scholarly journals Macroeconomic Immigration Determinants: an Analysis of ‘Pull’ Factors of International Migration to South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulugeta Dinbabo ◽  
◽  
Themba Nyasulu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Skilled Worker ◽  
Pull Factors

This research empirically examines the macroeconomic determinants of ‘pull’ factors of international migration in South Africa. Using the neoclassical economic model of international migration, an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression was run on time-series data from the World Bank data base for the period 1990-2012. Relevant data from the South African Department of Home Affairs’ Annual Reports were also used. GDP per capita, inflation rate, real interest rate, employment rate and public health expenditure were found to be the key determinants which entice migrants away from their countries and direct them to “better off” destinations. The country’s public education system, on the other hand, is not a significant attraction for foreign migrants. The study concludes that the South African government urgently needs to implement not only skilled worker-attractive immigration policies but also appropriate fiscal and monetary restructuring policies aimed at growing the economy and creating employment opportunities.

scholarly journals The relationship between βeta and stock returns in the JSE securities exchange in South Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 558-566
Author(s):  
Raphael Tabani Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study was is to examine the relationship between stock βeta and returns in the JSE Securities Exchange. If the model is applicable in its entirety or can explain the beta-stock returns relationship, it raises an important academic question, mainly, how should the South African financial market be viewed by investors and portfolio managers, given the political-social-economical classifications that South Africa finds itself in, sometimes referred to as developing, emerging or underdeveloped? The time-series data used was from Sharenet as well as from the South African Reserve Bank macro-economic time series data. The sample period consisted of 10 years of monthly time series data between January 2001 and December 2010. Regression analysis was applied using the conditional approach. When using the conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and cross-sectional regression analysis, the findings strongly supported the significant relationship between stock excess returns and βeta. However, the results do not provide strong evidence of a CAPM relation between risks and realized return trade-off in the South African financial markets. These results demonstrate that the South African financial markets are complex and financial tools, such as the CAPM can be used to explain complex financial phenomenon as in other developed markets, although complete reliance on the CAPM should be relied upon.

scholarly journals The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) To Domestic Employment Levels in South Africa: A Vector Autoregressive Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1(J)) ◽  
pp. 110-121
Author(s):  
Bongumusa Prince Makhoba, ◽  
Irrshad Kaseeram
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
South African ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

Several empirical works have yielded mixed and controversial results with regard to the effects of FDI on employment and economic growth. The primary focus of this study is to investigate the contribution of FDI to domestic employment levels in the context of the South African economy. The analyses of the study were carried out using the annual time series data from 1980 to 2015. The macroeconomic variables employed in the empirical investigation include employment, FDI, GDP, inflation, trade openness and unit labour costs. The study used secondary data from the South African Reserve Bank and Statistics South Africa database. The study estimated a Vector Autoregressive/ Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VAR/VECM) approach to conduct empirical analysis. However, the study also employed single equation estimation techniques, including the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) models as supporting tools to verify the VAR/VECM results. This study provides strong evidence of a significant negative relationship between FDI and employment levels in the South African economy. Empirical analysis of the study suggests that the effect of economic growth on employment is highly positive and significant in South Africa’s economy. The study recommends that policymakers ought to invest more in productive sectors that aim to promote economic growth and development to boost employment opportunities in South Africa.

scholarly journals How applicable is export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses to South African economy?

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Ntebogang Dinah Moroke ◽  
Molebogeng Manoto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Time Series ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

This paper investigated exports, imports and the economic growth nexus in the context of South Africa. The paper sets out to examine if long-run and causal relationships exist between these variables. Quarterly time series data ranging between 1998 and 2013 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec databases was employed. Initial data analysis proved that the variables are integrated at their levels. The results further indicated that exports, imports and economic growth are co-integrated, confirming an existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causal results were shown running from exports and imports to GDP and from imports to exports, validating export-led and import-led growth hypotheses in South Africa. A significant causality running from imports to exports, suggests that South Africa imported finished goods in excess. If this is not avoided, lots of problems could be caused. A suggestion was made to avoid such problematic issues as they may lead to replaced domestic output and displacement of employees. Another dreadful ramification may be an adverse effect on the economy which may further be experienced in the long-run.

scholarly journals The Impact of Productivity, Investment and Real Wages on Employment Absorption Rate in South Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Habanabakize ◽  
Daniel Francois Meyer ◽  
Judit Oláh
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Absorption Rate ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
The Impact

Many developing countries are facing high levels of unemployment and most people who are employed are poorly remunerated due to low skills and productivity levels. Although jobs are important, a productive job is even more important, not only for employees, but also for employers. South Africa, being a developing country, is also facing the challenge of dramatically high levels of unemployment. This study’s aim was to examine both the short- and long-term impacts of real wages, labour productivity and investment spending on employment absorption rates in South Africa. To establish the existing relationship between variables, the study applied several econometric approaches, such as an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, error correction model (ECM) and a Toda–Yamamoto causality analysis on quarterly time series data from 1995Q1 to 2019Q1. The results revealed the existence of both short- and long-run relationships among the variables. While a positive relationship was found between employment absorption, investment spending and labour productivity, it was found that real wages negatively impact on long-run employment absorption rates. Additionally, the short-run analysis indicated that the lagged employment absorption rate influences the current rate of employment. Furthermore, the causality tests indicated that a bi-directional causal relationship exists between employment absorption and investment spending; and a uni-directional relationship between employment and both real wages and labour productivity. Based on the findings, the study recommends increments of investment spending and labour productivity that enables the South African economy to carry out more activities that would require more workers, thereby improving the employment absorption rate. The fact that labour productivity positively impacts the employment absorption rate infers the requirement for quality and skilled workers to be absorbed in the South African labour market. Therefore, labour skills improvements appear to be a prerequisite for productivity enhancement and job creation.

scholarly journals The impact of economic growth on unemployment in South Africa: 1994 – 2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 699-707
Author(s):  
Handson Banda ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

One of the most pressing problems facing the South African economy is unemployment, which has been erratic over the past few years. This study examined the impact of economic growth on unemployment, using quarterly time series data for South Africa for the period 1994 to 2012.Johansen Co-integration reflected that there is stable and one significant long run relationship between unemployment and the explanatory variables that is economic growth (GDP), budget deficit (BUG), real effective exchange rate (REER) and labour productivity (LP). The study utilized Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effects of macroeconomic variables thus REER, LP, GDP and BUG on unemployment in South Africa. The results of VECM indicated that LP has a negative long run impact on unemployment whilst GDP, BUG and REER have positive impact. The study resulted in the following policy recommendation: South African government should re-direct its spending towards activities that directly and indirectly promote creation of employment and decent jobs; a conducive environment and flexible labour market policies or legislations without impediments to employment creation should be created; and lastly government should prioritise industries that promote labour intensive. All this will help in absorbing large pools of the unemployed population thereby reducing unemployment in South Africa.

scholarly journals IV.—On the Correlation of the Palæozoio Rocks of South Africa

1902 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 163-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walcot Gibson
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
The South ◽  
Eastern Province ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Table Mountain ◽  
Rock Formations ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Recent Account

The publication of the Annual Reports for 1898 and 1899 of the Cape Geological Commission, coupled with the recent account of the geology of the Transvaal Colony by Dr. Molengraaff, and of which a short abstract has appeared in this Magazine, adds considerably to the knowledge of South African geology. The succession of the rock formations at the Cape has been constantly used as a basis of classification for the rock systems south of the Zambesi. In his recent paper Dr. Molengraaff correlates the formations of the Transvaal Colony with those met with in the south-eastern provinces of Cape Colony, and emphasizes the fact that the three stages of the Pretoria, Dolomite, and Black Reef series of the Transvaal Colony may be compared with the Witteberg, Bokkeveld, and Table Mountain Sandstone series of the Cape. It may therefore be of service to show on what grounds this supposed correlation is based. To do this the succession at the Cape of the formations below the Beaufort Beds in the typical region of the south-eastern province will first be given.

scholarly journals Commodity prices and stock market performance in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 370-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Itumeleng Pleasure Mongale ◽  
Joel Hinaunye Eita
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

As an export based economy, commodity prices and stock market performances are always a course for concern in the South African economy. This paper investigates the effects of the commodity prices and selected macroeconomic variables on stock market performance. The paper uses quarterly time series data and the estimation covers the period 1994 to 2013. Using Engle-Granger two steps econometric technique, the underlying series are tested for univariate characteristics of the variables unit root by employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test statistics. The findings show that an increase in commodity prices is associated with an increase in stock market performance and there is a positive association between stock market and macroeconomic such as money supply and exchange rate in South Africa.

scholarly journals Foreign direct investment risk implication on employment in an emerging economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4-1) ◽  
pp. 148-152
Author(s):  
Collins C Ngwakwe
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Host Country ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Unexpected Result

This paper analysed the employment risk-effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in South Africa for the periods 1991 to 2014. The paper is an attempt to contribute to the growing debate on the role of FDI in economic development, but specifically on employment. The paper applied a quantitative method and used time series data from the World Bank development indicators. The ordinary least square (OLS) regression statistics was used to analyse the relationship between FDI and employment in South Africa for 1991 – 2014. Consistent with some previous research findings, results showed that during the period of study, FDI showed a negative relationship with employment – a growth in FDI had a negative effect on local employment by 1.29 percent. The paper thus highlights that if FDI does not received proper strategy, the host country may run the risk of not benefitting economically from FDI. This unexpected result can be attributed to some causes, which include inter alia reduction in domestic productivity because of FDI, the nature of FDI and the host country regulation of FDI. The paper suggests further research on the role of FDI on domestic productivity in South Africa

scholarly journals AN IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF COVID-19 ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 208-216
Author(s):  
Ephrem Habtemichael Redda ◽  
◽  
Jhalukpreya Surujlal ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
South African ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
The South ◽  
Quantitative Analyses ◽  
The Government

The purpose of this article is to provide an impact assessment of Covid-19 on the South African automotive industry. The study is exploratory in nature and employs descriptive quantitative analyses. Monthly time series data (01/2000-01/2021) available from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) were used for analysis and to achieve the objectives of the study. The results indicate that since the beginning of March 2020, all categories started to show significant contraction, and the worst negative growth was observed in April at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic regulations imposed by the government. Measured in nominal values at current prices and compared on a year-on-year (YOY) basis, the largest negative annual growth rate (contraction) was in used vehicle sales, followed by new vehicle sales, income from sales of accessories, workshop income, fuel sales, and convenient store sales. The overall YOY actual motor trade sales contracted by a massive 84%, and when seasonally adjusted, by 81%. Led by used vehicle sales, the automotive industry was able to recover rather quickly as the restrictions imposed by the government were eased from May 2020 onwards. However, the overall performance of the industry is still in a worse state when compared to the preceding year, 2019. Looking forward, the gradual increase in overall motor trade sales suggests a positive trend of growth.

scholarly journals Cointegration and stock market interdependence: Evidence from South Africa, India and the USA

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohanasundaram Thangamuthu ◽  
Karthikeyan Parthasarathy
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
South African ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of this study is to explore the nature of the association and the possible existence of a shortrun and long-run relationship between the stock-market indices of South Africa, India and the USA. The idea behind this combination is to know how the stock markets of these three prominent countries are related to each other. The study employs monthly data from the stock indices, namely JALSH (South Africa), NIFTY (India) and NASDAQ (USA) composite from April 2004 to March 2014. After testing for the normality of the data distribution and the stationarity of the time series data, this paper discovered a strong correlation between the stock market indices of South Africa, India and the USA. The correlation among the stock markets is high, particularly between South Africa and India. In addition, the paper attempts to discover the presence of any predictive ability among these markets by applying the Granger causality test. The result indicates that the NASDAQ index has no predictive ability as far as the JALSH and NIFTY indices are concerned. However, the JALSH index has a predictive ability on the NIFTY index. After testing the Granger cause relationship, the existence of a long-run and short-run relationship is tested. The long-run relationships among the stock market indices are analysed, following the Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration approach. The result suggests the absence of a long-run relationship among the three stock market indices. Short-run relationship is investigated with the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, and the outcome obtained shows that both the USA and the South African stock markets are predicted only by their own past lags. However, the Indian stock market is seen to be a function of its own past lags and the past lags of the South African stock index. 

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