scholarly journals Mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks in workplaces and schools by hybrid telecommuting

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. e1009264
Author(s):  
Simon Mauras ◽  
Vincent Cohen-Addad ◽  
Guillaume Duboc ◽  
Max Dupré la Tour ◽  
Paolo Frasca ◽  
...  

The COVID-19 epidemic has forced most countries to impose contact-limiting restrictions at workplaces, universities, schools, and more broadly in our societies. Yet, the effectiveness of these unprecedented interventions in containing the virus spread remain largely unquantified. Here, we develop a simulation study to analyze COVID-19 outbreaks on three real-life contact networks stemming from a workplace, a primary school and a high school in France. Our study provides a fine-grained analysis of the impact of contact-limiting strategies at workplaces, schools and high schools, including: (1) Rotating strategies, in which workers are evenly split into two shifts that alternate on a daily or weekly basis; and (2) On-Off strategies, where the whole group alternates periods of normal work interactions with complete telecommuting. We model epidemics spread in these different setups using a stochastic discrete-time agent-based transmission model that includes the coronavirus most salient features: super-spreaders, infectious asymptomatic individuals, and pre-symptomatic infectious periods. Our study yields clear results: the ranking of the strategies, based on their ability to mitigate epidemic propagation in the network from a first index case, is the same for all network topologies (workplace, primary school and high school). Namely, from best to worst: Rotating week-by-week, Rotating day-by-day, On-Off week-by-week, and On-Off day-by-day. Moreover, our results show that below a certain threshold for the original local reproduction number R 0 l o c a l within the network (< 1.52 for primary schools, < 1.30 for the workplace, < 1.38 for the high school, and < 1.55 for the random graph), all four strategies efficiently control outbreak by decreasing effective local reproduction number to R 0 l o c a l < 1. These results can provide guidance for public health decisions related to telecommuting.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Mauras ◽  
Vincent Cohen-Addad ◽  
Guillaume Duboc ◽  
Max Dupre la Tour ◽  
Paolo Frasca ◽  
...  

The COVID-19 outbreak has forced most countries to impose new contact-limiting restrictions at workplaces, universities, schools, and more roadly in our societies. Yet, the power and imitations of these unprecedented strategies or containing virus spread within the populations remain unquantified. Here, we develop a simulation study to analyze COVID-19 outbreak magnitudes on three real-life contact networks stemming from a workplace, a primary school and a high school in France. Our study provides the first fine-grained analysis of the impact of contact-limiting strategies at work-places, schools and high schools, including (1) Rotating, in which workers are evenly split into two shifts that alternate on a daily or weekly basis; and (2) On-Off, where the whole group alternates periods of normal work interactions with complete telecommuting. We model epidemics spread in these different setups using an SEIR transmission model enriched with the coronavirus most salient specificities: super-spreaders, infec-tious asymptomatic individuals, and pre-symptomatic infectious periods. Our study yields clear results: The ranking of the strategies based on their ability to mitigate epidemic propagation in the network from a first index case is the same for all network topologies (work place, primary school and high school). Namely, from best to worst: Rotating week-by-week, Rotating day-by-day, On-Off week-by-week, and On-Off day-by-day. Moreover, our results show that when the baseline reproduction number R0 within the network is < 1:38, all four strategies efficiently control outbreak by decreasing effective Re to <1. These results can support public health decisions and telecommuting organization locally.


2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20200261
Author(s):  
Matt J. Keeling ◽  
Michael J. Tildesley ◽  
Benjamin D. Atkins ◽  
Bridget Penman ◽  
Emma Southall ◽  
...  

By mid-May 2020, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1 June 2020. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is unclear. Here, we present work from mid-May 2020 that focused on the imminent opening of schools and consider what these results imply for future policy. We compared eight strategies for reopening primary and secondary schools in England. Modifying a transmission model fitted to UK SARS-CoV-2 data, we assessed how reopening schools affects contact patterns, anticipated secondary infections and the relative change in the reproduction number, R . We determined the associated public health impact and its sensitivity to changes in social distancing within the wider community. We predicted that reopening schools with half-sized classes or focused on younger children was unlikely to push R above one. Older children generally have more social contacts, so reopening secondary schools results in more cases than reopening primary schools, while reopening both could have pushed R above one in some regions. Reductions in community social distancing were found to outweigh and exacerbate any impacts of reopening. In particular, opening schools when the reproduction number R is already above one generates the largest increase in cases. Our work indicates that while any school reopening will result in increased mixing and infection amongst children and the wider population, reopening schools alone in June 2020 was unlikely to push R above one. Ultimately, reopening decisions are a difficult trade-off between epidemiological consequences and the emotional, educational and developmental needs of children. Into the future, there are difficult questions about what controls can be instigated such that schools can remain open if cases increase. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.


Author(s):  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Jonathan M Read ◽  
Angela R McLean ◽  
Matt J Keeling ◽  
Leon Danon

Background Social distancing measures, including school closures, are being used to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission in many countries. Once "lockdown" has driven incidence to low levels, selected activities are being permitted. Re-opening schools is a priority because of the welfare and educational impact of closures on children. However, the impact of school re-opening needs to be considered within the context of other measures. Methods We use social contact data from the UK to predict the impact of social distancing policies on the reproduction number. We calibrate our tool to the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using publicly available death data and Google Community Mobility Reports. We focus on the impact of re-opening schools against a back-drop of wider social distancing easing. Results We demonstrate that pre-collected social contact data, combined with incidence data and Google Community Mobility Reports, is able to provide a time-varying estimate of the reproduction number (R). From an pre-control setting when R=2.7 (95%CI 2.5, 2.9), we estimate that the minimum reproduction number that can be achieved in the UK without limiting household contacts is 0.45 (95%CI:0.41-0.50); in the absence of other changes, preventing leisure contacts has a smaller impact (R=2.0,95%CI:1.8-2.4) than preventing work contacts (R=1.5,95%CI:1.4-1.7). We find that following lockdown (when R=0.7 (95% CI 0.6, 0.8)), opening primary schools in isolation has a modest impact on transmission R=0.83 (95%CI:0.77-0.90) but that high adherence to other measures is needed. Opening secondary schools as well as primary school is predicted to have a larger overall impact (R=0.95,95%CI:0.85-1.07), however transmission could still be controlled with effective contact tracing. Conclusions Our findings suggest that primary school children can return to school without compromising transmission, however other measures, such as social distancing and contract tracing, are required to control transmission if all age groups are to return to school. Our tool provides a mapping from policies to the reproduction number and can be used by policymakers to compare the impact of social-easing measures, dissect mitigation strategies and support careful localized control strategies.


2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 17-34
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Hamer ◽  
Katarzyna RAYWER ◽  
Elżbieta Monika Zięba

Based on Paul Ekman’s typology of motives of lying, authors wanted to investigate how oftenthey motivate pupils and students to lie. Two studies were conducted: 1) in primary schools anda high school, 2) on different universities. In the second study we also measured the level of needfor approval and agency/communion (the Big Two). Both studies gave similar results, revealing thatpupils and students declared higher frequency of lying motivated by avoiding any inconveniencethan by gaining some kind of profit. Detailed analyses showed that the highest frequency oflying was motivated by two reasons: to protect oneself or someone else from danger and to avoiduncomfortable, awkward situations. Next in frequencies were motives driven by willingness toavoid any nuisance (e.g. punishment, embarrassment or to protect one’s privacy). In both studieslying driven by willingness to gain some kind of profit (e.g. reward, being liked, admired or togain power) was declared as rather rare. Analyses showed that the latter result was not free frominfluence of need for approval. Both age and sex played a certain role in these declarations. In thefirst study, boys significantly more often than girls declared to lie to protect oneself or someoneelse from danger, to secure one’s privacy and to gain power. There were no such differences in thesecond study (among students). As to age, primary school pupils declared lying to be liked (girls)and admired (boys) more often than teenagers in high school, while the latter declared lying togain power and to protect oneself or someone else from danger more often than primary schoolpupils. In turn, students declared, significantly more often than younger subjects, to lie for allreasons. The Big Two turned out to be of little significance – only lower level of communion was, asexpected, connected to higher frequency of both categories of lies (to gain / to avoid), especially incertain reasons of lying (e.g. to gain power or admiration). The results are discussed in the contextof further studies on bigger and more varied groups, Polish cultural specificity and possible biasinginfluence of need for approval in studies of lying.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan H. van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin C. J. Bootsma ◽  
Janneke H. H. M. van de Wijgert ◽  
...  

AbstractThe role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatima Khadadah ◽  
Abdullah A. Al-Shammari ◽  
Ahmad Alhashemi ◽  
Dari Alhuwail ◽  
Bader Al-Saif ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The extent to which these interventions are successful in stopping the spread have not been characterized in countries with distinct socioeconomic groups. We compared the effects of a partial lockdown on disease transmission among Kuwaitis (P1) and non-Kuwaitis (P2) living in Kuwait. Methods We fit a modified metapopulation SEIR transmission model to reported cases stratified by two groups to estimate the impact of a partial lockdown on the effective reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e ). We estimated the basic reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_0 $$ R 0 ) for the transmission in each group and simulated the potential trajectories of an outbreak from the first recorded case of community transmission until 12 days after the partial lockdown. We estimated $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e values of both groups before and after the partial curfew, simulated the effect of these values on the epidemic curves and explored a range of cross-transmission scenarios. Results We estimate $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e at 1·08 (95% CI: 1·00–1·26) for P1 and 2·36 (2·03–2·71) for P2. On March 22nd, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 and P2 are estimated at 1·19 (1·04–1·34) and 1·75 (1·26–2·11) respectively. After the partial curfew had taken effect, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 dropped modestly to 1·05 (0·82–1·26) but almost doubled for P2 to 2·89 (2·30–3·70). Our simulated epidemic trajectories show that the partial curfew measure greatly reduced and delayed the height of the peak in P1, yet significantly elevated and hastened the peak in P2. Modest cross-transmission between P1 and P2 greatly elevated the height of the peak in P1 and brought it forward in time closer to the peak of P2. Conclusion Our results indicate and quantify how the same lockdown intervention can accentuate disease transmission in some subpopulations while potentially controlling it in others. Any such control may further become compromised in the presence of cross-transmission between subpopulations. Future interventions and policies need to be sensitive to socioeconomic and health disparities.


Author(s):  
Dr. Thadei A. Kiwango

This paper determines the impact of modelling technology integration for of out-of-school (OST) learning on academic achievement in primary schools. The research was conducted in Arusha Region, specifically in Meru District. The paper adopted the experimental design, involving experimental and control groups. Each of the two groups comprised three (3) schools, making a total of six (6) schools. The experiment was conducted using Digital Video Disks (DVDs), mobile phones, notebooks and home assignment booklets. The tools were further supplemented by a list of perceived best practices, and examination papers. The findings reveal a statistically significant difference in mean scores between the control and experimental groups as confirmed by 95% confidence level whereby, F (1, 180) = 28.63, p=0. Based on the findings, null hypothesis was rejected, leading to the conclusion that the proposed model for OST technology integration is attributed to significant improvements in academic achievement for primary school OST learners. The implication of these findings is for researchers, and other educational stakeholders, including the government to invest in devising contextually relevant model, and mobilizing parents, teachers and learners with a view to hastening technology integration in order to improve academic achievements for primary school pupils. There is also a need for studies that further explore technology integration opportunities, and associated challenges in a bid to addressing poor academic performance among primary school pupils.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin Bootsma ◽  
Janneke van de Wijgert ◽  
...  

Abstract The role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We used an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.


1997 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy J. Shephard

Advocates of quality daily physical education for prepubescent children frequently encounter the argument that such initiatives will harm academic progress. The impact of daily physical education upon the academic performance of primary school students is thus reviewed with particular reference to studies conducted in Vanves (France), Australia, and Trois Rivières (Québec). When a substantial proportion of curricular time (14–26%) is allocated to physical activity, learning seems to proceed more rapidly per unit of classroom time, so that academic performance matches, and may even exceed, that of control students. Children receiving additional physical education show an acceleration of their psychomotor development, and this could provide a mechanism for accelerated learning of academic skills. Other potential mechanisms include increased cerebral blood flow, greater arousal, changes in hormone levels, enhanced nutrient intake, changes in body build, and increased self esteem. Academic teachers may also favor the enhanced physical education program, creating “halo” effects, and the resulting release time may enhance their academic teaching. Irrespective of mechanisms, the implication for public policy is that daily required physical education can be introduced when a child enters primary school without compromising academic development. Given the importance of establishing positive health habits from an early age, school boards should be encouraged to follow a policy of required daily physical activity in primary schools. Evidence of specific benefit in students with learning disabilities remains less convincing.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 156-167
Author(s):  
Nicoleta Sămărescu

The eLearning instruments that have been researched in the last few years represent a necessity for the Romanian primary school also within the development of the alternative learning sources. These cognitive instruments as D.H. Jonassen names them, are utilized in the USA and are researched in other countries, too (France) in order to be implemented. The aim of this article is to implement and to recommend the utilization of electronic models: text and image processing sheets, presentation sheets, spreadsheets in the teaching­learning process in primary school. According to this aim, the research hypothesis has been issued in keeping with which we anticipate to be able to offer a well thought training in the eLearning field by updating the teaching and learning process with the help of the implementation of a set of electronic models which will increase the intercepting coefficient, the motivation, stimulation, imagination and enthusiasm degree for the learning actors and will redefine the teacher-pupil relation. The main objectives which derive from the hypothesis of our study confine to establishing the impact of electronic models of the eLeaming Set that has been proposed to be implemented on the actors primary school in the teaching-learning process; rendering the teaching-learning process efficient by implementing cognitive models with electronic support; working out an operational guide that contains scientific-practical recommendations and lesson models that utilize PeL; enriching the mathematical thinking. The study sample covers a population that wishes to know, to participate in the implementing of the new technologies. The sample was composed as follows: 121 teachers in primary schools, most of them students of the University in Pite


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