A Globally Applicable "Triple AAA" Risk Model for Essential Thrombocythemia Based on Age, Absolute Neutrophil Count, and Absolute Lymphocyte Count

Background The detrimental effect of leukocytosis on survival in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) has been well established for primary myelofibrosis (PMF), polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET ) (JCO. 2018;36:310; BJH. 2020;189:291) Previous studies have also implicated leukocytosis as a risk factor for leukemic transformation (Mayo Clin Proc. 2017;92:1118) and thrombosis in MPN (Blood Adv. 2019;3:1729). However, it is currently not clear as to which component(s) of white blood cells is responsible for these observations. In the current study, we sought to examine the individual prognostic contribution of absolute neutrophil (ANC), lymphocyte (ALC) and monocyte (AMC) counts, on overall (OS), leukemia-free (LFS), and myelofibrosis-free (MFFS) survival and in ET. Methods Study patients (n=349) were retrospectively recruited from the Mayo Clinic MPN database of 1,249 WHO-defined ET patients, evaluated over five decades (1967-2021), based on availability of information on ANC, ALC and AMC. Conventional criteria were used for diagnosis and definitions of major complications, including leukemic or fibrotic transformation (Blood 2016;127:2391). Conventional statistical methods were applied using JMP Pro 14.0.0 software package, SAS Institute, Cary, NC. Multivariable analyses included previously established risk factors for survival. Results 349 patients (median age 57 years, range 18-89; females 61%) with ET were included in the study: 46% JAK2, 34% CALR, 16% triple-negative and 4% MPL mutated; IPSET risk category high 24%, intermediate 41%, and low 35%; presenting median (range) values were 13.8 g/dL (11.1-16.4) for hemoglobin, 8.2 x 10(9)/L (3.2-52) for leukocyte count, and 859 x 10(9)/L (451-3460) for platelet count; palpable splenomegaly was present in 48 (14%); median followup was 10 years (range 0-47), during which time 118 deaths, 52 fibrotic progressions, and 14 leukemic transformations were documented. Multivariable analysis identified older age (p<0.001), increased ANC (p<0.001), decreased ALC (p=0.03), and male sex (p=0.04), but not AMC (p=0.8), venous thrombosis (p=0.4), or arterial thrombosis (p=0.4), as independent risk factors for OS. ANC of ≥8 x 10(9)/L and ALC of <1.8 x 10(9)/L were determined as appropriate cut-off values by ROC analysis. Subsequent multivariable analysis using these cut-off values resulted in HR (95% CI) of 5.2 (3.4-7.9; p<0.001) for age >60 years, 3.1 (2.1-4.6; p<0.001) for ANC, and 2.0 (1.4-3.0; p<0.001) for ALC; male sex was no longer significant in this analysis (p=0.14). An operational HR-based risk score assigned 3 adverse risk points for older age (>60 years), 2 for increased ANC (≥8 x 10(9)/L) and 1 for ALC (<1.8 x 10(9)/L), resulting in an new Age Anc Alc (AAA; triple A) risk model for survival in ET with estimates of median survival ranging from 9.7 to 36.6 years (Figure 1). In addition, ALC <1.8 x 10(9)/L was associated with inferior LFS (p=0.06) and MFFS (p=0.07) while AMC as a continuous variable showed borderline significance for MFFS (p=0.18). In univariate analysis, JAK2V617F allele burden showed significant association with OS (p=0.02), LFS (p=0.05) and MFFS (p=0.001); however significance for OS was lost in mutivariable analysis that included ANC and ALC. An external validation cohort from the University of Florence (n=485) confirmed the independent survival risk contribution from age >60 years (p<0.001; HR 9.9, 95% CI 5.4-18.0), ANC ≥8 x 10(9)/L (p=0.02; 1.9, 1.1-3.5) and ALC <1.8 x 10(9)/L (p<0.001; 2.0, 1.3-3.0). The Triple A risk model was also effectively applied on the Florence validation cohort (Figure 1): median follow-up 8.4 years; 87 deaths; 43 fibrotic progression; 12 leukemic transformations. The association of ALC <1.8 x 10(9)/L (p=0.04) and AMC (p=0.002) with fibrotic transformation was also validated in the Florence cohort. Conclusions: The current study identifies increased ANC and decreased ALC as age-independent risk factors for survival in ET, thus allowing the development of a globally applicable simple to use "Triple A" risk model that is based on Age, ANC and ALC. Decreased ALC also predicted fibrotic and leukemic progression. Our observations suggest potential value for immune profiling as an additional prognostic tool in MPN. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Szuber: Novartis: Honoraria. Vannucchi: BMS: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Novartis: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Incyte: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; AbbVie: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.

Evaluation of Prognostic Value in Thyroid Cancer and Bone Metastasis with I-131 Therapy

Objectives: This study is aimed to evaluate the risk factors for survival and prognostic value in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) and bone metastasis (BM) with I-131 therapy.Methods: 67 consecutive patients with DTC and BM were included between 2006 and 2019. All patients received total or near-total thyroidectomy, radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment, I-131 whole-body scan (WBS) and Fluorine-18-fluorodesoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (F-18-FDG PET/CT). Variables including patient’s gender, age, pathology, laboratory examination, characteristics of BM, treatment models, and metabolic parameters of F-18-FDG PET/CT were analyzed for disease progression and survival prognosis. Results: A total of 207 BM lesions were found in 67 patients and 28 (41.79%) patients experienced disease progression. Age stratification, thyroglobulin/thyroid-stimulating hormone (Tg/TSH) level, Tg level, PET (+) ratio and RAI (+) ratio showed significant differences between patients with progression and those without progression (p<0.05). The overall survival (OS) rate was 100% at one year, 86.56% at three years, and 43.20% at five years. Base on survival analysis, Tg/TSH level, PET (+) ratio and RAI(+) ratio were independent risk factors for PFS and OS. Of parameters of PET/CT, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were the significant prognostic factors for PFS and OS in DTC and BM patients.Conclusions: Tg/TSH level, PET (+) ratio and RAI(+) ratio are the independent risk factors for survival in patients with DTC and BM. MTV and TLG are the significant prognosis factors for PFS and OS on PET/CT imaging.

Pretreatment Plasma IL-6 and YKL-40 and Overall Survival after Surgery for Metastatic Bone Disease of the Extremities

Background: Plasma IL-6 and YKL-40 are prognostic biomarkers for OS in patients with different types of solid tumors, but they have not been studied in patients before surgery of metastatic bone disease (MBD) of the extremities. The aim was to evaluate the prognostic value of plasma IL-6 and YKL-40 in patients undergoing surgery for MBD of the extremities. Patients and Methods: A prospective study included all patients undergoing surgery for MBD in the extremities at a tertiary referral center during the period 2014–2018. Preoperative blood samples from index surgery were included. IL-6 and YKL-40 concentrations in plasma were determined by commercial ELISA. A total of 232 patients (median age 66 years, IQR 58–74; female 51%) were included. Results: Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors for OS. IL-6 correlated with YKL-40 (rho = 0.46, p < 0.01). In univariate analysis (log2 continuous variable) IL-6 (HR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.16–1.37), CRP (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.12–1.29) and YKL-40 (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.15–1.37) were associated with short OS. In multivariable analysis, adjusted for known risk factors for survival, only log2(IL-6) was independently associated with OS (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.08–1.43), whereas CRP and YKL-40 were not. Conclusion: High preoperative plasma IL-6 is an independent biomarker of short OS in patients undergoing surgery for MBD.

Preoperative leukocytosis and the resection severity index are independent risk factors for survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Purpose The incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma is increasing worldwide. Despite advances in surgical and non-surgical treatment, reported outcomes are still poor and surgical resection remains to be the only chance for long-term survival of affected patients. The identification and validation of prognostic factors and scores, such as the recently introduced resection severity index, for postoperative morbidity and mortality are essential to facilitate optimal therapeutic regimens. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of 269 patients undergoing resection of histologically confirmed intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma between February 1996 and September 2018 at a tertiary referral center for hepatobiliary surgery. Regression analyses were performed to evaluate potential prognostic factors, including the resection severity index. Results Median postoperative follow-up time was 22.93 (0.10–234.39) months. Severe postoperative complications (≥ Clavien-Dindo grade III) were observed in 94 (34.9%) patients. The body mass index (p = 0.035), the resection severity index (ASAT in U/l divided by Quick in % multiplied by the extent of liver resection graded in points; p = 0.006), additional hilar bile duct resection (p = 0.005), and number of packed red blood cells transfused during operation (p = 0.036) were independent risk factors for the onset of severe postoperative complications. Median Kaplan-Meier survival after resection was 27.63 months. Preoperative leukocytosis (p = 0.003), the resection severity index (p = 0.005), multivisceral resection (p = 0.001), and T stage ≥ 3 (p = 0.013) were identified as independent risk factors for survival. Conclusion Preoperative leukocytosis and the resection severity index are useful variables for preoperative risk stratification since they were identified as significant predictors for postoperative morbidity and mortality, respectively.