scholarly journals An entry risk assessment of African horse sickness virus into the controlled area of South Africa through the legal movement of equids

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0252117
Author(s):  
John D. Grewar ◽  
Johann L. Kotze ◽  
Beverly J. Parker ◽  
Lesley S. van Helden ◽  
Camilla T. Weyer
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
African Horse Sickness ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Local Municipality ◽  
Important Health ◽  
The Impact

South Africa is endemic for African horse sickness (AHS), an important health and trade-sensitive disease of equids. The country is zoned with movement control measures facilitating an AHS-free controlled area in the south-west. Our objective was to quantitatively establish the risk of entry of AHS virus into the AHS controlled area through the legal movement of horses. Outcomes were subcategorised to evaluate movement pathway, temporal, and spatial differences in risk. A ‘no-control’ scenario allowed for evaluation of the impact of control measures. Using 2019 movement and AHS case data, and country-wide census data, a stochastic model was developed establishing local municipality level entry risk of AHSV at monthly intervals. These were aggregated to annual probability of entry. Sensitivity analysis evaluated model variables on their impact on the conditional means of the probability of entry. The median monthly probability of entry of AHSV into the controlled area of South Africa ranged from 0.75% (June) to 5.73% (February), with the annual median probability of entry estimated at 20.21% (95% CI: 15.89%-28.89%). The annual risk of AHSV entry compared well with the annual probability of introduction of AHS into the controlled area, which is ~10% based on the last 20 years of outbreak data. Direct non-quarantine movements made up most movements and accounted for most of the risk of entry. Spatial analysis showed that, even though reported case totals were zero throughout 2019 in the Western Cape, horses originating from this province still pose a risk that should not be ignored. Control measures decrease risk by a factor of 2.8 on an annual basis. Not only do the outcomes of this study inform domestic control, they can also be used for scientifically justified trade decision making, since in-country movement control forms a key component of export protocols.

scholarly journals The 2011 outbreak of African horse sickness in the African horse sickness controlled area in South Africa

2013 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
John D. Grewar ◽  
Camilla T. Weyer ◽  
Alan J. Guthrie ◽  
Pieter Koen ◽  
Sewellyn Davey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Morbidity Rate ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
African Horse Sickness ◽  
Free Zone

African horse sickness (AHS) is a controlled animal disease in South Africa, and as a result of the high mortality rates experienced, outbreaks in the AHS controlled area in the Western Cape Province have a significant impact on affected properties as well as on the exportation of live horses from the AHS free zone in metropolitan Cape Town. An outbreak of AHS serotype 1 occurred in the surveillance zone of the AHS controlled area of the Western Cape during the summer of 2011. The epicentre of the outbreak was the town of Mamre in the magisterial district of Malmesbury and the outbreak was confined to a defined containment zone within this area by movement control of all equids and a blanket vaccination campaign. A total of 73 cases of AHS were confirmed during this outbreak, which included four confirmed subclinical cases. The morbidity rate for the outbreak was 16%with a mortality rate of 14%and a case fatality rate of 88%. Outbreak disease surveillance relied on agent identification using polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assays, which is novel for an AHS outbreak in South Africa. The source of this outbreak was never confirmed although it is believed to be associated with the illegal movement of an infected animal into the Mamre area. This detailed description of the outbreak provides a sound scientific basis to assist decision making in future AHS outbreaks in the AHS controlled area of South Africa and in countries where AHS is an exotic or emerging disease.

The impact of climate temperature on counts, recovery, and death rates due to SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neven Chetty ◽  
Bamise Adeleye ◽  
Abiola Olawale Ilori
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
Warm Climate ◽  
The South ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Online Resource ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The impact of climate temperature on the counts (number of positive COVID-19 cases reported), recovery, and death rates of COVID-19 cases in South Africa's nine provinces was investigated. The data for confirmed cases of COVID-19 were collected for March 25 and June 30, 2020 (14 weeks) from South Africa's Government COVID-19 online resource, while the daily provincial climate temperatures were collected from the website of the South African Weather Service. Our result indicates that a higher or lower climate temperature does not prevent or delay the spread and death rates but shows significant positive impacts on the recovery rates of COVID-19 patients. Thus, it indicates that the climate temperature is unlikely to impose a strict limit on the spread of COVID-19. There is no correlation between the cases and death rates, an indicator that no particular temperature range is closely associated with a faster or slower death rate of COVID-19 patients. As evidence from our study, a warm climate temperature can only increase the recovery rate of COVID-19 patients, ultimately impacting the death and active case rates and freeing up resources quicker to enable health facilities to deal with those patients' climbing rates who need treatment. OBJECTIVE This study aims to investigate the impact of climate temperature variation on the counts, recovery, and death rates of COVID-19 cases in all South Africa's provinces. The findings were compared with those of countries with comparable climate temperature values. METHODS The data for confirmed cases of COVID-19 were collected for March 25 and June 30 (14 weeks) for South African provinces, including daily counts, death, and recovery rates. The dates were grouped into two, wherein weeks 1-5 represent the periods of total lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa. Weeks 6-14 are periods where the lockdown was eased to various levels 4 and 3. The daily information of COVID-19 count, death, and recovery was obtained from South Africa's Government COVID-19 online resource (https://sacoronavirus.co.za). Daily provincial climate temperatures were collected from the website of the South African Weather Service (https://www.weathersa.co.za). The provinces of South Africa are Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Northern Cape, Limpopo, Northwest, Mpumalanga, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape, and Gauteng. Weekly consideration was given to the daily climate temperature (average minimum and maximum). The recorded values were considered, respectively, to be in the ratio of death-to-count (D/C) and recovery-to-count (R/C). Descriptive statistics were performed for all the data collected for this study. The analyses were performed using the Person’s bivariate correlation to analyze the association between climate temperature, death-to-count, and recovery-to-count ratios of COVID-19. RESULTS The results showed that higher climate temperatures aren't essential to avoid the COVID-19 from being spread. The present results conform to the reports that suggested that COVID-19 is unlike the seasonal flu, which does dissipate as the climate temperature rises [17]. Accordingly, the ratio of counts and death-to-count cannot be concluded to be influenced by variations in the climate temperatures within the study areas. CONCLUSIONS The study investigates the impact of climate temperature on the counts, recovery, and death rates of COVID-19 cases in all South Africa's provinces. The findings were compared with those of countries with comparable climate temperatures as South Africa. Our result indicates that a higher or lower climate temperature does not prevent or delay the spread and death rates but shows significant positive impacts on the recovery rates of COVID-19 patients. Warm climate temperatures seem not to restrict the spread of the COVID-19 as the count rate was substantial at every climate temperatures. Thus, it indicates that the climate temperature is unlikely to impose a strict limit on the spread of COVID-19. There is no correlation between the cases and death rates, an indicator that there is no particular temperature range of the climatic conditions closely associated with a faster or slower death rate of COVID-19 patients. However, other shortcomings in this study's process should not be ignored. Some other factors may have contributed to recovery rates, such as the South African government's timely intervention to announce a national lockout at the early stage of the outbreak, the availability of intensive medical care, and social distancing effects. Nevertheless, this study shows that a warm climate temperature can only help COVID-19 patients recover more quickly, thereby having huge impacts on the death and active case rates.

scholarly journals The impact of family physician supply on district health system performance, clinical processes and clinical outcomes in the Western Cape Province, South Africa (2011–2014)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rekai L. Chinhoyi ◽  
Moleen Zunza ◽  
Klaus B. Von Pressentin
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Health System ◽  
Family Physician ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Health System Performance ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
Western Cape Province ◽  
District Health ◽  
District Health System ◽  
The Impact

Background: A revised family physician (FP) training programme was introduced in South Africa in 2007. A baseline assessment (2011) of the impact of FP supply on district health system performance was performed within the Western Cape Province, South Africa. The impact of an increased FP supply within this province required re-evaluation.Aim: To assess the impact of FP supply on indicators of district health system performance, clinical processes and clinical outcomes in the Western Cape Province. The objectives were to determine the impact of FPs, nurses, medical officers (MOs) and other specialists.Setting: The study sample included all five rural districts and eight urban subdistricts of the Western Cape Province.Methods: A secondary analysis was performed on routinely collected data from the Western Cape Department of Health from 01 March 2011 until 30 April 2014.Results: The FP supply did not significantly impact the indicators analysed. The supply of nurses and MOs had an impact on some of the indicators analysed.Conclusion: This study did not replicate the positive associations between an increase in FP supply and improved health indicators, as described previously for high-income country settings. The impact of FP supply on clinical processes, health system performance and outcome indicators in the Western Cape Province was not statistically significant. Future re-evaluation is recommended to allow for more time and an increase in FP supply.

scholarly journals The African swine fever control zone in South Africa and its current relevance

2016 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Noluvuyo R. Magadla ◽  
Wilna Vosloo ◽  
Livio Heath ◽  
Bruce Gummow
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Boundary Line ◽  
Control Line ◽  
Control Zone ◽  
Ornithodoros Moubata ◽  
The Impact

African swine fever (ASF) has been reported in South Africa since the early 20th century. The disease has been controlled and confined to northern South Africa over the past 80 years by means of a well-defined boundary line, with strict control measures and movement restrictions north of this line. In 2012, the first outbreak of ASF outside the ASF control zone since 1996 occurred. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current relevance of the ASF control line as a demarcation line between endemic ASF (north) areas and ASF-free (south) area and to determine whether there was a need to realign its trajectory, given the recent outbreaks of ASF, global climate changes and urban development since the line’s inception. A study of ASF determinants was conducted in an area 20 km north and 20 km south of the ASF control line, in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West and Gauteng provinces between May 2008 and September 2012. The study confirmed that warthogs, warthog burrows and the soft tick reservoir, Ornithodoros moubata, are present south of the ASF control line, but no virus or viral DNA was detected in these ticks. There appears to be an increasing trend in the diurnal maximum temperature and a decrease in humidity along the line, but the impact of these changes is uncertain. No discernible changes in minimum temperatures and average rainfall along the disease control line were observed between 1992 and 2014. Even though the reservoirs were found south of the ASF boundary line, the study concluded that there was no need to realign the trajectory of the ASF disease control line, with the exception of Limpopo Province. However, the provincial surveillance programmes for the reservoir, vector and ASF virus south of this line needs to be maintained and intensified as changing farming practices may favour the spread of ASF virus beyond the control line.Keywords: African swine fever; warthog burrow; Ornithodoros moubata;control line

scholarly journals The Relationship between Learning Orientation and the Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 232-240
Author(s):  
Evelyn Motsepe ◽  
Olawale Fatoki
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Learning Orientation ◽  
Mpumalanga Province ◽  
Performance Variables ◽  
Data Collection Process ◽  
Local Municipality ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
The Impact

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are an important vehicle in income re-distribution, poverty alleviation, employment creation and contribute to the gross domestic product of South Africa. However, SMEs in South Africa suffer from a weak level of performance and a high failure rate. The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact of learning orientation on the performance of SMEs. A quantitative approach was used, while a self-administered questionnaire was also employed during data collection process. A three- section questionnaire covering demographic information, learning orientation variables and performance variables was prepared and distributed randomly to a selected sample of 390 SME owners in Msukaligwa Local Municipality in Mpumalanga Province of South Africa. A total of 181 questionnaires were returned. Descriptive statistics, factor analysis, correlation and regression analysis were used for data analysis. The Cronbach’s alpha was used to measure reliability. The results of the study revealed a significant positive relationship between learning orientation and the performance of SMEs. Recommendations to improve the learning orientation of SMEs are suggested.

scholarly journals When people do not ‘Zol’: Reduced emergency centre attendance of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease during coronavirus disease 2019 lockdown with the accompanying tobacco sales ban in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Piero Saieva ◽  
Louis S. Jenkins
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Prevalence Rate ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
Western Cape Province ◽  
Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Tract Infections ◽  
The Impact

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread throughout the world, with devastating effects of the virus as well as the repercussions of the resulting ‘lockdowns’. South Africa went into a national lockdown in March 2020 to mitigate the impact of the virus. This included a ban on the sales of tobacco and electronic cigarette products. The ban has been a highly contentious issue in South Africa, discussed worldwide, which has drawn many criticisms. The prevalence rate of smoking in South Africa was around 21.5%, with the Western Cape province having a prevalence rate of 39%. We compared the number of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) presentations at a large regional referral hospital in the Western Cape province from January to August 2019 with the same period in 2020. Electronic emergency centre data showed a reduction of 69.28% in COPD presentations. To control for some confounders for the same period, we also reviewed patients presenting with urinary tract infections, which showed only a 30.60% reduction. This notable reduction in COPD presentations reduced service pressure of emergency centre and most likely benefitted patients’ health. Further research and policies are needed to ensure ongoing reduction in the prevalence of smoking.

scholarly journals Assessing the potential of plains zebra to maintain African horse sickness in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibaud Porphyre ◽  
John D. Grewar
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Western Cape ◽  
African Horse Sickness ◽  
Western Cape Province ◽  
Tariff Barrier ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Stochastic Vector ◽  
Reservoir Hosts ◽  
Plains Zebra

AbstractAfrican horse sickness (AHS) is a disease of equids that results in a non-tariff barrier to the trade of live equids from affected countries. AHS is endemic in South Africa except for a controlled area in the Western Cape Province (WCP) where sporadic outbreaks have occurred in the past 2 decades. There is potential that the presence of zebra populations, thought to be the natural reservoir hosts for AHS, in the WCP could maintain AHS virus circulation in the area and act as a year-round source of infection for horses. However, it remains unclear whether the epidemiology or the ecological conditions present in the WCP would enable persistent circulation of AHS in the local zebra populations.Here we developed a hybrid deterministic-stochastic vector-host compartmental model of AHS transmission in plains zebra (Equus quagga), where host populations are age- and sex-structured and for which population and AHS transmission dynamics are modulated by rainfall and temperature conditions. Using this model, we showed that populations of plains zebra present in the WCP are not sufficiently large for AHS introduction events to become endemic and that coastal populations of zebra need to be >2500 individuals for AHS to persist >2 years, even if zebras are infectious for more than 50 days. AHS cannot become endemic in the coastal population of the WCP unless the zebra population involves at least 50,000 individuals. Finally, inland populations of plains zebra in the WCP may represent a risk for AHS to persist but would require populations of at least 500 zebras or show unrealistic duration of infectiousness for AHS introduction events to become endemic.Our results provide evidence that the risk of AHS persistence from a single introduction event in a given plains zebra population in the WCP is extremely low and it is unlikely to represent a long-term source of infection for local horses.

Community Participation in Mahikeng Local Municipality: Power Relations Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 446-456
Author(s):  
Mandla Mfundo Masuku ◽  
Mokgadi Patience Molope
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Public Participation ◽  
Community Participation ◽  
Power Relations ◽  
Local Governance ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Local Municipality ◽  
Constitutional Right ◽  
The Impact

In South Africa, community members have the constitutional right to partake in local governance and the local municipal council has the constitutional mandate to facilitate community participation. Qualitative research was used to assess the impact of power relations on community participation in the Mahikeng Local Municipality. The study findings indicate that power differentials contributed to the abandonment of the legislative provisions in the Mahikeng Local Municipality in the North-West Province of South Africa. Among other things, this paper recommends finalisation of the draft public participation framework. The framework should clearly identify and define the roles of the community, elected councillors and traditional authorities. The paper recommends the development of a strategy that includes clear and comprehensive public participation guidelines, protocols and processes to facilitate implementation of the framework. In consultation with the community, a detailed community participation schedule must be developed, implemented and continuously monitored and evaluated.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document