Development of a scoring system for survival following surgery for metastatic bone disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 103-B (11) ◽  
pp. 1725-1730
Author(s):  
Rachel Baumber ◽  
Craig Gerrand ◽  
Michael Cooper ◽  
William Aston
Keyword(s):  
Survival Time ◽  
Bone Disease ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Surgical Intervention ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
White Cell Count ◽  
Physiological State ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Metastatic Bone Disease ◽  
Number Of Patients

Aims The incidence of bone metastases is between 20% to 75% depending on the type of cancer. As treatment improves, the number of patients who need surgical intervention is increasing. Identifying patients with a shorter life expectancy would allow surgical intervention with more durable reconstructions to be targeted to those most likely to benefit. While previous scoring systems have focused on surgical and oncological factors, there is a need to consider comorbidities and the physiological state of the patient, as these will also affect outcome. The primary aim of this study was to create a scoring system to estimate survival time in patients with bony metastases and to determine which factors may adversely affect this. Methods This was a retrospective study which included all patients who had presented for surgery with metastatic bone disease. The data collected included patient, surgical, and oncological variables. Univariable and multivariable analysis identified which factors were associated with a survival time of less than six months and less than one year. A model to predict survival based on these factors was developed using Cox regression. Results A total of 164 patients were included with a median survival time of 1.6 years (interquartile range 0.5 to 3.1) after surgery. On multivariable analysis, a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (p < 0.001), a high white cell count (p = 0.002), hyponatraemia (p = 0.001), a preoperative resting heart rate of > 100 bpm (p = 0.052), and the type of primary cancer (p = 0.026) remained significant predictors of reduced survival time. The predictive model developed showed good discrimination and calibration to predict both six- and 12-month survival in patients with metastatic bone disease. Conclusion In addition to surgical and oncological factors, the level of comorbidity and physiological state of the patient has a significant impact on survival in patients with metastatic bone disease. These factors should be considered when assessing the appropriateness of surgical intervention. This is the first study to examine other patient factors alongside surgical and oncological data to identify a relationship between these and survival. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(11):1725–1730.

scholarly journals Pretreatment Plasma IL-6 and YKL-40 and Overall Survival after Surgery for Metastatic Bone Disease of the Extremities

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2833
Author(s):  
Michala Skovlund Sørensen ◽  
Thomas Colding-Rasmussen ◽  
Peter Frederik Horstmann ◽  
Klaus Hindsø ◽  
Christian Dehlendorff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bone Disease ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Continuous Variable ◽  
Metastatic Bone Disease ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Tertiary Referral Center ◽  
A Prospective Study ◽  
Risk Factors For Survival

Background: Plasma IL-6 and YKL-40 are prognostic biomarkers for OS in patients with different types of solid tumors, but they have not been studied in patients before surgery of metastatic bone disease (MBD) of the extremities. The aim was to evaluate the prognostic value of plasma IL-6 and YKL-40 in patients undergoing surgery for MBD of the extremities. Patients and Methods: A prospective study included all patients undergoing surgery for MBD in the extremities at a tertiary referral center during the period 2014–2018. Preoperative blood samples from index surgery were included. IL-6 and YKL-40 concentrations in plasma were determined by commercial ELISA. A total of 232 patients (median age 66 years, IQR 58–74; female 51%) were included. Results: Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors for OS. IL-6 correlated with YKL-40 (rho = 0.46, p < 0.01). In univariate analysis (log2 continuous variable) IL-6 (HR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.16–1.37), CRP (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.12–1.29) and YKL-40 (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.15–1.37) were associated with short OS. In multivariable analysis, adjusted for known risk factors for survival, only log2(IL-6) was independently associated with OS (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.08–1.43), whereas CRP and YKL-40 were not. Conclusion: High preoperative plasma IL-6 is an independent biomarker of short OS in patients undergoing surgery for MBD.

scholarly journals Prediction of fracture risk and prophylactic intervention in metastatic bone disease: a systematic review

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-49
Author(s):  
Bogdan Ştefan Creţu ◽  
Călin Dragosloveanu ◽  
Dragoş Cotor ◽  
Şerban Dragosloveanu ◽  
Cristian Ioan Stoica
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Risk ◽  
Bone Disease ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Metastatic Bone Disease ◽  
Bone Lesions ◽  
Pathological Fractures ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Actual Knowledge ◽  
Number Of Patients

AbstractPathological fractures occur in an area of bone where either the quantity or quality of bone is modified and the main cause of bone metastases that weaken the structure and will lead to fractures are in high proportion given by visceral tumors or primary hematopoietic tumors like myeloma.This paper’s objective was to review the actual knowledge in the treatment of fractures secondary to metastases. Spinal lesions were not discussed in this paper.Literature search was performed using MEDLINE and Web of Science to find literature relevant to fracture risk and prophylactic intervention in metastatic bone disease. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guideline was used for this review. As results, we identified 30 papers that were suitable for this review. Most of them concluded that it is difficult to assess the amount of bone involvement on radiographs alone. Using the actual guidelines for prophylactic fixation may result in an under treatment or overtreatment of patients with metastatic bone disease. Their ability to determine which metastatic bone lesions will fracture is altered mainly because of the small number of patients included in the studies. The prediction factors for fracture risk are still to be evaluated. CT, FDG-PET or CT scan-based finite element analysis may be useful tools for the identification of impending pathological fractures requiring prophylactic stabilization.

Activities of daily living at hospital admission and estimated survival time of older patients

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesper Ryg ◽  
Henriette Engberg ◽  
Pavithra Laxsen Anru ◽  
Solvejg Gram Henneberg Pedersen ◽  
Martin Gronbech Jorgensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Activities Of Daily Living ◽  
Survival Time ◽  
Barthel Index ◽  
Daily Living ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Kaplan Meier

Abstract Background Predicting expected survival time in acutely hospitalised older patients is a clinical challenge. Objective To examine if activities of daily living (ADL) assessed by Barthel-Index-100 (Barthel-Index) at hospital admission adds useful information to clinicians on expected survival time in older patients. Methods A nationwide population-based cohort study was used. All patients aged ≥65 years in the National Danish Geriatric Database from 2005 to 2014 were followed up until death, emigration or study termination (31 December 2015). Individual data were linked to national health registers. Barthel-Index was categorised into five-point subcategories with a separate category of Barthel-Index = 0. Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to assess crude survival proportions (95% CI) and Cox regression to examine association of Barthel-Index and mortality adjusting for age, Charlson comorbidity index, medication use, BMI, marital status, prior hospitalisations and admission year. Results In total, 74,589 patients (63% women) aged (mean (SD)) 82.5(7.5) years with Barthel-Index (median (IQR)) 54(29-77) were included. In patients with Barthel-Index = 100-96 crude survival was 0.96(0.95-0.97) after 90-days, 0.88(0.87-0.89) after 1-year, and 0.79(0.78-0.80) after 2-years. Corresponding survival in patients with Barthel-Index = 0 was 0.49(0.47-0.51), 0.35(0.34-0.37) and 0.26(0.24-0.27). Decreasing Barthel-Index was associated with increasing mortality in the multivariable analysis. In women with Barthel-Index = 0, the mortality risk (HR (95% CI)) was 14.74(11.33-19.18) after 90-days, 8.40(7.13-9.90) after 1-year and 6.22(5.47-7.07) after 2-years using Barthel-Index = 100-96 as reference. In men, the corresponding risks were 11.36(8.81-14.66), 6.22(5.29-7.31) and 5.22(4.56-5.98). Conclusions ADL measured by Barthel-Index provides useful, easily accessible and independent information to clinicians on expected survival time in patients admitted to a geriatric department.

Predictors of outcome following local excision for T1 rectal adenocarcinoma: A contemporary analysis.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 35-35
Author(s):  
Thejus Thayyil Jayakrishnan ◽  
Stephen Abel ◽  
Ari Reichstein ◽  
Richard Fortunato ◽  
Stanislav Nosik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Excision ◽  
Perineural Invasion ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Rectal Adenocarcinoma ◽  
Predictors Of Outcome ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Grade 3

35 Background: Local excision (LE) alone is a standard treatment option for appropriately selected early stage rectal adenocarcinoma patients. Guidelines for this therapeutic approach are based upon retrospective single institution data, some of which dates back 30 years. We thus sought to use the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to examine outcomes in a large cohort of patients with early stage rectal adenocarcinoma treated with LE and to identify/confirm predictors of outcome. Methods: We queried the NCDB for patients with pT1N0M0 rectal adenocarcinoma treated with local excision alone. Baseline characteristics were tabulated and included lymphovascular invasion (LVI), perineural invasion (PNI), grade, and size all of which have been recorded in the NCDB since 2010. Multivariable Cox regression was used to identify predictors of overall survival. Kaplan Meier curves were generated to compare survival based upon significant factors found on multivariable analysis. Results: Using the above criteria, we identified 887 patients eligible for analysis across 2010-2014. The median age was 67 and 57% of patients were male. The median tumor size was 1.5 cm (IQ range: 0.9-2.5 cm). A minority of patients had grade 3 tumors (5%), LVI (8%), or PNI ( < 1%). Median follow up was 36 months (1-83). On multivariable Cox regression, predictors of worse survival included: size > 4 cm, age > 67, higher comorbidity score, and presence of LVI. On Kaplan Meier analysis, 5 year OS was 75% vs. 74% for patients without and with LVI, respectively (p = 0.0115). In terms of size, the 5 year OS was 74% vs. 51%for size < 4cm and size > 4cm (p = 0.0138). Conclusions: Our large contemporary series demonstrates excellent survival outcomes in patients with early stage rectal adenocarcinoma treated with LE alone. LVI remains a predictor of outcome, while grade and perineural invasion were not significant in this analysis. This finding is likely due to a small number of patients with those characteristics.

scholarly journals Can the Katagiri scoring system predict prognosis for surgically-managed patients with metastatic bone disease?

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 ◽  
pp. 0-0
Author(s):  
Elif Ugur ◽  
Hiten Doshi ◽  
Sean Wilson ◽  
Nicole L. Levine ◽  
Janet Tingling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bone Disease ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Metastatic Bone Disease

scholarly journals A univariable and multivariable analysis of time-to-event data based on restricted mean survival time: A combination with traditional survival methods.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiao Huang ◽  
Jun Lyv ◽  
Bing-hui Li ◽  
Lin-lu Ma ◽  
Tong Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Survival Time ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Event Data ◽  
Time To Event ◽  
Mean Survival Time ◽  
Time To Event Data ◽  
Effect Measure ◽  
Restricted Mean Survival Time

Abstract Background Hazard ratio is considered as an appropriate effect measure of time-to-event data. However, hazard ratio is only valid when proportional hazards (PH) assumption is met. The use of the restricted mean survival time (RMST) is proposed and recommended without limitation of PH assumption. Method 4405 osteosarcomas were captured from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program Database. Traditional survival analyses and RMST-based analyses were integrated into a flowchart and applied for univariable and multivariable analyses, using hazard ratio (HR) and difference in RMST (survival time lost or gain, STL or STG) as effect measures. The relationship between difference in RMST and HR were explored when PH assumption was and was not met, respectively. Results In univariable analyses, using difference in RMST calculated by Kaplan-Meier methods as reference, pseudo-value regressions (R2=0.99) and inverse probability of censoring probability (IPCW) regressions with group-specific weights (R2=1.00) provided more consistent estimation on difference in RMST than IPCW with individual weights (R2=0.09). In multivariable analysis, age (HR:1.03, STL: 3.86 months), diagnosis in 1970~1980s (HR:1.39 STL:27.49 months), metastasis (HR:4.47, STL: 202 months), surgery (HR:0.58, SLG:35.55 months) and radiation (HR:1.46, SLT:44.65 months), met PH assumption and were main independent factors for overall survival. In both univariable and multivariable variables, a robust negative logarithmic linear relationship between HRs estimated by Cox regression and differences in RMST by pseudo-value regressions was only observed when PH assumption was hold (Difference in RMST = -109.3✕ln (HR) - 0.83, R² = 0.97, and Difference = -127.7✕ln (HR) – 9.49, R² = 0.93, respectively.) Conclusion The flowchart will be intuitive and helpful to instruct appropriate use of RMST based and traditional methods. RMST-based methods provided an absolute effect measure to inspect effects of covariates on survival time and promote evidence communication with HR. Difference in RMST should be reported with hazard ratio routinely.

scholarly journals A univariable and multivariable analysis of right censored time-to-event data based on restricted mean survival time: A combination with traditional survival methods.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiao Huang ◽  
Jun Lyv ◽  
Bing-hui Li ◽  
Lin-lu Ma ◽  
Tong Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Survival Time ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Event Data ◽  
Time To Event ◽  
Mean Survival Time ◽  
Time To Event Data ◽  
Effect Measure ◽  
Restricted Mean Survival Time

Abstract Background Hazard ratio is considered as an appropriate effect measure of time-to-event data. However, hazard ratio is only valid when proportional hazards (PH) assumption is met. The use of the restricted mean survival time (RMST) is proposed and recommended without limitation of PH assumption. Method 4405 osteosarcomas were captured from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program Database. Traditional survival analyses and RMST-based analyses were integrated into a flowchart and applied for univariable and multivariable analyses, using hazard ratio (HR) and difference in RMST (survival time lost or gain, STL or STG) as effect measures. The relationship between difference in RMST and HR were explored when PH assumption was and was not met, respectively. Results In group comparison and univariable regressions, using difference in RMST calculated by Kaplan-Meier methods as reference, pseudo-value regressions (R2=0.99) and inverse probability of censoring probability (IPCW) regressions with group-specific weights (R2=1.00) provided more consistent estimation on difference in RMST than IPCW with individual weights (R2=0.09). In multivariable analysis, age (HR:1.03, STL: 3.86 months), diagnosis in 1970~1980s (HR:1.39 STL:27.49 months), metastasis (HR:4.47, STL: 202 months), surgery (HR:0.58, SLG:35.55 months) and radiation (HR:1.46, SLT:44.65 months) met PH assumption and were main independent factors for overall survival. In both univariable and multivariable variables, a robust negative logarithmic linear relationship between HRs estimated by Cox regression and differences in RMST by pseudo-value regressions was only observed when PH assumption was hold. Conclusion The flowchart will be intuitive and helpful to instruct appropriate use of RMST based and traditional methods. RMST-based methods provided an absolute effect measure to inspect effects of covariates on survival time and promote evidence communication with HR. Difference in RMST should be reported with hazard ratio routinely.

scholarly journals Can patient-specific finite element models better predict fractures in metastatic bone disease than experienced clinicians?

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 430-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Eggermont ◽  
L. C. Derikx ◽  
N. Verdonschot ◽  
I. C. M. van der Geest ◽  
M. A. A. de Jong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Fracture Risk ◽  
Bone Disease ◽  
Failure Load ◽  
Metastatic Bone Disease ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Finite Element Models ◽  
Fe Model ◽  
Clinical Assessments ◽  
Number Of Patients

Objectives In this prospective cohort study, we investigated whether patient-specific finite element (FE) models can identify patients at risk of a pathological femoral fracture resulting from metastatic bone disease, and compared these FE predictions with clinical assessments by experienced clinicians. Methods A total of 39 patients with non-fractured femoral metastatic lesions who were irradiated for pain were included from three radiotherapy institutes. During follow-up, nine pathological fractures occurred in seven patients. Quantitative CT-based FE models were generated for all patients. Femoral failure load was calculated and compared between the fractured and non-fractured femurs. Due to inter-scanner differences, patients were analyzed separately for the three institutes. In addition, the FE-based predictions were compared with fracture risk assessments by experienced clinicians. Results In institute 1, median failure load was significantly lower for patients who sustained a fracture than for patients with no fractures. In institutes 2 and 3, the number of patients with a fracture was too low to make a clear distinction. Fracture locations were well predicted by the FE model when compared with post-fracture radiographs. The FE model was more accurate in identifying patients with a high fracture risk compared with experienced clinicians, with a sensitivity of 89% versus 0% to 33% for clinical assessments. Specificity was 79% for the FE models versus 84% to 95% for clinical assessments. Conclusion FE models can be a valuable tool to improve clinical fracture risk predictions in metastatic bone disease. Future work in a larger patient population should confirm the higher predictive power of FE models compared with current clinical guidelines. Cite this article: F. Eggermont, L. C. Derikx, N. Verdonschot, I. C. M. van der Geest, M. A. A. de Jong, A. Snyers, Y. M. van der Linden, E. Tanck. Can patient-specific finite element models better predict fractures in metastatic bone disease than experienced clinicians? Towards computational modelling in daily clinical practice. Bone Joint Res 2018;7:430–439. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.76.BJR-2017-0325.R2.

Neurological event prediction for patients with symptomatic cerebral cavernous malformation: the BLED2 score

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Relative Magnitude ◽  
Neurological Deficits ◽  
Cavernous Malformations ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Neurological Event

OBJECTIVE Retrospective patient cohort studies have identified risk factors associated with recurrent focal neurological events in patients with symptomatic cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs). Using a prospectively maintained database of patients with CCMs, this study identified key risk factors for recurrent neurological events in patients with symptomatic CCM. A simple scoring system and risk stratification calculator was then created to predict future neurological events in patients with symptomatic CCMs. METHODS This was a dual-center, prospectively acquired, retrospectively analyzed cohort study. Adult patients who presented with symptomatic CCMs causing focal neurological deficits or seizures were uniformly treated and clinically followed from the time of diagnosis onward. Baseline variables included age, sex, history of intracerebral hemorrhage, lesion multiplicity, location, eloquence, size, number of past neurological events, and duration since last event. Stepwise multivariable Cox regression was used to derive independent predictors of recurrent neurological events, and predictive accuracy was assessed. A scoring system based on the relative magnitude of each risk factor was devised, and Kaplan-Meier curve analysis was used to compare event-free survival among patients with different score values. Subsequently, 1-, 2-, and 5-year neurological event rates were calculated for every score value on the basis of the final model. RESULTS In total, 126 (47%) of 270 patients met the inclusion criteria. During the mean (interquartile range) follow-up of 54.4 (12–66) months, 55 patients (44%) experienced recurrent neurological events. Multivariable analysis yielded 4 risk factors: bleeding at presentation (HR 1.92, p = 0.048), large size ≥ 12 mm (HR 2.06, p = 0.016), eloquent location (HR 3.01, p = 0.013), and duration ≤ 1 year since last event (HR 9.28, p = 0.002). The model achieved an optimism-corrected c-statistic of 0.7209. All factors were assigned 1 point, except duration from last event which was assigned 2 points. The acronym BLED2 summarizes the scoring system. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year risks of a recurrent neurological event ranged from 0.6%, 1.2%, and 2.3%, respectively, for patients with a BLED2 score of 0, to 48%, 74%, and 93%, respectively, for patients with a BLED2 score of 5. CONCLUSIONS The BLED2 risk score predicts prospective neurological events in symptomatic CCM patients.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document