Identifying priority landscapes for conservation of snow leopards in Pakistan

Pakistan’s total estimated snow leopard habitat is about 80,000 km2 of which about half is considered prime habitat. However, this preliminary demarcation was not always in close agreement with the actual distribution—the discrepancy may be huge at the local and regional level. Recent technological developments like camera trapping and molecular genetics allow for collecting reliable presence records that could be used to construct realistic species distribution based on empirical data and advanced mathematical approaches like MaxEnt. The current study followed this approach to construct an accurate distribution of the species in Pakistan. Moreover, movement corridors, among different landscapes, were also identified through circuit theory. The probability of habitat suitability, generated from 98 presence points and 11 environmental variables, scored the snow leopard’s assumed range in Pakistan, from 0 to 0.97. A large portion of the known range represented low-quality habitat, including areas in lower Chitral, Swat, Astore, and Kashmir. Conversely, Khunjerab, Misgar, Chapursan, Qurumber, Broghil, and Central Karakoram represented high-quality habitats. Variables with higher contributions in the MaxEnt model were precipitation during the driest month (34%), annual mean temperature (19.5%), mean diurnal range of temperature (9.8%), annual precipitation (9.4%), and river density (9.2). The model was validated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and defined thresholds. The average test AUC in Maxent for the replicate runs was 0.933 while the value of AUC by ROC curve calculated at 0.15 threshold was 1.00. These validation tests suggested a good model fit and strong predictive power. The connectivity analysis revealed that the population in the Hindukush landscape appears to be more connected with the population in Afghanistan as compared to other populations in Pakistan. Similarly, the Pamir-Karakoram population is better connected with China and Tajikistan, while the Himalayan population was connected with the population in India. Based on our findings we propose three model landscapes to be considered under the Global Snow Leopard Ecosystem Protection Program (GSLEP) agenda as regional priority areas, to safeguard the future of the snow leopard in Pakistan and the region. These landscapes fall within mountain ranges of the Himalaya, Hindu Kush and Karakoram-Pamir, respectively. We also identified gaps in the existing protected areas network and suggest new protected areas in Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan to protect critical habitats of snow leopard in Pakistan.

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Identifying Priority Landscapes for Conservation of Snow Leopards in Pakistan

10.1101/2020.01.27.920975 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shoaib Hameed ◽

Jaffar ud Din ◽

Hussain Ali ◽

Muhammad Kabir ◽

Muhammad Younas ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Protected Areas ◽

Snow Leopard ◽

Actual Distribution ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Diurnal Range ◽

Technological Developments ◽

Habitat Suitability Map ◽

Snow Leopards ◽

Gilgit Baltistan

AbstractPakistan’s total estimated snow leopard habitat is about 80,000 km2 of which about half is considered prime. However, this preliminary demarcation was not always in close agreement with the actual distribution—the discrepancy may be huge at the local and regional level. Recent technological developments like camera trapping and molecular genetics allow for collecting reliable presence records that could be used to construct realistic species distribution based on empirical data and advanced mathematical approaches like MaxEnt. Current study followed this approach to construct accurate distribution of the species in Pakistan. Moreover, movement corridors, among different landscapes, were also identified through the circuit theory. The habitat suitability map, generated from 384 presence points and 28 environmental variables, scored the snow leopard’s assumed range in Pakistan, from 0 to 0.97. A large shear of previously known range represented low-quality habitat, including areas in lower Chitral, Swat, Astore and Kashmir. Conversely, Khunjerab, Misgar, Chapursan, Qurumber, Broghil, and Central Karakoram represented high-quality habitats. Variables with higher contribution in the MaxEnt model were precipitation of driest month (34%), annual mean temperature (19.5%), mean diurnal range of temperature (9.8%), annual precipitation (9.4%) and river density (9.2). The validation texts suggest a good model fit, and strong prediction power.The connectivity analysis revealed that the population in the Hindukush landscape appears to be more connected with the population in Afghanistan as compared to other populations in Pakistan. Similarly, the Pamir-Karakoram population is better connected with China and Tajikistan, while the Himalayan population was with the population in India.Current study allows for proposing three model landscapes to be considered under GSLEP agenda as regional priority areas, to safeguard safeguard future of the species in the long run. These landsacpes fall in mountain ranges of the Himalaya, Hindu Kush and Karakoram-Pamir, respectively. We also identified gaps in existing protected areas network, and suggest new protected areas in Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan to protect critical habitats of snow leopard in Pakistan.

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Modelling Potential Distribution of Snow Leopards in Pamir, Northern Pakistan: Implications for Human–Snow Leopard Conflicts

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su132313229 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (23) ◽

pp. 13229

Author(s):

Wajid Rashid ◽

Jianbin Shi ◽

Inam ur Rahim ◽

Muhammad Qasim ◽

Muhammad Naveed Baloch ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Model Performance ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Snow Leopard ◽

Northern Pakistan ◽

Human Presence ◽

Temperature Range ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Snow Leopards

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is a cryptic and rare big cat inhabiting Asia’s remote and harsh elevated areas. Its population has decreased across the globe for various reasons, including human–snow leopard conflicts (HSCs). Understanding the snow leopard’s distribution range and habitat interactions with human/livestock is essential for understanding the ecological context in which HSCs occur and thus gives insights into how to mitigate HSCs. In this study, a MaxEnt model predicted the snow leopard’s potential distribution and analyzed the land use/cover to determine the habitat interactions of snow leopards with human/livestock in Karakoram–Pamir, northern Pakistan. The results indicated an excellent model performance for predicting the species’ potential distribution. The variables with higher contributions to the model were the mean diurnal temperature range (51.7%), annual temperature range (18.5%), aspect (14.2%), and land cover (6.9%). The model predicted approximately 10% of the study area as a highly suitable habitat for snow leopards. Appropriate areas included those at an altitude ranging from 2721 to 4825 m, with a mean elevation of 3796.9 ± 432 m, overlapping between suitable snow leopard habitats and human presence. The human encroachment (human settlements and agriculture) in suitable snow leopard habitat increased by 115% between 2008 and 2018. Increasing encroachment and a clear overlap between snow leopard suitable habitat and human activities, signs of growing competition between wildlife and human/livestock for limited rangeland resources, may have contributed to increasing HSCs. A sound land use plan is needed to minimize overlaps between suitable snow leopard habitat and human presence to mitigate HSCs in the long run.

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Conservation of snow leopards: spill-over benefits for other carnivores?

Oryx ◽

10.1017/s0030605315001040 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 50 (2) ◽

pp. 239-243 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Justine S. Alexander ◽

Jeremy J. Cusack ◽

Chen Pengju ◽

Shi Kun ◽

Philip Riordan

Keyword(s):

Red Fox ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Camera Trap ◽

Snow Leopard ◽

Lynx Lynx ◽

Eurasian Lynx ◽

Detection Rates ◽

Cuon Alpinus ◽

Sign Surveys ◽

Snow Leopards

AbstractIn high-altitude settings of Central Asia the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia has been recognized as a potential umbrella species. As a first step in assessing the potential benefits of snow leopard conservation for other carnivores, we sought a better understanding of the presence of other carnivores in areas occupied by snow leopards in China's Qilianshan National Nature Reserve. We used camera-trap and sign surveys to examine whether other carnivores were using the same travel routes as snow leopards at two spatial scales. We also considered temporal interactions between species. Our results confirm that other carnivores, including the red fox Vulpes vulpes, grey wolf Canis lupus, Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx and dhole Cuon alpinus, occur along snow leopard travel routes, albeit with low detection rates. Even at the smaller scale of our camera trap survey all five carnivores (snow leopard, lynx, wolf, red fox and dhole) were observed. Kernel density estimates suggested a high degree of temporal overlap between the snow leopard and the fox, and the snow leopard and the lynx, as indicated by high overlap coefficient estimates. There is an opportunity to consider protective measures at the local scale that would benefit various species simultaneously. However, it should also be recognized that snow leopard conservation efforts could exacerbate human–wildlife conflicts through their protective effect on other carnivore species.

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Studying the snow leopard: reconceptualizing conservation across the China–India border

BJHS Themes ◽

10.1017/bjt.2016.8 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 1 ◽

pp. 169-198

Author(s):

MICHAEL LEWIS ◽

E. ELENA SONGSTER

Keyword(s):

Local Communities ◽

Snow Leopard ◽

Recent Past ◽

Conservation Science ◽

The West ◽

Ideal Case ◽

Potential Source ◽

Snow Leopards

AbstractThe snow leopard is a highly charismatic megafauna that elicits admiration, concern and donations from individuals and NGOs in the West. In its home territories, however, it is a threat to local communities' livestock and a potential source of income for its pelt and parts. Conservation and study are further challenged by its range; snow leopards traverse the borders separating China, India and ten other countries with long histories of tension with each other as well as internal political and economic struggles. This transnational animal provides an ideal case study for the consideration of transnational conservation science in the recent past.

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Snow Leopard Dietary Preferences and Livestock Predation Revealed by Fecal DNA Metabarcoding: No Evidence for Apparent Competition Between Wild and Domestic Prey

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution ◽

10.3389/fevo.2021.783546 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Qi Lu ◽

Lingyun Xiao ◽

Chen Cheng ◽

Zhi Lu ◽

Jindong Zhao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Dietary Habits ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Apparent Competition ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Snow Leopard ◽

Livestock Predation ◽

Prey Preferences ◽

Livestock Density ◽

Dna Metabarcoding ◽

Snow Leopards

Accurate assessments of the patterns and drivers of livestock depredation by wild carnivores are vital for designing effective mitigation strategies to reduce human-wildlife conflict. Snow leopard’s (Panthera uncia) range extensively overlaps pastoralist land-use and livestock predation there is widely reported, but the ecological determinants of livestock consumption by snow leopards remain obscure. We investigated snow leopard dietary habits at seven sites across the Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), an area central to the species’ global range. Snow leopard abundance, wild prey composition, and livestock density varied among those sites, thus allowing us to test the effects of various factors on snow leopard diet and livestock predation. Using DNA metabarcoding, we obtained highly resolved dietary data from 351 genetically verified snow leopard fecal samples. We then analyzed the prey preferences of snow leopards and examined ecological factors related to their livestock consumption. Across the sites, snow leopard prey was composed mainly of wild ungulates (mean = 81.5% of dietary sequences), particularly bharal (Pseudois nayaur), and supplemented with livestock (7.62%) and smaller mammals (marmots, pikas, mice; 10.7%). Snow leopards showed a strong preference for bharal, relative to livestock, based on their densities. Interestingly, both proportional and total livestock consumption by snow leopards increased linearly with local livestock biomass, but not with livestock density. That, together with a slight negative relationship with bharal density, supports apparent facilitation between wild and domestic prey. We also found a significant positive correlation between population densities of snow leopard and bharal, yet those densities showed slight negative relationships with livestock density. Our results highlight the importance of sufficient wild ungulate abundance to the conservation of viable snow leopard populations. Additionally, livestock protection is critically needed to reduce losses to snow leopard depredation, especially where local livestock abundances are high.

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Implications of landscape genetics and connectivity of snow leopard in the Nepalese Himalayas for its conservation

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-76912-7 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Bikram Shrestha ◽

Pavel Kindlmann

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Genetic Structure ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Snow Leopard ◽

Tree Line ◽

Large Mammals ◽

Alpine Zone ◽

Suitability Maps ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Snow Leopards

AbstractThe snow leopard is one of the most endangered large mammals. Its population, already low, is declining, most likely due to the consequences of human activity, including a reduction in the size and number of suitable habitats. With climate change, habitat loss may escalate, because of an upward shift in the tree line and concomitant loss of the alpine zone, where the snow leopard lives. Migration between suitable areas, therefore, is important because a decline in abundance in these areas may result in inbreeding, fragmentation of populations, reduction in genetic variation due to habitat fragmentation, loss of connectivity, bottlenecks or genetic drift. Here we use our data collected in Nepal to determine the areas suitable for snow leopards, by using habitat suitability maps, and describe the genetic structure of the snow leopard within and between these areas. We also determine the influence of landscape features on the genetic structure of its populations and reveal corridors connecting suitable areas. We conclude that it is necessary to protect these natural corridors to maintain the possibility of snow leopards’ migration between suitable areas, which will enable gene flow between the diminishing populations and thus maintain a viable metapopulation of snow leopards.

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Factors contributing to a striking shift in human–wildlife dynamics in Hemis National Park, India: 22 years of reported snow leopard depredation

Oryx ◽

10.1017/s0030605317001892 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 53 (1) ◽

pp. 58-62 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Pushpinder S. Jamwal ◽

Jigmet Takpa ◽

Michael H. Parsons

Keyword(s):

National Park ◽

Large Population ◽

Well Being ◽

Snow Leopard ◽

Before And After ◽

The Government ◽

Hunting Regulations ◽

Government Records ◽

Snow Leopards ◽

Free Ranging

AbstractHemis National Park of the Trans-Himalayas is home to a large population of the snow leopard Panthera uncia and increasing numbers of agro-pastoralists. To persist in this harsh terrain, farmers have to either farm livestock or hunt free-ranging, native ungulates. The availability of more livestock and fewer natural prey created a dynamic whereby snow leopards depredated livestock, followed by retaliatory killing of snow leopards. In 1992, to assist farmers and wildlife, the government enacted a cost-compensation scheme. Following a decade with marginally fewer depredation events, in 2002, two additional strategies were implemented: predator-proof holding pens and the Himalayan Homestay Programme. We assessed 22 years (1992–2013) of depredation data, comparing the periods before and after the additional initiatives. Government records showed that during 1992–2013, 1,624 livestock were depredated from 339 sites, with c. USD 15,000 paid as compensation. There were significantly more kills annually before (a mean of 41) than after (3.5) the initiatives, and mass killings (≥ 5 animals killed per attack) were significantly reduced from 5.5 to 0.5 events per year. Goats and sheep (57%) and horses (13%) comprised the majority of losses. The marked reduction in depredation occurred whilst regulations against hunting were being enforced, probably resulting in an increase in the number of wild prey as alternative food. We conclude that together, cost-compensation, tighter hunting regulations, improved holding pens and the Homestay Programme helped support the well-being of the community while aiding conservation efforts.

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Large carnivores and low diversity of optimal prey: a comparison of the diets of snow leopards Panthera uncia and wolves Canis lupus in Sarychat-Ertash Reserve in Kyrgyzstan

Oryx ◽

10.1017/s0030605313000306 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 48 (4) ◽

pp. 529-535 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Kubanychbek Jumabay-Uulu ◽

Per Wegge ◽

Charudutt Mishra ◽

Koustubh Sharma

Keyword(s):

Canis Lupus ◽

Tien Shan ◽

Snow Leopard ◽

Large Prey ◽

Field Surveys ◽

Competition For Food ◽

Snow Leopards ◽

Ovis Ammon ◽

Tien Shan Mountains ◽

Panthera Uncia

AbstractIn the cold and arid mountains of Central Asia, where the diversity and abundance of wild ungulates are generally low, resource partitioning among coexisting carnivores is probably less distinct than in prey-rich areas. Thus, similar-sized carnivores are likely to compete for food. We compared the summer diets of snow leopards Panthera uncia and wolves Canis lupus in Sarychat-Ertash Reserve in the Tien-Shan mountains of Kyrgyzstan, based on analysis of genetically confirmed scats. Abundances of the principal prey species, argali Ovis ammon and Siberian ibex Capra sibirica, were estimated from field surveys. The diets consisted of few species, with high interspecific overlap (Pianka's index = 0.91). Argali was the predominant prey, with > 50% frequency of occurrence in both snow leopard and wolf scats. This was followed by Siberian ibex and marmots Marmota baibacina. Being largely unavailable, remains of livestock were not detected in any of the scats. In the snow leopard diet, proportions of argali and ibex were in line with the relative availabilities of these animals in the Reserve. This was in contrast to the diet of wolf, where argali occurred according to availability and ibex was significantly underrepresented. The high diet overlap indicates that the two predators might compete for food when the diversity of profitable, large prey is low. Competition may be more intense in winter, when marmots are not available. Hunting of argali and ibex outside the Reserve may be unsustainable and therefore reduce their abundances over time. This will affect both predators negatively and intensify competition for food. Reduction in ibex populations will directly affect the snow leopard, and the wolf is likely to be indirectly affected as a result of increased snow leopard predation of argali.

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Status of the mountain ungulate prey of the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in the Tost Local Protected Area, South Gobi, Mongolia

Oryx ◽

10.1017/s0030605314001203 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 50 (2) ◽

pp. 214-219 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Lkhagvasumberel Tumursukh ◽

Kulbhushansingh R. Suryawanshi ◽

Charudutt Mishra ◽

Thomas M. McCarthy ◽

Bazartseren Boldgiv

Keyword(s):

Protected Area ◽

Nature Reserve ◽

Camera Trap ◽

Snow Leopard ◽

Wild Ungulates ◽

Mountainous Regions ◽

Demographic Surveys ◽

Snow Leopards ◽

Ovis Ammon ◽

Panthera Uncia

AbstractThe availability of wild prey is a critical predictor of carnivore density. However, few conservation programmes have focused on the estimation and monitoring of wild ungulate populations and their trends, especially in the remote mountains of Central Asia. We conducted double-observer surveys to estimate the populations of ibex Capra sibirica and argali Ovis ammon in the mountainous regions of Tost Local Protected Area, South Gobi province, Mongolia, which is being considered for designation as a Nature Reserve. We also conducted demographic surveys of the more abundant ibex to examine their sex-ratio and the survival of young during 2012–2013. The estimated ibex population remained stable in 2012 and 2013 and the estimated argali population increased from 108 in 2012 to 230 in 2013. The biomass of wild ungulates was c. 6% that of livestock. Mortality in young ibex appeared to increase after weaning, at the age of 12 months. We estimated the population of wild ungulates was sufficient to support 14–18 adult snow leopards Panthera uncia. The adult snow leopard population in our study area during 2012–2013, estimated independently using camera-trap-based mark–recapture methods, was 12–14. Based on our results we identify the Tost Local Protected Area as an important habitat for the conservation of these ungulates and their predator, the Endangered snow leopard, and recommend elevation of its status to a Nature Reserve.

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