QUANTILE PROBABILITY PREDICTIONS: A DEMONSTRATIVE PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF FORECASTS OF US COVID-19 DEATHS

An analytical framework is presented for the evaluation of quantile probability forecasts. It is demonstrated using weekly quantile forecasts of changes in the number of US COVID-19 deaths. Empirical quantiles are derived using the assumption that daily changes in a variable follow a normal distribution with time varying means and standard deviations, which can be assumed constant over short horizons such as one week. These empirical quantiles are used to evaluate quantile forecasts using the Mean Squared Quantile Score (MSQS), which, in turn, is decomposed into sub-components involving bias, resolution and error variation to identify specific aspects of performance, which highlight the strengths and weaknesses of forecasts. The framework is then extended to test if performance enhancement can be achieved by combining diverse forecasts from different sources. The demonstration illustrates that the technique can effectively evaluate quantile forecasting performance based on a limited number of data points, which is crucial in emergency situations such as forecasting pandemic behavior. It also shows that combining the predictions with quantile probability forecasts generated from an Autoregressive Order One, AR(1) model provided substantially improved performance. The implications of these findings are discussed, suggestions are offered for future research and potential limitations are considered.

AN EXPLORATION OF THE PROGRESSION POLICY AND ITS EF

This article examines the Progression Policy and its effects on learner achievement in the Further Education and Training Phase (Grades 10 to 12) amongst five underperforming public secondary schools in Pinetown. Since the adoption of the Progression Policy, the pass rate noticeable declined between 2014 and 2016. Thus, the Progression Policy is used in this study as an analytical framework, whilst the qualitative research design was used to gather data. The faceto-face semi-structured interviews, as well as focus group discussions with educators and principals, served as data collection methods. This study emphasized challenges attributed to the implementation of the Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statement and the Progression Policy in the Pinetown District. The study further revealed that the South African education system, from the Foundation Phase level all the way up, is plagued by serious challenges. The identified challenges include a lack of parental support, learner absenteeism, learner indiscipline, learner demotivation, resource allocation, and teacher-learner ratios. The results also revealed that the socioeconomic environment contributes to a dysfunctional condition in schools, which has a negative influence on the teaching and learning experience amongst educators and learners. Thus, the study proposes the reconfiguration of the Progression Policy alongside practicable and relatable recommendations inconsonance to study.

SERVICE QUALITY AND CUSTOMER SATISFACTION EXPERIENCE AMONG SOUTH AFRICAN MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS CONSUMERS

Mobile networks have become the most utilized pathway of communication but very little information is available on customers’ experiences with respect to service quality and satisfaction. Through a survey, data was gathered from 1451 participants to examine customers’ experiences of service quality and satisfaction. The study investigated whether service quality and customer satisfaction experiences were different in respect of the mobile network operator used by the customer. This study is cross sectional by design and quantitative in nature. A self-administered questionnaire was used to gather primary data from mobile network users. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. For inferential statistics, the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) was used. The results revealed that the mobile network operator used by the customer, had a significant impact on service quality and customer satisfaction levels. This study contributes academically by indicating how South African consumers perceive mobile network service providers. Furthermore, the study identifies shortcomings and areas of strengths of South African mobile network operators with regards to service quality and customer satisfaction.

AN IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF COVID-19 ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

The purpose of this article is to provide an impact assessment of Covid-19 on the South African automotive industry. The study is exploratory in nature and employs descriptive quantitative analyses. Monthly time series data (01/2000-01/2021) available from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) were used for analysis and to achieve the objectives of the study. The results indicate that since the beginning of March 2020, all categories started to show significant contraction, and the worst negative growth was observed in April at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic regulations imposed by the government. Measured in nominal values at current prices and compared on a year-on-year (YOY) basis, the largest negative annual growth rate (contraction) was in used vehicle sales, followed by new vehicle sales, income from sales of accessories, workshop income, fuel sales, and convenient store sales. The overall YOY actual motor trade sales contracted by a massive 84%, and when seasonally adjusted, by 81%. Led by used vehicle sales, the automotive industry was able to recover rather quickly as the restrictions imposed by the government were eased from May 2020 onwards. However, the overall performance of the industry is still in a worse state when compared to the preceding year, 2019. Looking forward, the gradual increase in overall motor trade sales suggests a positive trend of growth.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DECISION-MAKING HEURISTICS AND PERCEIVED QUALITY OF LIFE

The purpose of this research is to provide some insights into relationship between decisionmaking heuristics and perceived quality of life. Using the purposive sampling technique, data collection was carried out, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, from June to October 2020, yielding a sample of 319 valid responses. To gain a better understanding of the relationship between decision-making heuristics and the perceived quality of life, we, primarily, use descriptive statistical analysis, chi-square test and probit regression model. The research findings have revealed positive association between all three decision-making heuristics, i.e. representativeness, anchoring, availability, and perceived quality of life. Furthermore, the group with above-average perceived quality of life have higher representativeness, anchoring, and availability scores comparing to the group with below-average perceived quality of life. These differences are statistically significant. Furthermore, out of three decision-making heuristics components, availability, or a heuristic whereby people make judgments about the likelihood of an event based on how easily a similar example comes to mind, seems to be the strongest predictor of the perceived quality of life. Memories that are easily recalled are often insufficient for estimating likelihood of occurring similar events again in the future. In that respect, availability may produce low-quality information in the decision making process. Ultimately, this may lead to bad decisions.

THE IMPACT OF TRANSACTIONAL LEADERSHIP AS A STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE IN PROJECT EXECUTION AT A MOBILE COMPANY IN THE GAZA STRIP, PALESTINE

Leadership is critical for the functioning of society and of any organization, and the effectiveness is incumbent on leader and follower congruence. The effectiveness of a leader is therefore inevitably contingent to the leader’s ability to develop a balance between the objectives of the followers, the leader and the organization. This is compounded by the factors that inform leader behavior, follower expectation and the tasks to be performed. Chief amongst these would be culture, religion, levels of follower education, and the tasks to be performed. The Gaza Strip is a heavily militarized, paternalistic and strongly religious environment, allowing for an environment that encourages transactional leadership. The research sought to establish the acceptability of transactional leadership at a large telecommunications organization in the Gaza Strip. The target population was employees of the organization and their perceptions about transactional leadership. The findings indicate a high acceptability of transactional leadership style by the employees of the organization.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES SINCE 1991

This paper discusses the impact of industrial policy on the development of the automotive industry in five post-Soviet countries since 1991 (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan). By using foreign trade and production statistics as well as qualitative data on automobile companies from business news, this paper highlights three different paths: success in post-2000 Russia and Uzbekistan, stagnation and struggle for survival in Belarus and Kazakhstan, and failure in pre-2000 Russia and Ukraine. The existence of an automotive industry before 1991 was not a factor in success because most pre-existing firms collapsed after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Instead, the growth of these post-Soviet automotive industries has essentially relied on the presence of global car makers. This research demonstrates that inward foreign direct investment and licensing agreements were fostered by the combination of protectionist policies that made importation uncompetitive and access of global firms to the large Russian market (both direct access and indirect access via a country with privileged access to Russia). This paper also highlights different strategies adopted by foreign firms: whereas the largest Western and Japanese companies invested directly in Russia, companies from China and Korea used Central Asia and Belarus as back doors to enter the Russian market.

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL PERCEPTION IN PURCHASE CHOICE

Time and space are thoroughly interlinked, not only in human perception, but in everyday life. While it may still be unclear where the time and distance perception originates and what function can be assigned to their relationship, the behavioral point of view demonstrates enough evidence of similar patterns. The aim of this research is to make another step in the direction of connecting those constructs and offer a research example with application. The objective of this research is to examine time and distance preferences in purchase situations where additional unit of time or distance saves respondent's money, and to offer a research example with application in consumer choice. Two sets of survey data of responses to hypothetical situations enable response examination. Descriptive statistical analysis is followed with the cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling and unfolding, and nonparametric tests. The results are discussed in terms of possible extension of the intertemporal choice terminology and findings to the spatio-temporal context. The findings indicate dominant susceptibility to discount amount, but also reveal similarity in responses involving the time and space distances at the similar construal level. Practical implications indicate possibility for application of space and time interchangeably in discount management, which might enable higher flexibility in the supply and decrease the customer clustering on the discount days.

SOCIAL DIALOGUE AND WORKING CONDITIONS: EVIDENCE FROM PERFETTI BANMETTELLE NIGERIA LIMITED AGBARA, OGUN STATE, NIGERIA

The increasing need for improved working conditions has made social dialogue expedient in organization. This study examined the effect of social dialogue on working conditions in the manufacturing industry. The study adopted the descriptive survey research design using Krejie and Morgan sample size determination formula, a sample size of one hundred and fifty-two (152) was derived. The copies of the questionnaire were administered with the help of some of the organization employees. One hundred and twenty-one (121) copies of the questionnaire were duly completed and thirty-one (31) were not returned. Three hypotheses were formulated and tested using inferential statistical tool. The result revealed that a significant relationship exists between negotiation, information sharing and working conditions and that they both account for 3.2% of working conditions. The study recommended that management of organizations should see social dialogue as a means of generating consensus, for improving workers’ working conditions and ultimately enhancing organizational performance.