The impact of climate change induced alterations of streamflow and stream temperature on the distribution of riparian species

Distributions of riparian species will likely shift due to climate change induced alterations in temperature and rainfall patterns, which alter stream habitat. Spatial forecasting of suitable habitat in projected climatic conditions will inform management interventions that support wildlife. Challenges in developing forecasts include the need to consider the large number of riparian species that might respond differently to changing conditions and the need to evaluate the many different characteristics of streamflow and stream temperature that drive species-specific habitat suitability. In particular, in dynamic environments like streams, the short-term temporal resolution of species occurrence and streamflow need to be considered to identify the types of conditions that support various species. To address these challenges, we cluster species based on habitat characteristics to select habitat representatives and we evaluate regional changes in habitat suitability using short-term, temporally explicit metrics that describe the streamflow and stream temperature regime. We use stream-specific environmental predictors rather than climatic variables. Unlike other studies, the stream-specific environmental predictors are generated from the time that species were observed in a particular reach, in addition to long term trends, to evaluate habitat preferences. With species occurrence data from local monitoring surveys and streamflow and stream temperature modeled from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ‐ Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections, we predict change in habitat suitability at the end-of-century. The relative importance of hydrology and stream temperature varied by cluster. High altitudinal, cold water species’ distributions contracted, while lower elevation, warm water species distributions expanded. Modeling with short-term temporally explicit environmental metrics did produce different end-of-century projections than using long-term averages for some of the representative species. These findings can help wildlife managers prioritize conservation efforts, manage streamflow, initiate monitoring of species in vulnerable clusters, and address stressors, such as passage barriers, in areas projected to be suitable in future climate conditions.

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Shallow groundwater thermal sensitivity to climate change and land cover disturbances: derivation of analytical expressions and implications for stream temperature projections

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-11-12573-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 12573-12626 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

B. L. Kurylyk ◽

K. T. B. MacQuarrie ◽

D. Caissie ◽

J. M. McKenzie

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Surface ◽

Thermal Sensitivity ◽

Shallow Groundwater ◽

Stream Temperature ◽

Heat Fluxes ◽

Short Term ◽

Surface Warming ◽

Advection Diffusion Equation

Abstract. Climate change is expected to increase stream temperatures, and the projected warming may alter the spatial extent of habitat for coldwater fish and other aquatic taxa. Recent studies have proposed that stream thermal sensitivities, derived from short term air temperature variations, can be employed to infer future stream warming due to long term climate change. However, this approach does not consider the potential for streambed heat fluxes to increase due to gradual warming of shallow groundwater. The temperature of shallow groundwater is particularly important for the thermal regimes of groundwater-dominated streams and rivers. Also, other recent stream temperature studies have investigated how land surface perturbations, such as wildfires or timber harvesting, can influence stream temperatures by changing surface heat fluxes, but these studies have typically not considered how these surface disturbances can also alter shallow groundwater temperatures and consequent streambed heat fluxes. In this study, several analytical solutions to the one-dimensional unsteady advection–diffusion equation for subsurface heat transport are employed to investigate the timing and magnitude of groundwater warming due to seasonal and long term variability in land surface temperatures. Novel groundwater thermal sensitivity formulae are proposed that accommodate different surface warming scenarios. The thermal sensitivity formulae demonstrate that shallow groundwater will warm in response to climate change and other surface perturbations, but the timing and magnitude of the warming depends on the rate of surface warming, subsurface thermal properties, aquifer depth, and groundwater velocity. The results also emphasize the difference between the thermal sensitivity of shallow groundwater to short term (e.g. seasonal) and long term (e.g. multi-decadal) land surface temperature variability, and thus demonstrate the limitations of using short term air and water temperature records to project future stream warming.

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Shallow groundwater thermal sensitivity to climate change and land cover disturbances: derivation of analytical expressions and implications for stream temperature modeling

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-19-2469-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 19 (5) ◽

pp. 2469-2489 ◽

Cited By ~ 40

Author(s):

B. L. Kurylyk ◽

K. T. B. MacQuarrie ◽

D. Caissie ◽

J. M. McKenzie

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Surface ◽

Thermal Sensitivity ◽

Shallow Groundwater ◽

Stream Temperature ◽

Heat Fluxes ◽

Short Term ◽

Surface Warming ◽

Advection Diffusion Equation

Abstract. Climate change is expected to increase stream temperatures and the projected warming may alter the spatial extent of habitat for cold-water fish and other aquatic taxa. Recent studies have proposed that stream thermal sensitivities, derived from short-term air temperature variations, can be employed to infer future stream warming due to long-term climate change. However, this approach does not consider the potential for streambed heat fluxes to increase due to gradual warming of the shallow subsurface. The temperature of shallow groundwater is particularly important for the thermal regimes of groundwater-dominated streams and rivers. Also, recent studies have investigated how land surface perturbations, such as wildfires or timber harvesting, can influence stream temperatures by changing stream surface heat fluxes, but these studies have typically not considered how these surface disturbances can also alter shallow groundwater temperatures and streambed heat fluxes. In this study, several analytical solutions to the one-dimensional unsteady advection–diffusion equation for subsurface heat transport are employed to estimate the timing and magnitude of groundwater temperature changes due to seasonal and long-term variability in land surface temperatures. Groundwater thermal sensitivity formulae are proposed that accommodate different surface warming scenarios. The thermal sensitivity formulae suggest that shallow groundwater will warm in response to climate change and other surface perturbations, but the timing and magnitude of the subsurface warming depends on the rate of surface warming, subsurface thermal properties, bulk aquifer depth, and groundwater velocity. The results also emphasize the difference between the thermal sensitivity of shallow groundwater to short-term (e.g., seasonal) and long-term (e.g., multi-decadal) land surface-temperature variability, and thus demonstrate the limitations of using short-term air and water temperature records to project future stream warming. Suggestions are provided for implementing these formulae in stream temperature models to accommodate groundwater warming.

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Satellites, Self-reports, and Submersion: Exposure to Floods in Bangladesh

The American Economic Review ◽

10.1257/aer.p20151095 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 105 (5) ◽

pp. 232-236 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Raymond Guiteras ◽

Amir Jina ◽

A. Mushfiq Mobarak

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Objective Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Flood Exposure ◽

Self Reports ◽

Term Variation

A burgeoning “Climate-Economy” literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity, but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena, like natural disasters. We develop new, objective data on floods, focusing on Bangladesh. We show that rainfall and self-reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure. These data allow us to study adaptation, giving accurate measures of both long-term averages and short term variation in exposure. This is important in studying climate change impacts, as people will not only experience new exposures, but also experience them differently.

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Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments

Global Environmental Change ◽

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.09.001 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 277-293 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Jan Corfee-Morlot ◽

Niklas Höhne

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Short Term

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Introduction

The Phanerozoic Carbon Cycle ◽

10.1093/oso/9780195173338.003.0003 ◽

2004 ◽

Author(s):

Robert A. Berner

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Carbon Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Geological Time ◽

Short Term ◽

Quaternary Period ◽

Geological Time Scale ◽

The Earth

The cycle of carbon is essential to the maintenance of life, to climate, and to the composition of the atmosphere and oceans. What is normally thought of as the “carbon cycle” is the transfer of carbon between the atmosphere, the oceans, and life. This is not the subject of interest of this book. To understand this apparently confusing statement, it is necessary to separate the carbon cycle into two cycles: the short-term cycle and the long-term cycle. The “carbon cycle,” as most people understand it, is represented in figure 1.1. Carbon dioxide is taken up via photosynthesis by green plants on the continents or phytoplankton in the ocean. On land carbon is transferred to soils by the dropping of leaves, root growth, and respiration, the death of plants, and the development of soil biota. Land herbivores eat the plants, and carnivores eat the herbivores. In the oceans the phytoplankton are eaten by zooplankton that are in turn eaten by larger and larger organisms. The plants, plankton, and animals respire CO2. Upon death the plants and animals are decomposed by microorganisms with the ultimate production of CO2. Carbon dioxide is exchanged between the oceans and atmosphere, and dissolved organic matter is carried in solution by rivers from soils to the sea. This all constitutes the shortterm carbon cycle. The word “short-term” is used because the characteristic times for transferring carbon between reservoirs range from days to tens of thousands of years. Because the earth is more than four billion years old, this is short on a geological time scale. As the short-term cycle proceeds, concentrations of the two principal atmospheric gases, CO2 and CH4, can change as a result of perturbations of the cycle. Because these two are both greenhouse gases—in other words, they adsorb outgoing infrared radiation from the earth surface—changes in their concentrations can involve global warming and cooling over centuries and many millennia. Such changes have accompanied global climate change over the Quaternary period (past 2 million years), although other factors, such as variations in the receipt of solar radiation due to changes in characteristics of the earth’s orbit, have also contributed to climate change.

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The Effect of Incentives: Diffusion of Responsibility

10.1093/oso/9780190076559.003.0010 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 166-182

Author(s):

Jason Brennan ◽

William English ◽

John Hasnas ◽

Peter Jaworski

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Collective Action ◽

Tragedy Of The Commons ◽

Short Term ◽

Collective Action Problem ◽

P Diffusion ◽

Perverse Incentives ◽

The Commons ◽

Diffusion Of Responsibility

Diffusion of responsibility refers to the problem that when something is everyone’s job, it in effect ends up being nobody’s job. This explains why many collective problems arise. People face perverse incentives to free ride on others’ actions and not to do their part. As a result, agents often think in short-term rather than long-term ways. Problems such as climate change can be modeled as instances of the tragedy of the commons, one form of a collective action problem that arises due to perverse incentives created by the diffusion of responsibility.

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Nemo-Nordic 1.0: A NEMO based ocean model for Baltic & North Seas, research and operational applications

10.5194/gmd-2018-2 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Robinson Hordoir ◽

Lars Axell ◽

Anders Höglund ◽

Christian Dieterich ◽

Filippa Fransner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Anthropogenic Pressure ◽

Short Term ◽

To Come ◽

Ocean Forecasting ◽

The Baltic ◽

Industrialised Countries ◽

High Degree

Abstract. We present Nemo-Nordic, a Baltic & North Sea model based on the NEMO ocean engine. Surrounded by highly industrialised countries, the Baltic and North seas, and their assets associated with shipping, fishing and tourism; are vulnerable to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Ocean models providing reliable forecasts, and enabling climatic studies, are important tools for the shipping infrastructure and to get a better understanding of effects of climate change on the marine ecosystems. Nemo-Nordic is intended to come as a tool for both short term and long term simulations, and to be used for ocean forecasting as well as process and climatic studies. Here, the scientific and technical choices within Nemo-Nordic are introduced, and the reasons behind the design of the model and its domain, and the inclusions of the two seas, are explained. The model's ability to represent barotropic and baroclinic dynamics, as well as the vertical structure of the water column, is presented. Biases are shown and discussed. The short term capabilities of the model are presented, and especially its capabilities to represent sea level on an hourly timescale with a high degree of accuracy. We also show that the model can represent longer time scale, with a focus on the Major Baltic Inflows and the variability of deep water salinity in the Baltic Sea.

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The development of climate security discourse in Japan

Sustainability Science ◽

10.1007/s11625-020-00863-1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 271-281

Author(s):

Yasuko Kameyama ◽

Keishi Ono

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Specific Reference ◽

Short Term ◽

Weather Patterns ◽

Security Discourse ◽

Level Of Understanding ◽

Change Problem ◽

Indirect Economic Losses

AbstractAs the level of understanding about climate change has increased, the term “climate security” has been increasingly used in the rapidly growing literature on this subject. Although Japan has officially acknowledged the importance of tackling climate change, discussion of climate security has been almost nonexistent among Japanese governmental officials, politicians, and academics. Our aim was to trace discourses related to climate security in Japan to determine why so little exists in Japan and whether or not such discourse could suggest new areas for consideration to more comprehensively respond to the climate change problem. Because of different interpretations and uses of the term “climate security” in the existing literature, we first categorized existing approaches to climate security into four types and used this categorization to examine Japan’s discourse from these perspectives. Two of the approaches, namely “long-term irreversible planetary changes” and “short-term abrupt risks to individuals”, had been considered in Japan previously but without specific reference to the term climate security. The other two, “cause of conflict and violence” and “impacts to military and defense organizations”, however, had not been used and need to be included in discussions of climate change in Japan. Some of the topics not discussed in Japan include indirect economic losses of Japanese industries via supply chains, loss of Japan’s exclusive economic zone due to sea-level rise, and the potential inflow of refugees resulting from extreme weather patterns outside of Japan.

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Perception and risk of Covid-19 and climate change: investigating analogies in a common framework

Global Sustainability ◽

10.1017/sus.2020.30 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

Author(s):

Antonello Pasini ◽

Fulvio Mazzocchi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Structural Changes ◽

Short Term ◽

Common Features ◽

Risk Equation ◽

Related Risk ◽

Policy Level ◽

Common Framework

This paper investigates analogies in the dynamics of Covid-19 pandemic and climate change. A comparison of their common features (such as nonlinearity and inertia) and differences helps us to achieve a correct scientific perception of both situations, increasing the chances of actions for their solutions. Besides, applying to both the risk equation provides different angles to analyse them, something that may result useful especially at the policy level. It shows that not only short-term interventions are needed, but also long-term strategies involving some structural changes. More specifically, it also shows that, even if climate change is probably more critical and long-lasting than the Covid-19 crisis, we still have, at least currently, more options for reducing its related risk.

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