تقييم ملاءمة معلومة التدفق النقدي في مجال التنبؤ بالفشل المالي : دراسة عينة من الشركات الجزائرية في الفترة 2003 - 2010 = Evaluation of Cash-Flow Information Relevance in Financial Failure Forecasting : A Case Study of Some Algerian Firms during the Period (2003 – 2010)

Author(s):  
خير الدين قريشي ◽  
محمد الجموعي قريشي

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Jooste

Purpose: With the introduction of the cash flow statement it became an integral part of financial reporting. A need arose to develop ratios for the effective evaluation of cash flow information. This article investigates cash flow ratios suggested by various researchers and suggests a list of ratios with the potential to predict financial failure. Design: The cash flow ratios suggested by researchers, from as early as 1966, are investigated and eight cash flow ratios selected for inclusion in an analysis to predict financial failure. Ten failed entities are selected for a cash flow evaluation by means of the selected ratios for five years prior to failure. For a comparison, non-failed entities in similar sectors are selected and also evaluated by means of the cash flow ratios. The mean values of each ratio, for each year prior to failure, were then calculated and the means of the failed entities were compared to the non-failed entities. Findings: The comparison revealed that cash flow ratios have predictive value with the cash flow to total debt identified as the best indicator of failure. It was also determined that, although failed entities have lower cash flows than non-failed entities, they also had smaller reserves of liquid assets. Furthermore, they have less capacity to meet debt obligations and they tend to incur more debt. The ratios of the failed entities were unstable and fluctuated from one year to the next. Finally, bankruptcy could be predicted three years prior to financial failure. Implications: Income statement and balance sheet ratios are not enough to measure liquidity. An entity can have positive liquidity ratios and increasing profits, yet have serious cash flow problems. Ratios developed from the cash flow statement should supplement traditional accrual-based ratios to provide additional information on the financial strengths and weaknesses of an entity .





2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 759-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Ross ◽  
Katie Dalton ◽  
Begum Sertyesilisik

This study aims to determine the accuracy of the cash flow models and to investigate if these models could be more accurate if they accounted for the potentially influential variables specific to individual construction projects. An analytical case study research strategy has been implemented in collecting data for the construction projects. The data collected has been tested against recognised models. Statistical analyses have been carried out on the data for the specified variables, culminating in the potential proposal of an improved model with respect to these identified variables. The results revealed that the independent variables (type of construction, procurement route and type of work) affect the cash flow forecast. The findings suggested that a model could be more accurate with the input of more job-specific variables and that Hudson's DHSS model is best suited to a construction project procured traditionally. Adopting the ‘trial and error’ approach, Hudson's DHSS model has been recognised as an accurate model that could be adapted slightly, through changing the parameter values. The clients and the contractors are the main beneficiaries approached for this study.



2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 381
Author(s):  
Wenni Mey Kardepa Sembiring ◽  
Wuryaningsih Dwi Sayekti ◽  
Dame Trully Gultom

This study aims to analyze the existing performance of the Rose Florist agro-industry and formulate the business development strategy. This research uses a case study method with three respondents consisting of business owner, an employee of the business, and an UMKM officer. Data collection was carried out in April-May 2020. Data analysis uses cash flow and SWOT. The results showed that the Rose Florist Agroindustry has a good financial performance. There was an increase in cash of 9,538,729.17 from the cash flow statement, from the first period of IDR 153,249,128.57 to the second period of IDR 162,787,857.74. The development strategies that can be used in the development of the Rose Florist Agroindustry are to make quality flower arrangements, to add business signposts in business locations, and to train the workers on good management and better skills. Keywords: agro-industry, performance, Rose Florist, strategy



1987 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 143-147
Author(s):  
W. L. Mills ◽  
S. D. Shnitzler ◽  
R. S. Meldahl

Abstract A discounted cash flow model called the Impact Appraisal Model (IAM) computes the economic impact due to a change in timber production caused by a wildfire. Data requirements for the IAM can be obtained using standard inventory procedures to estimate the pre- and post-fire stand conditionsneeded to initiate a growth and yield simulator. The model is demonstrated using five loblolly plantations that burned in 1980 and 1981. South. J. Appl. For. 11(3):143-147.



Author(s):  
Bijan Vasigh ◽  
Farshid Azadian ◽  
Kamran Moghaddam

Aircraft valuation and the estimation of an accurate aircraft price is undoubtedly a challenging task that has significant consequences for airlines. This paper presents an asset valuation model to show how a series of endogenous as well as exogenous factors can influence the value of an aircraft. Specifically, a discounted cash flow methodology is used to forecast the valuation of an old or new generation aircraft. Both total operating revenue and aircraft operating costs are taken into account to devise a reliable pre-tax profit measurement that is used as the basis of the discounted cash flow analysis. A sensitivity analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to identify which factors have a more significant influence on the suggested aircraft value. Therefore, it addresses how value fluctuates in response to economic fluctuations. Indeed, the calculated value of an aircraft highly depends on the underlying assumptions used. The calculated value is compared with available data in a case study for verification.



2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1045-1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa KHANZADI ◽  
Ehsan ESHTEHARDIAN ◽  
Mahdiyar MOKHLESPOUR ESFAHANI

Cash-flow management is very important for contractors given that inadequate cash resources typically are the main causes for bankruptcy of construction companies. In comparison to most other industries, the construction industry is severely plagued by risk, and the success of construction projects usually depends on valuating all risks. However, conventional methods suggested by extant research on cash flow forecasting do not consider comprehensive identifica­tion of risk factors, interactions between the factors, and simultaneous occurrences of the factors. This study introduced a simple and appropriate probabilistic cash flow forecasting model using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to avoid bankruptcy of contractors by considering influence diagrams and risk factors that affect a project. Workability and reli­ability of the proposed approach was tested on an important building construction project in Iran as a real case study, and the results indicated that the model performed well.



1998 ◽  
Vol 25 (5&6) ◽  
pp. 613-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Garrod
Keyword(s):  


2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shadi Farshadfar

This study investigates whether the direct method of presenting cash flows from operations is superior to the indirect method in its ability to forecast future cash flows. It also considers the effect of industry characteristics on the relative usefulness of direct and indirect methods of cash flow presentation. The study, which uses a sample of Australian firms, finds that both the direct and indirect methods improve the forecast of future cash flows. However, the indirect method of reporting cash flows from operations is more relevant than the direct method in predicting future cash flows. Evidence from the industry-level analysis overall reinforces the main results.



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