scholarly journals Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises— The Role of Information Shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Jarociński ◽  
Peter Karadi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Role Of Information ◽  
Structural Vector ◽  
Economic Outlook

Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency co-movement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy nonneutrality. (JEL D83, E43, E44, E52, E58, G14)

scholarly journals ROMANIAN INTERBANK INTEREST RATES AND CENTRAL BANK’S MONETARY POLICY

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 487-506
Author(s):  
Giovanni Verga ◽  
Nicoleta Vasilcovschi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The European Union ◽  
European System ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
Main Determinants

Interbank rates are affected by the monetary policy of a country and represent a link to other financial and credit markets. In 2007, Romania became a member of the European Union and its central bank, the National Bank of Romania (NBR), joined the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) but not the Eurosystem. This paper analyses the role of the central bank and the use of its instruments concerning interbank rates. The research evaluates the influence of the Romanian Central Bank on interbank rates and shows that the policy rate and bank liquidity are among the main determinants of interbank rate movements. It is also presented that the NBR’s deposit and lending rates can limit the free movements of the interbank rate of interest. This research confirms that interbank interest rates influence bank rates strongly. The methodology used in this research includes cointegration, dynamic econometric measurement and analyses with Granger causality. Our research uses mainly ROBID and ROBOR of different maturities, showing that the influence of the Romanian Central Bank (NBR) on the interbank rate is strong, while the influence of the ECB and Fed is weak.

scholarly journals Monetary policy effects on equity returns: application of SVAR identified with high-frequency external instrument

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Woon Wook Jang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Identification Approach ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
Cash Flow News ◽  
Structural Vector

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of monetary policy on equity returns by applying an alternative econometric approach. Campbell and Ammer (1993) decomposed unexpected equity excess returns into three news components: risk premium news, real interest rate news and cash-flow news. The literature has determined the monetary policy (MP) effects on these news components. The authors propose an alternative MP shock identification approach to analyze the MP effects on the above-mentioned news components under a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) setup. Under this approach, one can apply an MP indicator in the SVAR, which helps forecast equity excess returns along with its external instruments for identification. Further, this study uses the various recently proposed measures of exogenous MP shocks and Fed information shocks as external instruments, and shows the different patterns of the news components' responses depending on the information in the applied instruments.

scholarly journals Discretion of the Monetary Policy: An Exemplification with Bolivia

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero ◽  
Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez ◽  
Sacnicté Valdez del Ríoe
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Elastic Response ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Economic Cycle

Abstract In this paper, we evaluate and quantify the role of the discretion of the monetary policy in an open small and open economy (the case of Bolivia). The results suggest that conventional instruments of the Central Bank respond in different ways: interest rates present a sensitive/elastic response to output gap (actual economic cycle) [1.8]; an inelastic mechanism to inflation [0.5]. On the other hand, open market operations in the Central Bank responds elastically to inflation [1.2] and insensible to the output gap. These results are robust to alternative specification utilizing the Generalized Method of moments (GMM), for the quarterly period from 2000(T1)-2015(T4).

scholarly journals Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Indonesia: revisiting the role of Divisia money

2020 ◽  
Vol 185 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 91-98
Author(s):  
Maggie May-Jean Tang ◽  
◽  
Chin-Hong Puah ◽  
I Gusti Ayu Purnamawati ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Transmission Mechanisms ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Structural Vector

This study examines the performance of monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Indonesia from the money view. The best choice of a monetary policy transmission channel has been a topic of debate for many years among researchers as well as central banks. This is mainly due to the inconsistent performance of different channels across countries and period of time. Therefore, it is crucial for policymakers to have a prior understanding of the strengths of the various monetary policy transmission channels. The role of Divisia money in the process of transmission mechanism has also been considered in the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model of this study with eight variables and quarterly data from 1984Q1 to 2019Q4. In Indonesia, interest-rates are the major tool used by the central bank to achieve the targeted inflation rate. However, our empirical analysis has shown otherwise, suggesting that other channels are better in ensuring the transmission smoothness of the monetary policy. In addition, depending on whether a short- or long-run effect is desired, a different channel should be adopted to transmit the intended impact. This study has affirmed the superiority of Divisia money since most of the fluctuations in the key domestic macroeconomic variables in Indonesia can be explained by the monetary aggregate.

scholarly journals The role of the czech national bank monetary instruments in interest rates targeting during transition

2001 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zdeněk Dvorný
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
National Bank

In this paper, the recent development of Czech interest rates during the Czech Republic's transition to a market economy is discussed. First, the situation in the economy and in the banking sector, as well as the monetary policy of the central bank during the period of 1990 - 1999 is presented. However, the main focus is on monetary policy instruments and their application during transition. The paper also describes the targeting of the central bank's policy by using direct limitations in banking during 1990 - 1991 and refinancing instruments exploited during the period of 1991 - 1992. Finally, the central bank's orientation towards free market operations, starting in 1993, is discussed.

scholarly journals Money Decentralization under Direct Democracy Procedures. The Case of Classical Athens

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Emmanouil-Marios L. Economou ◽  
Nicholas C. Kyriazis ◽  
Nikolaos A. Kyriazis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Hellenistic Period ◽  
International Currency ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Mediterranean World ◽  
The Stability ◽  
City State

By analyzing the case of Athens during the Classical period (508-323 BCE) the main thesis of this paper is that under direct democracy procedures and the related institutional setup, a monetary system without a Central Bank may function relatively well. We focus on the following issues: (i) Τhe procedures of currency issuing in the Athenian city-state, (ii) why the Athenian drachma become the leading international currency in the Mediterranean world (iii) how and towards which targets monetary policy without a Central Bank was possible (iv) defining the targets of monetary policy and the mechanisms for its implementation (v) the role of money in the economy (vi) the issue of deficit spending (vii) the reasons of the replacement of the Athenian drachma as a leading currency by others from the Hellenistic period onwards (viii) the correlation of our findings regarding the decentralized character of monetary policy in Classical Athens to today’s realities, such as the issue of cryptocurrencies. Our analysis shows that monetary policy without a Central Bank was possible, with its foremost aim being the stability of the currency (mainly, silver coins) in order to enhance trust in it and so, make it an international currency which could outcompete other currencies. Since there was no Central Bank like today, monetary policy decisions were taken by the popular assembly of citizens in combination with the market forces themselves.

Central Bank Liquidity Management and the Signal Extraction Problem on the Money Market / Die Liquiditätssteuerung der Notenbank und das Signal-extraktionsproblem am Geldmarkt

2000 ◽  
Vol 220 (3) ◽  
pp. 284-301
Author(s):  
Ulrich Bindseil
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Signal Extraction ◽  
Maintenance Period ◽  
Liquidity Management ◽  
Expectation Theory

Summary Understanding the factors determining overnight rates is crucial both for central bankers and private market participants, since, assuming the validity of the expectation theory of the term structure of interest rates, expectations with regard to this “monadic” maturity should determine longer term rates, which are deemed to be relevant for the transmission of monetary policy. The note proposes a simple model of the money market within a two-day long reserve maintenance period to derive relationships between the relevant quantities, expectations concerning these quantities for the rest of the reserve maintenance period, and overnight rates. It is argued that a signal extraction problem faced by banks when observing quantities such as their aggregate reserve holdings and allotment amounts of monetary policy operations is at the core of these relationships. The usefulness of the model is illustrated by applying it to the analysis of three alternative liquidity management strategies of a central bank.

scholarly journals Exiting from quantitative easing

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1069-1107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumio Hayashi ◽  
Junko Koeda
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
Structural Vector ◽  
Empirical Framework

We propose an empirical framework for analyzing the macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing (QE) and apply it to Japan. The framework is a regime‐switching structural vector autoregression in which the monetary policy regime, chosen by the central bank responding to economic conditions, is endogenous and observable. QE is modeled as one of the regimes. The model incorporates an exit condition for terminating QE. We find that higher reserves at the effective lower bound raise inflation and output, and that terminating QE may be contractionary or expansionary, depending on the state of the economy at the point of exit.

Sukuk and monetary policy transmission in Indonesia: the role of asset price and exchange rate channels

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suriani Suriani ◽  
M. Shabri Abd. Majid ◽  
Raja Masbar ◽  
Nazaruddin A. Wahid ◽  
Abdul Ghafar Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price and exchange rate channels in the Indonesian economy. Design/methodology/approach Using the monthly data from January 2003 to November 2017, this study uses a multivariate vector error correction model causality framework. To examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the asset price channel, this study uses the variables of consumption, inflation, interest rates, economic growth and the composite stock price index. Meanwhile, to examine the role of sukuk in the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the exchange rate channel, this study used variables of inflation, interest rates, economic growth, foreign investment and exchange rate. Findings This study documented that sukuk has no causal relationship with inflation through asset price and exchange rate channels. Nevertheless, sukuk has a bidirectional causal relationship with economic growth through asset price and exchange rate channels. Sukuk is also documented to have a causal relationship with monetary policy variables of interest rate and stock prices through asset price and exchange rate channels. Finally, a unidirectional causality is recorded running from the exchange rate to sukuk in the exchange rate channel. Research limitations/implications The finding of independence of the sukuk market from interest rates provides evidence that the trading of the sukuk in Indonesia has been in harmony with the Islamic tenets. Practical implications The relevant Indonesian authorities need to enhance both domestic and global sukuk markets as part of efforts to promote the sustainability of Islamic capital market development in Indonesia. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first attempts to empirically investigate the role of sukuk in monetary policy transmission through asset price and exchange rate channels in the context of the Indonesian economy.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document