors ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Reading And Math ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
Teacher Classroom

Background/Context Parents, policymakers, and researchers uphold that missing school has negative implications on schooling success, particularly for students in urban schools. However, it has thus far been an empirical challenge within educational research to estimate the true effect that absences have on achievement outcomes. This study addresses this issue by applying multiple quasi-experimental methods and, subsequently, contributes a more accurate understanding of the pervasive, negative effects of missing school. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of the Study The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of individual-level absences on individual-level standardized testing achievement (reading and math) in an urban school district. Population/Participants/Subjects The dataset compiled for this study is multilevel and longitudinal and is comprised of five elementary school cohorts within the School District of Philadelphia, for a total of N=20,932 student observations over three academic years. Individual student records were linked to teacher, classroom, and school administrative data as well as to census residential-block neighborhood information. Research Design This study combines secondary data analyses and quasi-experimental methods. This study begins with a baseline, linear model of achievement, where the dependent variables are Stanford Achievement Test Ninth Edition (SAT9) reading and math scores. To address issues pertaining to omitted variable bias, this study employs three methods: fixed effects, value-added, and instrumental variable models. Findings Consistently across all methods employed in this study, the results indicate a potentially causal, detrimental negative effect of absences on both reading and math standardized achievement. The effects remain significant even after accounting for additional student, neighborhood, teacher, classroom, and school factors. Conclusions/Recommendations This study demonstrates that after accounting for omitted variable bias in multiple capacities, the negative relationship between absences and achievement is even more detrimental than reported in previous research. With a more detailed and realistic prediction of the negative ramifications of missing school, it now becomes possible to develop data-driven educational policy.

Endogenous democracy: causal evidence from the potato productivity shock in the old world

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Joan Barceló ◽  
Guillermo Rosas
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Transition To Democracy ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Old World ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Productivity Shock ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Evidence

Abstract Despite a high cross-country correlation between development and democracy, it is difficult to gauge the impact of economic development on the probability that autocracies will transition to democracy because of endogeneity, especially due to reverse causation and omitted variable bias. Hence, whether development causes democracy remains a contested issue. We exploit exogeneity in the regional variation of potato cultivation along with the timing of the introduction of potatoes to the Old World (i.e., a potato productivity shock) to identify a causal effect of urbanization, a proxy for economic development, on democratization. Our results, which hold under sensitivity analyses that question the validity of the exclusion restriction, present new evidence of the existence of a causal effect of economic development on democracy.

scholarly journals The Impact of Lagging-Region Status on District Poverty in Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Rus’an Nasrudin
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Propensity Score Matching ◽  
Selection Bias ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
The Impact

Reducing subnational imbalances of development progress is unquestionable policy for heterogeneous Indonesia. This paper examines the impact of policy that assigns a lagging-region status namely status daerah tertinggal (DT) on poverty rate and poverty gap among districts in Indonesia in the two period of SBY presidency. The panel data fixed effect combined with propensity score matching is used to tackle the selection bias due to the nature of the policy, unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variable bias. The results show that the lagging-region status that was aimed to mainstream central and district’s budget toward lagging regions statistically significant reduces poverty rate and poverty gap in the period. The DT status, on average is associated with 0.75 percentage point of reduction in the poverty rate and 7% reduction in the poverty gap index. AbstrakMenurunkan ketimpangan antar-daerah adalah sebuah agenda kebijakan yang niscaya untuk Indonesia yang majemuk dalam kemajuan ekonomi. Artikel ini berusaha mengukur dampak dari sebuah kebijakan penetapan daerah tertinggal terhadap dua ukuran kemiskinan, yaitu tingkat kemiskinan dan kedalaman kemiskinan pada dua periode masa jabatan Presiden SBY. Metode yang dipergunakan adalah panel data fixed-effect dikombinasikan dengan propensity score matching untuk mengatasi permasalah endogen pada variabel utama yaitu bias dalam seleksi terhadap kebijakan, keragaman daerah yang tidak dapat diukur, dan potensi bias karena ketiadaan variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap dua ukuran kemiskinan. Hasil pendugaan regresi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa penetapan daerah tertinggal yang ditujukan untuk mengarusutamakan dana pembangunan secara statistik signifikan dan menyebabkan penurunan tingkat kemiskinan dan kedalaman kemiskinan di masa tersebut. Daerah tertinggal secara rata-rata memiliki tingkat kemiskinan lebih rendah sebesar 0.75 (persentase) dan memiliki indeks kedalaman kemiskinan 7% lebih rendah.Kata kunci: Daerah Tertinggal; Kemiskinan; IndonesiaJEL classifications: I32, P48

Understanding the relationship between health and internal migration in the United Kingdom

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 432-448
Author(s):  
Rabi’u Isah Moh’d ◽  
Joseph Boniface Ajefu
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Physical Health ◽  
Internal Migration ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose Studies on the relationship between migration and health status of individuals most often concentrate on international migrants. In contrast, the purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between health and internal migration using the first 18 waves of the British Household Survey. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the 12-version of General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), an indicator of mental health, and physical health indicators as the health variables. This study uses different econometrics estimation methods in modelling the relationship in order to address omitted variable bias as well as unobserved heterogeneity. The econometric estimation methods include Pooled OLS, random effects (RE), fixed effects (FE) and then probit RE. The authors explore the relationship by comparing the health status of movers and non-movers and different types of internal migration such as between local authority districts and between regions. Findings The results of this research suggest that there is healthy migrant effect on migration within UK on some indicators of physical health like arm/leg, heart and migraine/headache problems, but not on mental health indicator. And the effects are similar for both males and females. It is advised therefore that the department of health should improve the health of those affected by these ailments so that they can have a chance to move perhaps to better their lots. Originality/value This study uses different econometrics estimation methods in modelling the relationship in order to address omitted variable bias as well as unobserved heterogeneity. The econometric estimation methods include Pooled OLS, RE, FE and then probit RE.

scholarly journals On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-59
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Tim Willems
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Experimental Variation ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Economic Forecasts ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach ◽  
Excessive Accumulation

Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions a few years later. To isolate the causal effect, we take an instrumental variable approach—exploiting randomness in the country allocation of IMF mission chiefs. We first document that IMF mission chiefs differ in their individual degrees of forecast optimism, yielding quasi-experimental variation in the degree of forecast optimism at the country level. The mechanism appears to run through excessive accumulation of debt (public and private). Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects. (JEL C53, E23, E27, E32, F33, H63)

The Link between Relative Pay and Job Satisfaction Revisited

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Eberl ◽  
Matthias Collischon
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Time Trends ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Work Values ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Reference Group ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Variable Bias

Abstract This paper investigates the connection between job satisfaction and comparison pay (defined as a person’s rank within a reference group) with SOEP Data. Based on work values and social networks, we argue that the existing literature neglects heterogeneities in individual job satisfaction as well as wage trajectories along the career path. Thus, previous studies based on survey data likely overestimate the connection between job satisfaction and comparison pay. We use fixed-effects individual slopes models to account for heterogeneous time trends between individuals. We find no statistically significant correlation between comparison pay and job satisfaction. We conclude that previous estimates were biased by not accounting for idiosyncratic trends in job satisfaction due to unobserved heterogeneity, which led to an omitted variable bias.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document