Integrating stakeholders’ perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959–1999) and present (2000–2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders’ perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders’ perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8–20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5–5% and 10–19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.

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Joining the dots of land-use and land-cover change in Eastern Africa

Past Global Change Magazine ◽

10.22498/pages.26.1.16 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

pp. 16-17

Author(s):

Oliver Boles ◽

C Courtney-Mustaphi ◽

S Richer ◽

R Marchant

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Eastern Africa

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Land-Use/Land-Cover Change and Anthropogenic Causes Around Koupa Matapit Gallery Forest, West-Cameroon

Journal of Geography and Geology ◽

10.5539/jgg.v10n2p56 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 56 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Marie Caroline Solefack Momo ◽

Andre Ledoux Njouonkou ◽

Lucie Felicite Temgoua ◽

Romuald Djouda Zangmene ◽

Junior Baudoin Wouokoue Taffo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Satellite Images ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Local Population ◽

Forest Products ◽

Anthropogenic Factors ◽

Significant Implication ◽

Gallery Forest

This study assesses land cover change of the Koupa Matapit forest gallery, West Cameroon, in relation to anthropogenic factors. Ethnobotanical surveys were conducted to investigate the relationships between the local population and the gallery forest; the spatio-temporal dynamics of the landscapes around the gallery forest were studied from the diachronic analysis of three Landsat TM satellite images of 1984, Landsat ETM + 1999 and Landsat OLI_TIRS of 2016, supplemented by verification missions on field. The satellite images were processed using ArcGIS and Erdas Imagine software. According to surveys, it should be noted that agriculture and livestock are the main economic activities of the population of Koupa Matapit, agriculture and fuel wood collection for energy were the main anthropogenic activities responsible for deforestation and degradation of the forest gallery. The collection of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) would have a significant implication in land use and cover changes. The results indicate that the extension of savannah/agricultural land (from 6989 ha in 1984 to 7604 ha in 2016) and bare soil/built up area (from 71 ha in 1984 to 342 ha in 2016) would have led to the disappearance of much of the forest area (1465 ha in 1984 to 580 ha in 2016). The rapid population growth of Koupa Matapit would be responsible for these pressures. There is an urgent need to implement appropriate land use policy in this area.

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Retrieval of Land-Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) Maps and Urban Expansion Dynamics of Hyderabad, Pakistan via Landsat Datasets and Support Vector Machine Framework

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13163337 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (16) ◽

pp. 3337

Author(s):

Shaker Ul Din ◽

Hugo Wai Leung Mak

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Support Vector Machine ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Support Vector ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Landsat Images ◽

Barren Land

Land-use/land cover change (LUCC) is an important problem in developing and under-developing countries with regard to global climatic changes and urban morphological distribution. Since the 1900s, urbanization has become an underlying cause of LUCC, and more than 55% of the world’s population resides in cities. The speedy growth, development and expansion of urban centers, rapid inhabitant’s growth, land insufficiency, the necessity for more manufacture, advancement of technologies remain among the several drivers of LUCC around the globe at present. In this study, the urban expansion or sprawl, together with spatial dynamics of Hyderabad, Pakistan over the last four decades were investigated and reviewed, based on remotely sensed Landsat images from 1979 to 2020. In particular, radiometric and atmospheric corrections were applied to these raw images, then the Gaussian-based Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel was used for training, within the 10-fold support vector machine (SVM) supervised classification framework. After spatial LUCC maps were retrieved, different metrics like Producer’s Accuracy (PA), User’s Accuracy (UA) and KAPPA coefficient (KC) were adopted for spatial accuracy assessment to ensure the reliability of the proposed satellite-based retrieval mechanism. Landsat-derived results showed that there was an increase in the amount of built-up area and a decrease in vegetation and agricultural lands. Built-up area in 1979 only covered 30.69% of the total area, while it has increased and reached 65.04% after four decades. In contrast, continuous reduction of agricultural land, vegetation, waterbody, and barren land was observed. Overall, throughout the four-decade period, the portions of agricultural land, vegetation, waterbody, and barren land have decreased by 13.74%, 46.41%, 49.64% and 85.27%, respectively. These remotely observed changes highlight and symbolize the spatial characteristics of “rural to urban transition” and socioeconomic development within a modernized city, Hyderabad, which open new windows for detecting potential land-use changes and laying down feasible future urban development and planning strategies.

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Land Use Land Cover Change and its Pathways in Sidin VDC, Panchthar District, Nepal

Geographical Journal of Nepal ◽

10.3126/gjn.v11i0.19550 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 ◽

pp. 77-94 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Prem Sagar Chapagain ◽

Mohan Kumar Rai ◽

Basanta Paudel

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Household Survey ◽

Human Interaction ◽

Series Data ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Important Indicator

Land use/land cover situation is an important indicator of human interaction with environment. It reflects both environmental situation and the livelihood strategies of the people in space over time. This paper has attempted to study the land use/ land cover change of Sidin VDC, in the Koshi River basin in Nepal, based on maps and Remote sensing imageries (RS) data and household survey using structured questionnaires, focus group discussion and key informant interview. The study has focused on analysis the trend and pathways of land use change by dividing the study area into three elevation zones – upper, middle and lower. The time series data analysis from 1994-2004-2014 show major changes in forest and agricultural land. The dominant pathways of change is from forest to agriculture and forest to shrub during 1994-2004 and agriculture to forest during 2004-2014. The development of community forest, labor migration and labor shortage are found the major causes of land use change.The Geographical Journal of NepalVol. 11: 77-94, 2018

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Land Use and Land Cover Change Detection and Prediction in the Kathmandu District of Nepal Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12093925 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 3925 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Sonam Wangyel Wang ◽

Belay Manjur Gebru ◽

Munkhnasan Lamchin ◽

Rijan Bhakta Kayastha ◽

Woo-Kyun Lee

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Water Bodies ◽

Geographical Information ◽

Land Cover Changes ◽

Rapid Urbanization ◽

Urbanized Areas

Understanding land use and land cover changes has become a necessity in managing and monitoring natural resources and development especially urban planning. Remote sensing and geographical information systems are proven tools for assessing land use and land cover changes that help planners to advance sustainability. Our study used remote sensing and geographical information system to detect and predict land use and land cover changes in one of the world’s most vulnerable and rapidly growing city of Kathmandu in Nepal. We found that over a period of 20 years (from 1990 to 2010), the Kathmandu district has lost 9.28% of its forests, 9.80% of its agricultural land and 77% of its water bodies. Significant amounts of these losses have been absorbed by the expanding urbanized areas, which has gained 52.47% of land. Predictions of land use and land cover change trends for 2030 show worsening trends with forest, agriculture and water bodies to decrease by an additional 14.43%, 16.67% and 25.83%, respectively. The highest gain in 2030 is predicted for urbanized areas at 18.55%. Rapid urbanization—coupled with lack of proper planning and high rural-urban migration—is the key driver of these changes. These changes are associated with loss of ecosystem services which will negatively impact human wellbeing in the city. We recommend city planners to mainstream ecosystem-based adaptation and mitigation into urban plans supported by strong policy and funds.

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Land Use and Land Cover Change in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202122701002 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 227 ◽

pp. 01002

Author(s):

Sherzod Rakhmonov ◽

Uktam Umurzakov ◽

Kosimdjon Rakhmonov ◽

Iqbol Bozarov ◽

Ozodbek Karamatov

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Bare Soil ◽

Aral Sea ◽

Landsat 8 ◽

Urban And Regional Planning ◽

Saline Land

This article depicts on discussions about land use and land cover change distribution in Khorezm province, Uzbekistan between 1987 and 2019. For the study Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI respectively used to detect land use changes in the study area. Khorezm region affected by Aral Sea shrinkage having received salt wind from northeast of the region. Moreover, population increased within study period, making population density intense. Research is carried out to detect reflection of ecology and density in land use. RS techniques maximum likelihood employed to classify land use to generate land cover distribution map. In total seven class selected such as agricultural land, built up, bare land, lowland, saline land, sand and waterbody. The research of Khorezm region for 32 years has been thoroughly studied and found out that agricultural land, built up and saline land increased tremendously while lowland and bare soil are decreased accordingly. The result map can be used for decision makers and government bodies for future long term urban and regional planning.

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Perubahan Tutupan Lahan Setelah 14 Tahun Bencana Tsunami (Studi Kasus di Kecamatan Baitussalam)

Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Pertanian ◽

10.17969/jimfp.v4i1.10440 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 699-707

Author(s):

Nadya Faizah ◽

Muhammad Rusdi ◽

Sugianto Sugianto

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Land Cover Changes

Abstrak. Perubahan tutupan lahan mengakibatkan beberapa penggunaan lahan menjadi berubah, terutama pada lahan pertanian yang berubah menjadi non-pertanian. Perubahan penggunaan lahan saat ini sudah sering terjadi di beberapa daerah terutama pada lahan pertanian yang berubah menjadi lahan non-pertanian. Pasca Tsunami daerah yang terkena bencana dilakukan rehabilitasi dan rekontruksi, semua aktivitas tersebut berdampak kepada perubahan tutupan lahan. Perubahan tutupan lahan diperoleh dari overlay dengan kaedah union mulai dari tahun 2004 hingga tahun 2018. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tutupan lahan selama kurun waktu 14 tahun pasca Tsunami terbesar terjadi pada pemukiman, yaitu mengalami peningkatan sebesar 550,14 ha (76,96%). sedangkan Perubahan tutupan lahan terkecil yaitu semak belukar sebesar 66,41 ha (5,06%).Land Cover Changes after 14 years of the Tsunami Case Study at Kecamatan BaitussalamAbstract. Changes in land cover have caused some land use to change, especially on agricultural land that has turned into non-agricultural land. Post-tsunami areas affected by rehabilitation and reconstruction, all of these activities have an impact on land cover change. Changes in land cover were obtained from overlays with the unification method from 2004 to 2018. The results of the analysis showed that changes in land cover for 14 years after the Tsunami occurred mostly in settlements, which increased by 550.14 ha (76.96%). while the smallest land cover change is shrubs covering an area of 66.41 ha (5.06%).

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Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-12-635-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 635-670

Author(s):

Wolfgang A. Obermeier ◽

Julia E. M. S. Nabel ◽

Tammas Loughran ◽

Kerstin Hartung ◽

Ana Bastos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Environmental Conditions ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Land Cover Changes ◽

Environmental Forcing ◽

The Impact ◽

Global Carbon

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

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Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover in the Kafta-Sheraro National Park, NW Ethiopia: Patterns, Causes and Management Implications

Momona Ethiopian Journal of Science ◽

10.4314/mejs.v11i2.5 ◽

1970 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 239-257

Author(s):

Arafaine Zenebe ◽

Asefa Addisu

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

National Park ◽

Human Population ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Human Impacts ◽

Population Expansion ◽

Population Pressure ◽

Land Cover Types

Kafta-Sheraro National Park (KSNP) is one of the most important protected areas in Ethiopia and provides a number of important ecological and hydrological benefits to the local people. However, the park is under immense pressure as a result of a rapidly increasing human population that resulted from a voluntary resettlement program launched by the government in 2003. Using satellite imageries taken in the years 2003, 2009 and 2015, this study examined patterns of changes in land use/cover throughout the park over a 12 year period (2003 to 2015), during which human population pressure is known to have increased over time and changes in government policies were taken place. The results showed that, over the period of 12 years, wood land experienced the most changeover the study period, with a loss of cover of 862.3 km2 (i.e. from 77.8% coverage of the total park area in 2003 to 38.0% in 2015) at annual rate of 79.3 km2). Conversely, the other land cover types showed increasing pattern, particularly, bush land and agricultural land were increasing at a rate of 44.96 and 18.90 km2 per year, respectively. Overall, the rate of land cover change was higher during the first period (2003 to 2009) compared with the second period (2009 to 2015) for all land use and land cover types, except grass land, suggesting that human impacts were higher following the resettlement program in 2003 and then slowed down following establishment of the park in 2007. The major causes of land cover change in the area were settlement and population expansion, cultivation, fire, mining and grazing. We suggest that better effective park protection systems should be in place to mitigate and restore habitats.

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Seasonal land use land cover change and the drivers in Kafta-Sheraro National Park, Tigray, Ethiopia

10.1101/2021.09.29.462456 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Fitsum Temesgen ◽

Bikila Warkineh ◽

Alemayehu Hailemicael

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

National Park ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Local Community ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Landsat 8 ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Cultivated Land

AbstractKafta-sheraro national park (KSNP) is one of the homes of the African elephant has experienced extensive destruction of woodland following regular land use & land cover change in the past three decades, however, up to date, data and documentation detailing for these changes are not addressed. This study aims to evaluate the land use land cover change and drivers of change that occurred between 1988 and 2018. Landsat 5(TM), Landsat7 (ETM+), and Landsat 8 (OLI/TIRs) imagery sensors, field observation, and socio-economic survey data were used. The temporal and spatial Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated and tested the correlation between NDVI and precipitation/temperature. The study computed a kappa coefficient of the dry season (0.90) and wet season (0.845). Continuous decline of woodland (29.38%) and riparian vegetation (47.11%) whereas an increasing trend of shrub-bushland (35.28%), grassland (43.47%), bareland (27.52%), and cultivated land (118.36 km2) were showed over thirty years. More results showed bare land was expanded from wet to drier months, while, cultivated land and grazing land increased from dry to wet months. Based on the NDVI result high-moderate vegetation was decreased by 21.47% while sparse & non-vegetation was expanded by 19.8% & 1.7% (36.5 km2) respectively. Settlement & agricultural expansion, human-induced fire, firewood collection, gold mining, and charcoal production were the major proximate drivers that negatively affected the park resources. Around KSNP, the local community livelihood depends on farming, expansion of agricultural land is the main driver for woodland dynamics/depletion and this leads to increase resources competition and challenges for the survival of wildlife. Therefore, urgent sustainable conservation of park biodiversity via encouraging community participation in conservation practices and preparing awareness creation programs should be mandatory.

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