scholarly journals The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249732
Author(s):  
Benjamin Born ◽  
Alexander M. Dietrich ◽  
Gernot J. Müller
Keyword(s):  
Control Unit ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Output Loss

While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3–4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss.

scholarly journals When is a Match Sufficient? A Score-based Balance Metric for the Synthetic Control Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-228
Author(s):  
Layla Parast ◽  
Priscillia Hunt ◽  
Beth Ann Griffin ◽  
David Powell
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Treated Group ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn some applications, researchers using the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the effect of a policy may struggle to determine whether they have identified a “good match” between the control group and treated group. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of the mean and maximum Absolute Standardized Mean Difference (ASMD) as a test of balance between a synthetic control unit and treated unit, and provide guidance on what constitutes a poor fit when using a synthetic control. We explore and compare other potential metrics using a simulation study. We provide an application of our proposed balance metric to the 2013 Los Angeles (LA) Firearm Study [9]. Using Uniform Crime Report data, we apply the SCM to obtain a counterfactual for the LA firearm-related crime rate based on a weighted combination of control units in a donor pool of cities. We use this counterfactual to estimate the effect of the LA Firearm Study intervention and explore the impact of changing the donor pool and pre-intervention duration period on resulting matches and estimated effects. We demonstrate how decision-making about the quality of a synthetic control can be improved by using ASMD. The mean and max ASMD clearly differentiate between poor matches and good matches. Researchers need better guidance on what is a meaningful imbalance between synthetic control and treated groups. In addition to the use of gap plots, the proposed balance metric can provide an objective way of determining fit.

scholarly journals The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment*

2019 ◽  
Vol 129 (623) ◽  
pp. 2722-2744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Born ◽  
Gernot J Müller ◽  
Moritz Schularick ◽  
Petr Sedláček
Keyword(s):  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Economic Nationalism ◽  
Output Loss ◽  
Structural Time Series ◽  
Time Series Estimation ◽  
Series Estimation ◽  
Synthetic Control Methods ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Unexpected Outcome

Abstract Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods, we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy.

scholarly journals Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions: Sweden as a Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julius J. Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Carbon Taxes ◽  
Comparable Group ◽  
Elasticity Of Demand ◽  
Quasi Experimental

This quasi-experimental study is the first to find a significant causal effect of carbon taxes on emissions, empirically analyzing the implementation of a carbon tax and a value-added tax on transport fuel in Sweden. After implementation, carbon dioxide emissions from transport declined almost 11 percent, with the largest share due to the carbon tax alone, relative to a synthetic control unit constructed from a comparable group of OECD countries. Furthermore, the carbon tax elasticity of demand for gasoline is three times larger than the price elasticity. Policy evaluations of carbon taxes, using price elasticities to simulate emission reductions, may thus significantly underestimate their true effect. (JEL H23, L91, Q54, Q58)

scholarly journals The effect of reduced unemployment duration on the unemployment rate: a Synthetic Control Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-73
Author(s):  
Luzius Stricker ◽  
Moreno Baruffini
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of the fourth partial revision of the law of unemployment insurance (AVIG) on unemployment dynamics in Switzerland at a cantonal level. The authors apply the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), a matching method for comparative case studies. A counterfactual analysis of the cases studied is performed by combining a control group of several untreated units, which provides a better comparison to the treatment group than a single unit. The control unit is designed as a weighted average of the available cantons in the donor pool, taking into account the similarities between the chosen controls and the treated unit. Once policy changes are controlled, the results suggest a significant effect on the unemployment rate at a cantonal level: the reform had a discernible impact on lowering the unemployment rate in the Italian- and French-speaking cantons in Switzerland.

scholarly journals Compared with what? Estimating the effects of injury prevention policies using the synthetic control method

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. i60-i66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Bonander
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Opioid Overdose ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Weighted Combination

IntroductionThis paper discusses the application of the synthetic control method to injury-related interventions using aggregate data from public information systems. The method selects and determines the optimal control unit in the data by minimising the difference between the pre-intervention outcomes in one treated unit (eg, a state) and a weighted combination of potential control units.MethodI demonstrate the synthetic control method by an application to Florida’s post-2010 policy and law enforcement initiatives aimed at bringing down opioid overdose deaths. Using opioid-related mortality data for a panel of 46 states observed from 1999 to 2015, the analysis suggests that a weighted combination of Maine (46.1%), Pennsylvania (34.4%), Nevada (5.4%), Washington (5.3%), West Virginia (4.3%) and Oklahoma (3.4%) best predicts the preintervention trajectory of opioid-related deaths in Florida between 1999 and 2009. Model specification and placebo tests, as well as an iterative leave-k-out sensitivity analysis are used as falsification tests.ResultsThe results indicate that the policies have decreased the incidence of opioid-related deaths in Florida by roughly 40% (or −6.19 deaths per 100.000 person-years) by 2015 compared with the evolution projected by the synthetic control unit. Sensitivity analyses yield an average estimate of −4.55 deaths per 100.000 person-years (2.5th percentile: −1.24, 97.5th percentile: −7.92). The estimated cumulative effect in terms of deaths prevented in the postperiod is 3705 (2.5th percentile: 1302, 97.5th percentile: 6412).DiscussionRecommendations for practice, future research and potential pitfalls, especially concerning low-count data, are discussed. Replication codes for Stata are provided.

Video-Enhanced Microscopy--Better Visibility of Plant Cell Structures

1982 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 182-185
Author(s):  
N.S. Allen ◽  
R.D. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Diffraction Pattern ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Numerical Aperture ◽  
Gain Control ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Camera Control ◽  
Variable Gain ◽  
Contrast Method ◽  
Fine Detail ◽  
Cell Structures

Various methods of video-enhanced microscopy combine TV cameras with light microscopes creating images with improved resolution, contrast and visibility of fine detail, which can be recorded rapidly and relatively inexpensively. The AVEC (Allen Video-enhanced Contrast) method avoids polarizing rectifiers, since the microscope is operated at retardations of λ/9- λ/4, where no anomaly is seen in the Airy diffraction pattern. The iris diaphram is opened fully to match the numerical aperture of the condenser to that of the objective. Under these conditions, no image can be realized either by eye or photographically. Yet the image becomes visible using the Hamamatsu C-1000-01 binary camera, if the camera control unit is equipped with variable gain control and an offset knob (which sets a clamp voltage of a D.C. restoration circuit). The theoretical basis for these improvements has been described.

Using Personal Cell Phones for Ecological Momentary Assessment

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Kuntsche ◽  
Florian Labhart
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Ecological Momentary Assessment ◽  
Communication Systems ◽  
Cell Phones ◽  
Personal Digital Assistants ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Standard Data ◽  
Ecological Momentary ◽  
Momentary Assessment

Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) is a way of collecting data in people’s natural environments in real time and has become very popular in social and health sciences. The emergence of personal digital assistants has led to more complex and sophisticated EMA protocols but has also highlighted some important drawbacks. Modern cell phones combine the functionalities of advanced communication systems with those of a handheld computer and offer various additional features to capture and record sound, pictures, locations, and movements. Moreover, most people own a cell phone, are familiar with the different functions, and always carry it with them. This paper describes ways in which cell phones have been used for data collection purposes in the field of social sciences. This includes automated data capture techniques, for example, geolocation for the study of mobility patterns and the use of external sensors for remote health-monitoring research. The paper also describes cell phones as efficient and user-friendly tools for prompt manual data collection, that is, by asking participants to produce or to provide data. This can either be done by means of dedicated applications or by simply using the web browser. We conclude that cell phones offer a variety of advantages and have a great deal of potential for innovative research designs, suggesting they will be among the standard data collection devices for EMA in the coming years.

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