ANALISIS METODE BAYESIAN MENGGUNAKAN NON-INFORMATIF PRIOR UNIFORM DISKRIT PADA SISTEM ANTREAN PELAYANAN  GERBANG TOL MUKTIHARJO

The growth rate of the traffic that is high resulting in congestion on the road network system. One of the government's efforts in addressing the issue with the build highways to reduce congestion, especially in large cities. One of the queuing phenomena that often occurs in the city of Semarang is the queue at the Toll Gate Muktiharjo, that the queue of vehicles coming to make toll payment. This study aims to determine how the service system at the Toll Gate Muktiharjo. This can be known by getting a queue system model and a measure of system performance from the distribution of arrival and service. The distribution of arrival and service are determined by finding the posterior distribution using the Bayesian method. The bayesian method combine the likelihood function of the sample and the prior distribution. The likelihood function is a negative binomial. The prior distribution used a uniform discrete. Based on the calculations and analysis, it can be concluded that the queueing system model at the Toll Gate Muktiharjo is a (Beta/Beta/5):(GD/∞/∞). The queue simulation obtained that the service system Toll Gate Muktiharjo is optimal based on the size of the system performance because busy probability is higher than jobless probability.

Download Full-text

ANALISIS SISTEM PELAYANAN KERETA API DI STASIUN SEMARANG TAWANG MENGGUNAKAN PROSES BAYESIAN

Jurnal Gaussian ◽

10.14710/j.gauss.v9i4.29407 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 495-504

Author(s):

Lifana Nugraeni ◽

Sugito Sugito ◽

Dwi Ispriyanti

Keyword(s):

Poisson Distribution ◽

Posterior Distribution ◽

Public Transportation ◽

Bayesian Method ◽

Service System ◽

Likelihood Function ◽

Performance Standard ◽

Sample Distribution ◽

Service Patterns ◽

Transportation Facilities

Along with the times, transportation has progressed. Regarding the means of transportation, one of the phenomenon that is easily encountered in everyday life is the queue at public transportation facilities. One of the queues that occurred at public transportation facilities is the train queue at Semarang Tawang Station. The number of trains that passes the station can cause the train service at the station busy. This study aims to see whether the train service system of Semarang Tawang Station is good or not. This can be consider by the queues method, determining the distribution of arrival patterns and service patterns to obtain a queues system model and a system performance standard. In this study, the distribution of arrival patterns and service patterns are determined by calculating the posterior distribution using the Bayesian method. The bayesian method was chosen because it is able to combine the sample distribution in the current study with the previous information for the same cases. The prior distribution and the likelihood function are the elements needed to obtain the posterior distribution. The distribution of arrival patterns and service patterns obtained from previous information follows the Poisson distribution. Based on the calculation of the posterior distribution, the result shows that the distribution of the arrival pattern is a discrete uniform distribution and the distribution of the service pattern is a Poisson distribution. The result shows that the train service system at Semarang Tawang Station has a model (Uniform Discrete / Gamma / 7: GD / ~ / ~) and has good service based on the performance values obtained.

Download Full-text

ANALISIS METODE BAYESIAN PADA SISTEM ANTREAN RAWAT JALAN DI RSUP Dr. KARIADI DENGAN DISTRIBUSI SAMPEL POISSON DAN GEOMETRIK

Jurnal Gaussian ◽

10.14710/j.gauss.v10i3.32801 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 413-422

Author(s):

Nur Azizah ◽

Sugito Sugito ◽

Hasbi Yasin

Keyword(s):

Internal Medicine ◽

Posterior Distribution ◽

Prior Distribution ◽

Bayesian Method ◽

Likelihood Function ◽

Queuing System ◽

Hospital Service ◽

Queuing Model ◽

Sample Distribution ◽

New Information

Hospital service facilities cannot be separated from queuing events. Queues are an unavoidable part of life, but they can be minimized with a good system. The purpose of this study was to find out how the queuing system at Dr. Kariadi. Bayesian method is used to combine previous research and this research in order to obtain new information. The sample distribution and prior distribution obtained from previous studies are combined with the sample likelihood function to obtain a posterior distribution. After calculating the posterior distribution, it was found that the queuing model in the outpatient installation at Dr. Kariadi Semarang is (G/G/c): (GD/∞/∞) where each polyclinic has met steady state conditions and the level of busyness is greater than the unemployment rate so that the queuing system at Dr. Kariadi is categorized as good, except in internal medicine poly.

Download Full-text

PEMODELAN SISTEM ANTREAN PELAYANAN BUS JALUR BARAT TERMINAL TIRTONADI KOTA SURAKARTA DENGAN METODE BAYESIAN

Jurnal Gaussian ◽

10.14710/j.gauss.v10i3.32807 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 466-475

Author(s):

Nurul Khasanah ◽

Sugito Sugito ◽

Yuciana Wilandari

Keyword(s):

System Performance ◽

Prior Information ◽

Bayesian Method ◽

Service System ◽

Performance Measure ◽

The West ◽

Queue System ◽

Service Patterns ◽

Bus Service ◽

System Performance Measure

Tirtonadi is the largest bus station in Surakarta City. The departure line is devided into two lines, namely west line and east line. The west line serves buses to the west of Surakarta City. The number of buses that enter and leave the station every day causes bus queues. Modeling the queue system and analyzing the system performance measure aims to determine wether the bus service system is good or not. The queue system model is obtained by finding the distribution of arrival patterns and service patterns using the Bayesian method. This method is used because it combines the information from the current research and the prior information from the previous research. The queueing condition of the five lanes in the west line meets steady state conditions because the utility value is less than 1. The queue displant is First Come First Service (FCFS) with unlimited customers and unlimited calling sources. Based on the posterior distribution, the queue system of service bus is (GAMM/IG/1):(GD/∞/∞) for Solo-Jakarta-Bandung lane and Pedesaan lane, while for Solo-Purwokerto-Cilacap, Solo-Yogyakarta, and Solo-Semarang has the queue system (GAMM/GAMM/1):(GD/∞/∞). The queue system of service bus for each lane has good services based on the value of system performance measure.

Download Full-text

Analysis of Pedestrian Movement on Delhi Roads by Using Naturalistic Observation Techniques

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.3141/2634-14 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2634 (1) ◽

pp. 95-100 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Abhaya Jha ◽

Geetam Tiwari ◽

Dinesh Mohan ◽

Sudipto Mukherjee ◽

Subhashish Banerjee

Keyword(s):

Rural Areas ◽

Road Traffic ◽

Pedestrian Behavior ◽

Road Traffic Crashes ◽

Large Cities ◽

The Road ◽

Road Space ◽

On The Road ◽

Pedestrian Crossing ◽

Indian Cities

Pedestrian fatalities constitute about 30% of the deaths caused by road traffic crashes in India. The proportion of pedestrian fatalities in large cities (Delhi, Mumbai, etc.) varies from 50% to 60% and is about 20% to 30% on national and state highways. Pedestrians are present on all road categories in urban as well as rural areas. At least 20% to 40% of work trips are taken as pedestrian trips in most Indian cities. However, on pedestrian facilities such as footpaths, safe crossing facilities are not present in most Indian cities. Even when present, their poor maintenance and poor construction quality make them unusable. As a result, pedestrians are forced to share the road space with motorized vehicles and to cross the roads where there is no safe pedestrian crossing. This paper attempts to study pedestrian behavior—walking along the road and crossing the road—by detecting pedestrians with the use of a vehicle-mounted camera. The vehicle is driven on various categories of roads at different times. The data collected with this method are varied temporally as well as spatially. A smartphone–based GPS logging app was used to collect telemetry data, which were synced with the camera feed. The objective of this study was to understand pedestrian behavior—walking on the road versus a footpath in the presence of various road features, such as the number of lanes, presence of medians, and presence of footpaths. The influence of the presence of public transport stops, junctions, foot bridges, and grade-separated junctions (flyover) on pedestrian crossing behavior was studied.

Download Full-text

Dynamic Vehicle Routing with Parking Probability under Connected Environment

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.1177/03611981211031223 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 036119812110312

Author(s):

Hao Yang ◽

Kentaro Oguchi

Keyword(s):

Vehicle Routing ◽

Connected Vehicles ◽

Dynamic Vehicle Routing ◽

Large Cities ◽

The Road ◽

Trip Time ◽

Driving Time ◽

Parking Lot ◽

On The Road ◽

Future Work

In downtown areas of large cities, it is very challenging for drivers to find available parking spots, even when they are provided with information on parking availability and location information. To overcome this challenge, this paper develops a dynamic vehicle routing system to search for the optimal routes for connected vehicles to find parking spots successfully and to minimize total trip time, including driving time and walking time. The system predicts the probability of each parking lot having available parking spots based on the existing available number of spots and the vehicle arrival and departure rates collected by connected vehicles. This probability is integrated in the search for vehicle routes to minimize total travel and walking times. Numerical experiments indicate that the proposed system can reduce the cruising time spent searching for available parking spots, and the total trip time can be reduced by up to 24%. In addition, the system can decrease the number of re-routing decisions, which reduces the stress of drivers on the road. A sensitivity analysis of the parking probability is also conducted. Some future work based on the proposed system is proposed in the conclusion to this paper.

Download Full-text

Using photocatalytic cleaners to improve quality air on the road network in large cities

10.18411/lj-05-2020-54 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

A.S. Vinogradova ◽

YU.V. Trofimenko

Keyword(s):

Road Network ◽

Improve Quality ◽

Large Cities ◽

The Road ◽

On The Road

Download Full-text

Comparative Analysis of Selected Car Parks

Multidisciplinary Aspects of Production Engineering ◽

10.2478/mape-2021-0033 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 365-375

Author(s):

Jolanta Baran ◽

Daria Tandos ◽

Iwona Żabińska

Keyword(s):

Comparative Analysis ◽

Significant Proportion ◽

Motor Vehicles ◽

Design Stage ◽

Passenger Cars ◽

Large Cities ◽

The Road ◽

Central Register ◽

Central Statistical ◽

On The Road

Abstract Statistics from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) state that the total number of motor vehicles and mopeds in Poland in 2019 was 31,989,313 units. According to the Central Register of Vehicles (CEPiK) maintained by the Ministry of Digitalisation, the number of motor vehicles registered in Poland in 2019 was 23,878.8 thousand units. Among them, 18,302.4 thousand passenger cars were registered. The constantly increasing number of vehicles on the road has a significant impact on the deterioration of road capacity and drivers’ frustration with parking, especially during rush hours in the centres of large cities. Hence, urban logistics, including the country’s parking policy, is extremely important to a significant proportion of citizens. Unfortunately, citizens have different perspectives on parking issues. Most drivers expect to be able to leave their car as close as possible to their destination, while some residents, especially non-motorised ones, are against the conversion of free city space into car parks. In response to the presented issues, a comparative analysis of selected types of car parks was carried out. This analysis was one of the stages of the project entitled: “Analysis of the environmental impact of a vertical parking solution using life cycle assessment at the design stage” carried out at the Silesian University of Technology.

Download Full-text

Ułomności statystyki motoryzacji w Polsce i ich konsekwencje dla badań geograficznych = Shortcomings of Poland’s motorisation statistics, and their implications for geographical research

Przegląd Geograficzny ◽

10.7163/przg.2020.2.4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 92 (2) ◽

pp. 227-245

Author(s):

Bartłomiej Kołsut ◽

Jędrzej Gadziński ◽

Tadeusz Stryjakiewicz

Keyword(s):

Spatial Distribution ◽

European Commission ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Large Cities ◽

Geographical Research ◽

The Road ◽

Eu Member States ◽

Se Poland ◽

On The Road ◽

High Level

Reports from the European Commission (e.g. European Commission, 2018) show a relatively high level of motorisation in Poland (leaving the country ranked 6th among EU Member States). The number of cars per 1000 inhabitants is higher here than in any other of the formerly-communist countries acceding to the EU in or after 2004. Unfortunately, however, this situation inter alia reflects twisted statistics on motorisation that do not therefore offer a full or proper reflection of the real situation on the Polish car market. This article has devoted itself to the analysis of shortcomings characterising three groups of motorisation statistics relating to: 1. the cars known as “dead souls” (end-of-life vehicles) – whose numbers are overstated (by perhaps 6 million cars – or 26% of the entire total), given the retention on the register of those that have not been on the road for a long time, 2. “cars with a grille” – part of a Poland-specific phenomenon that results in understatement of numbers of cars and overstatement of numbers of goods vehicles (to the tune of perhaps 750,000), given people’s efforts to ensure that personal cars are approved for registration as commercial vehicles, 3. company cars, given overstatement (equal to perhaps 1.5 million) of numbers of vehicles in cities due to the presence of leasing companies and large enterprises operating company cars. The spatial distribution across the country of cars in the above–mentioned groups is very uneven and does much to influence spatial patterns relating to Poland’s motorisation rate (s). Overall, motorisation is much overestimated in large cities (e.g. Warsaw, Poznań, Katowice and Wrocław), while being underestimated in rural areas (especially in SE Poland). A crucial achievement of our analysis involves correction of official European statistics in this regard. The discrepancies characterising the statistics have the clear spatial distribution presented in Fig. 6. In its last section, this article then attempts to determine the consequences of such twisting of the motorisation statistics where both geographical research and decision-making are concerned.

Download Full-text