scholarly journals The Extension of a Method of Risk Analysis from Aeronautics to Medicine. Application to Endoscopic Surgery

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-18
Author(s):  
Corneliu BERBENTE Corneliu BERBENTE ◽  
Dumitru TURBATU
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Endoscopic Surgery ◽  
Normal Case ◽  
Medicine Application

The 6-4-3-5 method of risk analysis from Aeronautics is adapted and extended to Medicine with emphasis on Endoscopic Surgery. The new main risk factors are identified and the corresponding risk severity is evaluated. In the complete method “6”represents the number of persons in the evaluating team,“4” gives the used weights 1; 2; 3; 4; “3” is the number of variants required to each person from the evaluating team and “5” indicates the time for evaluation (five minutes). The risk is defined as a product between the probability of an event and the event severity, S, taking one of the values 1; 2; 3; 4. The value S = 1 represents the normal case and S = 4 corresponds to the maximum damage, for example, dead people resulting in one aviation accident. Three more simple variants are also given.

Digital risk analysis of cardiovascular diseases: new opportunities for the patients

2008 ◽  
Vol 149 (15) ◽  
pp. 677-684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba Arnold ◽  
Zoltán Englert ◽  
Csaba Szabadhegyi ◽  
Csaba Farsang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Effective Treatment ◽  
Medical History ◽  
Vascular Diseases ◽  
Coronary Risk ◽  
Risk Status ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Graphic Presentation

Authors constructed a software helping the prevention programme of coronary and vascular diseases as the classical risk factors are used for graphic presentation of coronary risk as compared to “normal” risk. By repeated estimation alterations in coronary risk status can be compared to previous ones and thereby help evaluating the changes. This programme is highlighted by the presentation of changes in coronary risk of a patient during a 4-year-long period of her medical history. It is also shown how graphic presentation of risk can support the more effective treatment and patient care.

Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process to Risk Analysis of Port Construction Project

2012 ◽  
Vol 170-173 ◽  
pp. 2292-2297
Author(s):  
Jiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Analytical Hierarchy Process ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Port Construction

The application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to the risk analysis of port construction project was investigated. Firstly, the happening probabilities of various risk factors during port construction were calculated. Secondly, the aftereffects of the risks were concluded by consulting the experts. Thirdly, the weight of each risk factor was obtained by AHP. Finally, the total risk of port construction project could be evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. This risk analysis method was applied to evaluate the total risk of a real port construction project, and the exemplification verified its feasibility.

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

The Risk Analysis of New Energy Power Generation

2014 ◽  
Vol 962-965 ◽  
pp. 1787-1791
Author(s):  
Qiu Yue Li ◽  
Jie Ping Han
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Energy Source ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Index System ◽  
Environment Management ◽  
Low Level ◽  
New Energy ◽  
The Index System ◽  
Risk Degree

The new energy power generation in China has rapidly developed, and many generation companies have invested in new energy source. Some projects cannot achieve the desired results as the characters as dispersion, instability, and low level of technique. This article has established the index system of the risk degree for new energy power generation, which included the the risk degree of politics, economy, technology, environment, management. And making the analysis of the risk factors, it can provide the significant meaning of the investment for the new energy power generation companies.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Cargos Damages for Aquatic Products of Refrigerated Containers: Shipping Operators’ Perspective in Taiwan

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Jui Tseng ◽  
Chien-Chang Chou . ◽  
Fu-Ting Hsu . ◽  
Yu-Meng Wang . ◽  
Ya-Ning Liu, Nai-Wen Chang, Yi-Wen Wu .
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Container Shipping ◽  
Container Transportation ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Aquatic Products

As the development of refrigerated container, transportation of aquatic products is growing rapidly in recent years. It is very important to avoid cargos damages for aquatic products of refrigerated containers, while the shipping operators are running this scope of business. Hence, the risk issue of adopting various improvement strategies would be important for the container shipping operators. In the light of this, the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the risks of cargos damages for aquatic products of refrigerated containers based on the container shipping operators’ perspective in Taiwan. We use four risk assessment procedures - risk identification, risk analysis and evaluation, risk strategies, and risk treatment - as the research method in this paper. The risk factors are generated from literature review and experts interviewing. Then, three dimensions with nineteen risk factors are preliminary identified. We used these risk factors to proceed with the empirical study via questionnaires. Three points of empirical results are presented. At first, the top factor of perceived risk as well as of risk severity is ‘container data setting errors.’ Secondly, the top factor of risk frequency is ‘lack of the goods’ pre-cooling themselves.’ Thirdly, three risk factors are classified into the low-risk area, whereas sixteen risk factors are placed on the medium-risk area. There is no risk factor fix on the high-risk area. Furthermore, three risk strategies - risk prevention, risk reduction, and risk transfer - are suggested to adopt by different risk factors.

Risk analysis of construction of administration projects using Bayesian networks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Osama ◽  
Aly Sherif ◽  
Mohamed Badawy
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Life

Purpose This paper aims to enlighten the importance of the risk management process which is considered as a major procedure to effectively handle the potential inherent risks in the construction industry. However, most traditional risk analysis techniques are based on theories that deal with each risk factor as an independent, which does not take into consideration the causal relationships between risk factors. Design/methodology/approach This study aspires to identify the overall risk of the administrative construction projects in Egypt and to recognize the most influencing risk factors through the project life cycle by using Bayesian belief networks (BBN). Through a review of the literature, 27 risk factors were identified and categorized as the most common risk factors in the construction industry. A structured questionnaire was performed to estimate the probability and severity of these risks. Through site visits and interviews with experts in the construction field, 200 valid questionnaires were collected. A risk analysis model was developed using BBNs, then the applicability of this model was verified using a case study in Egypt. Findings However, the outcome showed that critical risks that manipulate administrative construction projects in Egypt were corruption and bribery, contractor financial difficulties, force majeure, damage to the structure and defective material installation. Practical implications The proposed study presents the possibilities available to the project parties to obtain a better forecast of the project objectives, including the project duration, total project cost and the target quality by examining the causal relationships between project risks and project objectives. Originality/value This study aspires to identify the overall risk of the administrative construction projects in Egypt and to recognize the most influencing risk factors through the project life cycle by using BBNs.

Risk Analysis in Renewable Energy System (RES) Investment for a Developing Country: A Case Study in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 204-223
Author(s):  
Izzet Alp Gul ◽  
Gülgün Kayakutlu ◽  
M. Özgür Kayalica
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Infrastructure Investments

Technological improvements allow changing a significant part of the electricity generation investments to renewable energies. Especially in emerging markets and energy import-dependent countries, shift to renewable energy generation became more important to break the links of dependency. Pakistan relies on imported fossil fuels; however, the country’s experience and ambition about the renewable energy transition gain prominence in recent years. Considering the long-term life cycle of energy infrastructure investments, possible risk factors and their dynamic nature must be analysed before the financial decisions are taken. This article aims to propose a system dynamics model for the risk analysis of investment life cycle. In this study, possible risk factors are detected and discussed in different categories. The casual loop diagram of possible risk factors and risk assessment model are designed, and the impacts are analysed. Case study of the proposed model in Pakistan highlighted the importance of commercial risks. The results achieved through this study will guide investors, sector participants and policymakers to develop stable strategies for promoting renewable energy in the country. JEL: Q42, P48, O13

scholarly journals A New Approach to Risk Attribution and Its Application in Credit Risk Analysis

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Christoph Frei
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Risk Decomposition ◽  
Risk Attribution ◽  
Credit Risk Analysis ◽  
A Company ◽  
Over Time

How can risk of a company be allocated to its divisions and attributed to risk factors? The Euler principle allows for an economically justified allocation of risk to different divisions. We introduce a method that generalizes the Euler principle to attribute risk to its driving factors when these factors affect losses in a nonlinear way. The method splits loss contributions over time and is straightforward to implement. We show in an example how this risk decomposition can be applied in the context of credit risk.

scholarly journals Risk Factors for Perioperative Complications in Endoscopic Surgery with Irrigation

2013 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 327-333
Author(s):  
João Manoel Silva ◽  
Maria Alice Barros ◽  
Milena Aur L. Chahda ◽  
Igor Martins Santos ◽  
Lauro Yoiti Marubayashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Endoscopic Surgery ◽  
Perioperative Complications
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