Is ‘Transition’ Possible?

2020 ◽  
pp. 135-160
Author(s):  
Philippe Bihouix

This chapter addresses the question of whether effecting a transition from a society in peril to a world of low-technology is prudent in its use of resources. It discusses the questioning approach that has made a number of analyses of societal 'crises' in order to shed light on different aspects of a complex grasp to reality. It also recounts the implementation of a monetary policy when the rates of profit declining in the late 1960s deliberately generated unemployment in order to maintain downward pressure on wages and encourage increased household debt to maintain sufficient demand and production. The chapter discusses the decline in purchasing power owed to debt or unemployment, which inevitably slows demand. It describes the efforts of engineers and advertisers to encourage the technical or cultural obsolescence of products.

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Kallmes

Abstract In the third century AD, under the pressure of plagues, external invasion, rising army costs, and usurpation, the Roman emperors incrementally debased the silver coinage that was produced at their imperial mints and incrementally took over civic mints. The debasement, from 2.7 g of silver to 0.04 g of silver in the equivalent of a denarius from 160–274 ad, was accompanied by worries from emperors, mint-workers, and bankers about the value of the currency; however, the total loss of purchasing power of the Roman coinage from the same era was 50–70 %, far less than would be expected from the change in metallic content, if it were the primary source of value. The currency reform of Aurelian in 274 ad, despite raising metallic values of coins, was followed by at least a 90 % reduction in the purchasing power of the silver coinage from 274–301 ad, the year of Diocletian’s Edict on Maximum Prices, showing a paradoxically inverse relationship between metallic value and purchasing power. Based on this quandary, I argue that the Roman silver coinage of the third century CE became a fiat currency in some respects, deriving its guarantee from imperial iconography and assurances rather than from bullion value. The fiat nature of the silver coinage was largely present in usage as a medium of exchange for those without as much long-term interest in maintaining liquid stores of value; this is indicated by the differential debasement of the denarius and aureus; imperial actions and hoarding practices indicate the extent to which the currency was accepted at nominal value. I examine the reactions of different social groups in order to determine the perceived value of the Roman coinage during this time, and in order to understand the paradoxical collapse in the currency’s value in the late third century. To demonstrate this, I will present the applicable elements of the modern concept of “fiat” to this context through portrayal of emperors and usurpers on coins, use coin hoard data to determine the effect of Gresham’s Law, and examine historical and papyrological accounts of currency reforms. I will also use evidence of the expansion of taxes in kind and the rejection of nominal value by both emperor and subjects to argue that the inflation following Aurelian’s reform resulted from an invalidation of the trust in imperial fiat.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  

Restoring macroeconomic stability, providing a foundation for sustainable inclusive growth, and addressing weaknesses in governance remain the main objectives of this program. While allowing for a slight fiscal loosening to meet humanitarian needs during the COVID-19 pandemic, tight monetary policy, much improved public financial management, domestic revenue mobilization, and zero central bank financing have supported the administration’s efforts to achieve price and exchange rate stability. This has helped to preserve the purchasing power of the poor who were the most affected by the high inflation environment at the program’s inception. The authorities consider bringing the ECF-supported program back on track of utmost importance and are committed to their development plan, the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD).


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 416
Author(s):  
Zehua Luan ◽  
Xiangyu Man ◽  
Xuan Zhou

Interaction of fiscal and monetary policy is crucial for macroeconomic stability, especially for an economy with downward pressure as well as a tightened space for macro policy, like China. In this paper, we use a time-varying-parameter (TVP-VAR) model to study Chinese fiscal–monetary interaction and divide it into three periods. We claim that China went through a monetary dominant regime from 1996Q to 2017Q4 since the response of CPI to a fiscal expansion was negative in the short run and about zero in the long run, while the monetary expansion had positive effects on CPI. During this period, the response of government spending and money supply to each other’s shock had the same sign, indicating that the two policies acted as complements. However, we argue that 2008Q4 was a turning point that divided this period into two different periods. The response level of M2 growth rate to a fiscal expansion kept rising from 1996Q1 to 2008Q4, indicating the central bank’s increasingly active cooperation with fiscal policy, while it decreased from 2009Q1 to 2017Q4. Since 2018Q1, the economy has been going through a fiscal dominant regime in that the response of GDP growth rate and CPI to the fiscal expansion has sharply increased. We also argue that the relative change of the role between the two policies should be mainly attributed to the variation in the fiscal authority’s characteristics because fiscal response to a monetary shock has remained at a similar level the whole time, even if there have been changes in the characteristics of the central bank.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Nicholas Bitar

Will the US sustain its economy after the tariff war with China, or will the economy regress? This paper offers a conceptual framework, based on the tenets of New-Keynesian theory, to answer this question. I anticipate that the tariff will have a positive effect on the GDP of the US economy in the short run while prices will rise. When adding the most recent reforms of interest cut by the Fed to 1.75% in September (2019) the model concludes a better outcome. Followed by an expansionary monetary policy by reducing the interest rate, the aftermath of the tariff war on China seems to have a positive impact on the US income and productivity. Obviously, some critics to the Trump Administration indeed shed light on the curtailed global and US social welfare that is caused by the inflationary effect of the tariff war, in addition to the deteriorating conditions for some trading sectors in the US which would certainly lead to unemployment. But the benefits to the US economy that are translated by the New-Keynesian theoretical framework show a positive impact on US production, employment, and GDP.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (198) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Baksa ◽  
Zsuzsa Munkacsi

The evidence on the inflation impact of aging is mixed, and there is no evidence regarding the volatility of inflation. Based on advanced economies’ data and a DSGE-OLG model, we find that aging leads to downward pressure on inflation and higher inflation volatility. Our paper is also the first, using this framework, to discuss how aging affects the transmission channels of monetary policy. We are also the first to examine aging and optimal central bank policies. As aging redistributes wealth among generations and the labor force becomes more scarce, our model suggests that aging makes monetary policy less effective and in more gray societies central banks should react more strongly to nominal variables.


Subject Policy implications of the downward pressure on inflation from the renewed oil price decline. Significance The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is under the most pressure to loosen monetary policy further, as the country's core inflation turned negative in January 2016, whereas in Hungary and the Czech Republic, core inflation remains in positive territory. Although the Hungarian Central Bank (MNB) has introduced a range of unconventional measures aimed at giving it greater control of short-term market rates without changing its benchmark rate, it has reached the limits of ultra-loose monetary policy, with fiscal loosening supplanting monetary easing as the main source of stimulus. Impacts Brexit's financial fallout is likely to stay contained, with equity markets rallying and gauges of financial volatility at historical lows. Germany's economy is likely to remain resilient post-Brexit, its composite purchasing managers' index rising to a seven-month high. This bodes well for Central Europe's economies, despite a recent slowdown in growth. Investors are losing confidence in the credibility and effectiveness of global monetary policy. However, very loose financial conditions in the global economy, particularly in Europe and Japan, will keep market sentiment favourable.


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