scholarly journals AN IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF COVID-19 ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 208-216
Author(s):  
Ephrem Habtemichael Redda ◽  
◽  
Jhalukpreya Surujlal ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
South African ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
The South ◽  
Quantitative Analyses ◽  
The Government

The purpose of this article is to provide an impact assessment of Covid-19 on the South African automotive industry. The study is exploratory in nature and employs descriptive quantitative analyses. Monthly time series data (01/2000-01/2021) available from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) were used for analysis and to achieve the objectives of the study. The results indicate that since the beginning of March 2020, all categories started to show significant contraction, and the worst negative growth was observed in April at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic regulations imposed by the government. Measured in nominal values at current prices and compared on a year-on-year (YOY) basis, the largest negative annual growth rate (contraction) was in used vehicle sales, followed by new vehicle sales, income from sales of accessories, workshop income, fuel sales, and convenient store sales. The overall YOY actual motor trade sales contracted by a massive 84%, and when seasonally adjusted, by 81%. Led by used vehicle sales, the automotive industry was able to recover rather quickly as the restrictions imposed by the government were eased from May 2020 onwards. However, the overall performance of the industry is still in a worse state when compared to the preceding year, 2019. Looking forward, the gradual increase in overall motor trade sales suggests a positive trend of growth.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Immigration Determinants: an Analysis of ‘Pull’ Factors of International Migration to South Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulugeta Dinbabo ◽  
◽  
Themba Nyasulu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Skilled Worker ◽  
Pull Factors

This research empirically examines the macroeconomic determinants of ‘pull’ factors of international migration in South Africa. Using the neoclassical economic model of international migration, an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression was run on time-series data from the World Bank data base for the period 1990-2012. Relevant data from the South African Department of Home Affairs’ Annual Reports were also used. GDP per capita, inflation rate, real interest rate, employment rate and public health expenditure were found to be the key determinants which entice migrants away from their countries and direct them to “better off” destinations. The country’s public education system, on the other hand, is not a significant attraction for foreign migrants. The study concludes that the South African government urgently needs to implement not only skilled worker-attractive immigration policies but also appropriate fiscal and monetary restructuring policies aimed at growing the economy and creating employment opportunities.

scholarly journals The relationship between βeta and stock returns in the JSE securities exchange in South Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 558-566
Author(s):  
Raphael Tabani Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study was is to examine the relationship between stock βeta and returns in the JSE Securities Exchange. If the model is applicable in its entirety or can explain the beta-stock returns relationship, it raises an important academic question, mainly, how should the South African financial market be viewed by investors and portfolio managers, given the political-social-economical classifications that South Africa finds itself in, sometimes referred to as developing, emerging or underdeveloped? The time-series data used was from Sharenet as well as from the South African Reserve Bank macro-economic time series data. The sample period consisted of 10 years of monthly time series data between January 2001 and December 2010. Regression analysis was applied using the conditional approach. When using the conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and cross-sectional regression analysis, the findings strongly supported the significant relationship between stock excess returns and βeta. However, the results do not provide strong evidence of a CAPM relation between risks and realized return trade-off in the South African financial markets. These results demonstrate that the South African financial markets are complex and financial tools, such as the CAPM can be used to explain complex financial phenomenon as in other developed markets, although complete reliance on the CAPM should be relied upon.

scholarly journals An Optimal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model for Forecasting the South African Inflation Volatility

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4(J)) ◽  
pp. 134-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ntebogang Dinah Moroke
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Volatility Clustering ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Forecasting Inflation

Abstract: In most cases, financial variables are explained by leptokurtic distribution and often fail the assumption of normal distribution. This paper sought to explore the robustness of GARCH–type models in forecasting inflation volatility using quarterly time series data spanning 2002 to 2014. The data was sourced from the South African Reserve Bank database. SAS version 9.3 was used to generate the results. The initial analyses of data confirmed non-linearity, hereroscedasticity and non-stationarity in the series. Differencing was imposed in a log transformed series to induce stationarity. Further findings confirmed that 𝐴𝑅 (1)_𝐼𝐺𝐴𝑅𝐶𝐻 (1, 1)model suggested a high degree persistent in the conditional volatility of the series. However, the𝐴𝑅 (1)_𝐸𝐺𝐴𝑅𝐶𝐻 (2, 1)model was found to be more robust in forecasting volatility effects than the 𝐴𝑅 (1)_𝐼𝐺𝐴𝑅𝐶𝐻 (1, 1) and 𝐴𝑅 (1)_𝐺𝐽𝑅 − 𝐺𝐴𝑅𝐶𝐻 (2, 1)models. This model confirmed that inflation rates in South Africa exhibits the stylised characteristics such as volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and asymmetry effects. These findings may be very useful to the industry and scholars who wish to apply models that capture heteroscedastic and non-linear errors. The findings may also benefit policy makers and may be referred to when embarking on strategies in-line with inflation rate.

Transport infrastructure of the Rostov Oblast: Problems and prospects for development in the context of national projects implementation

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Patrakeeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Rostov Oblast ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The paper considers national projects in the field of transport infrastructure, i.e. Safe and High-quality Roads and Comprehensive Plan for Modernization and Expansion of Trunk Infrastructure, and the specifics of their implementation in the Rostov Oblast. Objectives. The aim is to conduct a statistical assessment of the impact of transport infrastructure on the region’s economic performance and define prospects for and risks of the implementation of national infrastructure projects in conditions of a shrinking economy. Methods. I use available statistics and apply methods and approaches with time-series data, namely stationarity and cointegration tests, vector autoregression models. Results. The level of economic development has an impact on transport infrastructure in the short run. However, the mutual influence has not been statistically confirmed. The paper revealed that investments in the sphere of transport reduce risk of accidents on the roads of the Rostov Oblast. Improving the quality of roads with high traffic flow by reducing investments in the maintenance of subsidiary roads enables to decrease accident rate on the whole. Conclusions. In conditions of economy shrinking caused by the complex epidemiological situation and measures aimed at minimizing the spread of coronavirus, it is crucial to create a solid foundation for further economic recovery. At the government level, it is decided to continue implementing national projects as significant tools for recovery growth.

scholarly journals Kerk en owerheid binne ’n regstaat. Die profetiese roeping van die kerk met betrekking tot die Suid-Afrikaanse owerheid

2000 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Vorster ◽  
J.H. Van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
Theoretical Argument ◽  
The South ◽  
African Government ◽  
Constitutional State ◽  
African Context ◽  
The Government ◽  
Just Society ◽  
The Church

Church and government within a constitutional state. The prophetic calling of the church towards the South-African government With the transition to a new political dispensation in South Africa, a constitutional state has been established. A typical characteristic of this new dispensation is that the government remains neutral while the executive powers are subject to the Bill of Human Rights. The question of how the church can realize its prophetic task towards the government within the context of a constitutional state is highlighted in this article. The central theoretical argument is that a constitutional state that acknowledges fundamental rights provides an excellent opportunity for the church to fulfil its prophetic calling within the South African context. The church can contribute to a just society by prophetic testimony within the perspective of the kingdom of God.

scholarly journals Hypothesizing directional causality between the governance indicators and economic growth: the case of Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Naim Azimi ◽  
Mohammad Musa Shafiq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
The Government

AbstractThis paper examines the causal relationship between governance indicators and economic growth in Afghanistan. We use a set of quarterly time series data from 2003Q1 to 2018Q4 to test our hypothesis. Following Toda and Yamamoto’s (J Econom 66(1–2):225–250, 1995. 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8) vector autoregressive model and the modified Wald test, our empirical results show a unidirectional causality between the government effectiveness, rule of law, and the economic growth. Our findings exhibit significant causal relationships running from economic growth to the eradication of corruption, the establishment of the rule of law, quality of regulatory measures, government effectiveness, and political stability. More interestingly, we support the significant multidimensional causality hypothesis among the governance indicators. Overall, our findings not only reveal causality between economic growth and governance indicators, but they also show interdependencies among the governance indicators.

The South African public service wage bill deadlock in 2021: living on the edge

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marianne Matthee ◽  
Albert Wöcke
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
South African ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Government

Subject area Macro-Economics. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and MBA. Case overview The COVID 19 pandemic-related restrictions devastated South Africa’s economy in 2020 and although the restrictions were generally less damaging than in 2020, the government had to budget for vaccinations and rebuild the economy. Public service unions had just announced that they were demanding an increase of 4% above inflation for their members and that they were preparing for a strike. They were bitter about the fact that the South African Government had withdrawn from the last year of a three-year wage agreement in February 2020 and their members had not received an increase for the two years. These demands and Finance Minister Mboweni’s response to them had to consider the structural and cyclical impact on the fiscus and economy. Expected learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: understand the general objectives of fiscal policy and stakeholders’ interests; understand the tradeoffs in fiscal policy and the implications of taking a position; and make recommendations based on reasoned judgements about those recommendations. Complexity academic level Undergraduate and MBA level courses on Macro Economics. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 10: Public Sector Management.

'Papieren' voor de toekomst

1970 ◽  
Vol 60 ◽  
pp. 43-52
Author(s):  
Gustaaf Janssens
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Truth And Reconciliation Commission ◽  
The South ◽  
Reconciliation Commission ◽  
Cultural Perception ◽  
Truth And Reconciliation ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
Archival Documents ◽  
The Government

A purely cultural perception of records and archives is one-sided andincomplete. Records and archival documents are necessary to confirm therights and the obligations of both the government and the citizens. "Therecords are crucial to hold us accountable", says archbishop D. Tutu, formerpresident of the South African 'Truth and Reconciliation Commission'. Forthis reason, the government should organize the archives in such a way thatarchival services can fulfil their task as guardians of society's memorie.Citizens' rights and archives have a close relationship.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

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