scholarly journals Coupling of Currencies: An INR and USD Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 51-64
Author(s):  
Mayuree Barik ◽  
Aparna Rao
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to explore the relationship between the Indian Rupees (INR) and USDollars (USD). It further tries to identify whether the volatility of exchange rates is affected by various events. Bivariate causality tests have been run on the exchange rates of INR and USD which have revealed a coupled relationship between them. Further, it was found that the magnitude of the impact on the volatility of exchange rates varies according to the nature of the event.

An Empirical Analysis of FII Movement and Currency Value in India

2015 ◽  
pp. 207-217
Author(s):  
Saurabh Sen ◽  
Ruchi L. Sen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Institutional Investment ◽  
Currency Futures ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Foreign Institutional Investors ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

India opened its stock market to foreign investors in September 1992 and has received portfolio investment from foreigners in the form of foreign institutional investment in equities and other markets including derivatives. It has emerged as one of the most influential groups to play a critical role in the overall performance of the Indian economy. The liberalization of FII flows into the Indian capital market since 1993 has had a significant impact on the economy. With increased volatility in exchange rate and to mitigate the risk arising out of excess volatility, currency futures were introduced in India in 2008, which is considered a second important structural change. This chapter examines the impact of the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) on the exchange rate and analyzes the relationship between FII and Indian Rupee-US Dollar exchange rates.

Impact of exchange rates on exports from India’s sub-national economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-184
Author(s):  
Khee Giap Tan ◽  
Sasidaran Gopalan ◽  
Jigyasa Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
National Level ◽  
Skewed Distribution ◽  
Significant Finding ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Economies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of real effective exchange rates (REER), both in terms of levels and volatility, on the export performance of India’s sub-national economies, given the recent slowdown in India’s exports. Design/methodology/approach India’s export distribution is highly asymmetric, with 90 percent of India’s exports concentrated in 11 sub-national economies. Exploiting this concentration, this paper constructs a panel data set using available data between 2002 and 2014 to understand the relationship between REER and exports from the top exporting cluster. Moreover, the paper constructs a sub-national competitiveness index to capture the supply capacity of the states. Findings The empirical findings of this paper reveal that a higher REER volatility deters exports and movements in REER do not matter as much as volatility. The most significant finding of the paper is that state competitiveness is the most crucial factor affecting trade. Therefore, policy makers at the state level must lay more emphasis on the supply side such as addressing logistical bottlenecks to help revive exports growth. Originality/value This study makes a departure from the plethora of extant aggregate-level studies by examining the relationship between REER and exports at the sub-national level for India. Considering the highly skewed distribution of India’s exports, the study provides important insights into the exporting patterns and determinants that are at play at the sub-national level.

scholarly journals The Asymmetric Effect of Panic Index on Cryptocurrencies

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Necmiye Serap Vurur
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Asymmetric Causality ◽  
The Relationship

The Covid 19 pandemic is the first major crisis facing cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the reaction of the cryptocurrency markets is important. News about epidemics affects investors' decisions. Panic index (PIndex) is an index created from news about the Covid 19 outbreak. In the study, it is used to measure the impact of decisions on the crypto money market. As cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC), Etherium (ETH), and Ripple (XRP), which have the highest transaction volume in the crypto money market, are included in the analysis. The relationship between Panic Index and the three major cryptocurrencies with the largest share in the cryptocurrency market was investigated by Ardl and Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test. Traditional causality tests acknowledge that the effects of positive and negative changes are the same. However, there may be asymmetric information and different investor behaviors in financial markets. In the study, Hatemi-J [1] Asymmetric Causality Test was conducted to examine the asymmetric relationship and symmetric relationship between Pindex and cryptocurrencies by separating them into positive and negative shocks. According to the results of the Hatemi-J causality analysis, positive shocks in the panic index are the cause of negative shocks for all cryptocurrencies. In other words, increases in the panic index are caused to fall the value of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple cryptocurrencies decrease. The results show that cryptocurrencies were not a safe haven for the investor during the Covid 19 period, as they acted similarly to other financial assets.

The Impact of Shadow Banking on Economic Growth: Evidence from Cross Country Data (2006–2018)

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 2050010
Author(s):  
Sheunesu Zhou ◽  
D Tewari Dev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Shadow Banking ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Regular Review

Shadow banking has become an important part of many financial systems despite having contributed to the financial crisis of 2008/2009. This study analyzes the relationship between shadow banking and economic growth using a panel of 28 developed and emerging economies. We employ panel feasible GLS technique and find a positive association between shadow banking and economic growth in the long-run. Further, we test for the Finance–Growth relationship using Granger causality tests and find a bi-directional relationship between shadow banking and economic growth. Stock market development and bank credit also have positive bi-directional relationships with economic growth. Our findings emphasize the role of financial innovation in enhancing economic performance given a stable regulatory environment. We suggest regular review of macro-prudential policy to carter for new financial activities and also to allow for development of new financing techniques.

The Impact of Exchange Rate on Tourism Industry

2015 ◽  
pp. 107-118
Author(s):  
Meryem Samirkaş ◽  
Mustafa Can Samirkaş
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rates ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Tourism sector that is increasingly important in the world economy, developing rapidly in Turkey and provides a serious contributions to country's economy because Turkey consistently has a current account deficit, tourism is an important source of income. There are many factors affecting tourism; it is clear that the industry can be affected by changes in macroeconomic variables, just like any other economic focus. In this context, it is possible that the foreign exchange rate and changes in the value of various currencies can affect tourism, especially with regards to the demands of the tourists themselves. By using the Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests, this chapter focused on identifying the relationship between currency exchange rates and the demand for tourism in Turkey.

scholarly journals The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 577-605 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARC AUBOIN ◽  
MICHELE RUTA
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Global Production Networks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis paper surveys a wide body of economic literature on the relationship between exchange rates and trade. Specifically, two main issues are investigated: the impact of exchange rate volatility and of currency misalignments on international trade flows. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative (even if not large) impact on trade. The extent of this effect depends on a number of factors, including the existence of hedging instruments, the structure of production (e.g. the prevalence of small firms), and the degree of economic integration across countries. The second issue involves exchange rate misalignments, which are predicted to have short-run effects in models with price rigidities. However, the exact impact depends on a number of features, such as the pricing strategy of firms engaging in international trade and the importance of global production networks. Trade effects of currency misalignments are predicted to disappear in the long-run, unless an economy is characterized by other relevant distortions. Empirical results broadly confirm these theoretical predictions.

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Trade (Export and Import) in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Mehman Karimov
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Lag Selection ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

It is said that after globalization processes foreign direct investment start to influence trade moreover it is very complicated to deduce the relationship between trade and FDI according to theoretical analysis. Therefore, empirical studies showed that until the 1980s international trade generated direct investment but after 1980s FDI started to heavily influencing international trade. Also, results showed that the relationship can differ from one country to another. Thus, this paper is aimed to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment inflow on the macroeconomic variable as a Trade (Export, Import) in Turkey. The paper covers the time period from 1974 to 2017. The time series datasets, those are obtained from World Bank and IMF database are utilized in employed statistical models as ADF Unit Root, VAR lag selection, Johansen co-integration, and the Granger Causality tests, to fulfill empirical part of the paper. Based on results, it was confirmed that there was the presence of the co-integration between analyzed series. Additionally, results of Granger causality test showed that there is unidirectional causality from Export and Import to FDI.

scholarly journals Testing the absorber hypothesis of exchange rates for the overshooting of agricultural prices in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (No. 8) ◽  
pp. 327-336
Author(s):  
Jiawu Dai ◽  
Liurui Deng ◽  
Lan Yang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Agricultural Prices ◽  
Monetary Expansion ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Empirical Foundation

This study aims to test the overshooting effect of agricultural prices and the absorber hypothesis of exchange rates by extending the existing overshooting model. Using a combination of modern time series methods and monthly aggregate data from China, we demonstrate that overshooting of agricultural prices does indeed occur since the impact of monetary expansion on flexible agricultural prices is significantly larger than on relatively sticky industrial prices. Granger causality tests confirm that monetary expansion is a possible determinant of the movements of both agricultural and industrial prices, thus providing a solid empirical foundation for the overshooting hypothesis. Our findings also confirm the absorber hypothesis, in that the overshooting effect of agricultural prices under a fixed exchange rate regime (ERR) is shown to be greater than that under a floating ERR. The main policy implication is that policymakers should pay attention to the spillover effect of monetary expansion on agricultural prices when adjusting macroeconomic policies, especially under a fixed ERR.

scholarly journals ARE EXCHANGE RATES REALLY RANDOM WALKS? SOME EVIDENCE ROBUST TO PARAMETER INSTABILITY

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
BARBARA ROSSI
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Parameter Instability ◽  
Nested Models ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Better Than

Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested models that are robust to the presence of parameter instability. The empirical evidence shows that for some countries we can reject the hypothesis that exchange rates are random walks. This raises the possibility that economic models were previously rejected not because the fundamentals are completely unrelated to exchange rate fluctuations, but because the relationship is unstable over time and, thus, difficult to capture by Granger causality tests or by forecast comparisons. We also analyze forecasts that exploit the time variation in the parameters and find that, in some cases, they can improve over the random walk.

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Trade (Export and Import) in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Mehman Karimov
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Lag Selection ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

It is said that after globalization processes foreign direct investment start to influence trade moreover it is very complicated to deduce the relationship between trade and FDI according to theoretical analysis. Therefore, empirical studies showed that until the 1980s international trade generated direct investment but after 1980s FDI started to heavily influencing international trade. Also, results showed that the relationship can differ from one country to another. Thus, this paper is aimed to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment inflow on the macroeconomic variable as a Trade (Export, Import) in Turkey. The paper covers the time period from 1974 to 2017. The time series datasets, those are obtained from World Bank and IMF database are utilized in employed statistical models as ADF Unit Root, VAR lag selection, Johansen co-integration, and the Granger Causality tests, to fulfill empirical part of the paper. Based on results, it was confirmed that there was the presence of the co-integration between analyzed series. Additionally, results of Granger causality test showed that there is unidirectional causality from Export and Import to FDI.

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