scholarly journals Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 246-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis J Berge ◽  
Óscar Jordá
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Dating

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate three central aspects of this chronology. How skillful is the Dating Committee when classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? Which indices of economic conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And which indicators best predict future turning points, and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail using methods specifically designed to assess classification ability. In the process, we clarify several important features of the business cycle. (JEL C82, E32)

scholarly journals Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Magdalena Petrovska ◽  
Aneta Krstevska ◽  
Nikola Naumovski
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

The World Economy: Fiscal expansions in North America

2009 ◽  
Vol 207 ◽  
pp. 18-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
Iana Liadze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Definition Of

According to the formal dating of the business cycle by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the US economy reached a peak of economic activity in December 2007, which marks the beginning of the US recession. While some economists tend to refer to a technical recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP, the NBER uses a broader definition of ‘a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators'. The committee pays particular attention to payroll employment, which has declined by 1.9 per cent since the peak reached in December 2007, allowing the unemployment rate to reach 7.2 per cent in December 2008, the highest rate since 1992. We expect a sharper decline in US employment this year, and see the unemployment rate reaching 10½ per cent in 2010, the highest level since a brief peak in 1982.

EXPRESS: Households under Economic Change: How Micro- and Macroeconomic Conditions Shape Grocery Shopping Behavior

2021 ◽  
pp. 002224292110368
Author(s):  
Thomas P. Scholdra ◽  
Julian R. K. Wichmann ◽  
Maik Eisenbeiss ◽  
Werner J. Reinartz
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Shopping Behavior ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Grocery Shopping ◽  
National Brands ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Spending Behavior ◽  
Shopping Basket ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Structural Shifts

Economic conditions may significantly affect households' shopping behavior and, by extension, retailers' and manufacturers' firm performance. By explicitly distinguishing between two basic types of economic conditions—micro conditions in terms of households' personal income and macro conditions in terms of the business cycle—this study analyzes how households adjust their grocery shopping behavior. The authors observe more than 5,000 households over eight years and analyze shopping outcomes in terms of what, where, and how much they shop and spend. Results show that micro and macro conditions substantially influence shopping outcomes, but in very different ways. Microeconomic changes lead households to adjust primarily their overall purchase volume—that is, after losing income, households buy fewer products and spend less in total. In contrast, macroeconomic changes cause pronounced structural shifts in households' shopping basket allocation and spending behavior. Specifically, during contractions, households shift purchases toward private labels while also buying and consequently spending more than during expansions. During expansions, however, households increasingly purchase national brands but keep their total spending constant. The authors discuss psychological and sociological mechanisms that can explain the differential effects of micro and macro conditions on shopping behavior and develop important diagnostic and normative implications for retailers and manufacturers.

From the Business Cycle to the Output Cycle: Predicting South African Economic Activity

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-133
Author(s):  
C. Vermeulen ◽  
F. Joubert ◽  
A. Bosch ◽  
J. Rossouw
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The Business Cycle

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Final Part ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
The Business Cycle

Chapter 1 contains an overview of the book. Part I introduces key concepts, definitions, and stylized facts regarding long–run economic growth and stock returns.Part II analyses the relation between economic growth and stock returns in the long run. Part III examines the shorter-horizon relation between economic growth and stock returns: the relation over the business cycle. Part IV explains how to make reasonable projections for economic activity, both for the short and the long run. Part V deals with expected future stock returns. The final part, a short one including one chapter only, explains how one can use the insights from the book when making investments.

Judging the stance of the business cycle

2021 ◽  
pp. 222-240
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Business Cycle

This chapter describes if and how we can detect business-cycle turning points. What variables should we study if we want to say something about the likelihood that the business cycle will change? The chapter discusses business-cycle ‘indicators’. It distinguishes between lagging, coincident, and leading indicators. Lagging indicators refer to economic variables that react to a change in the business cycle, i.e. variables that react after a business-cycle turning point. Coincident indicators tell us something about where we are right now in the business cycle. Leading indicators, which are probably the most important ones, tell us about the near-term outlook for the business cycle, i.e. forecast the business cycle. The chapter emphasizes that business-cycle turning points are hard to predict, but also that some indicators are more informative than others.

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