scholarly journals A Trade and Welfare Analysis of Tariff Changes Within the TPP

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 477-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juyoung Cheong ◽  
Shino Takayama
Keyword(s):  
Welfare Analysis ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
The World ◽  
Positive Externality ◽  
Tariff Reductions ◽  
Sectoral Linkages

Abstract This paper examines the effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) tariff reductions on trade flows and welfare of the TPP members and nonmembers following the Caliendo and Parro (2015) method. We use comprehensive sectoral data on 39 countries and the rest of the world, including those in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Our results show that many TPP nonmembers along with the TPP members gain from the TPP tariff reductions, suggesting the existence of a positive externality, with the welfare gains mainly arising from the changes in the terms of trade. Our analysis also shows that the TPP members increase their imports from other TPP members and decrease from non-TPP members, but the trade creation effects exceed the trade diversion effects. Our calibration results under various assumptions of the model emphasize the role of multiple sectors and sectoral linkages in the welfare analysis of the TPP tariff reductions.

scholarly journals Caratteristiche e mutamenti del commercio agro-alimentare: un confronto fra Italia ed India

2009 ◽  
pp. 151-167
Author(s):  
Donatella Privitera ◽  
Bernardo Rognetta
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Closed Economy ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
Trade Reforms ◽  
The World ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
Jel Code ◽  
Flows Over Time

- This paper examines the product specialisation of Italian trade over the period 2000-2006 to identify the roots of Italy's sluggish trade performance with respect to India. In particular, the analysis focuses on the role of product specialisation in relation to world trade growth and competition from emerging countries. We used trade indicators to describe and asses the state of trade flows and trade patterns of a particular country like India and also to monitor these flows over time and across countries. Till the early 1990s, India was a closed economy: average tariffs exceeded 200 percent, quantitative restrictions on imports were extensive, and there were stringent restrictions on foreign investment. The country began to cautiously reform in the 1990s, liberalizing only under conditions of extreme necessity. Since that time, trade reforms have produced remarkable results. The economy is now among the fastest growing in the world. This leads some to see India as a ‘rapid globalizer' while others still see it as a ‘highly protectionist' economy. India however retains its right to protect when need arises. Agricultural tariffs average between 30-40 percent, anti-dumping measures have been liberally used to protect trade. India is now aggressively pushing for a more liberal global trade regime, especially in services.JEL Code: Q17Key words: emerging countries, trade indicators; competitive pressures

scholarly journals Trade creation and trade diversion effects from Croatia’s CEFTA and EU membership

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-521
Author(s):  
Hrvoje Jošić ◽  
Maja Bašić
Keyword(s):  
Random Effects ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Regional Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Eu

This paper provides a detailed empirical study of trade creation and trade diversion effects arising from Croatia's two regional trade agreements, the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the European Union (the EU). It offers a foundation for discussion about future trade policies in terms of benefits and drawbacks from those regional trade agreements. Croatia’s imports, exports and total trade flows with 180 trading partner countries were examined for the period of 2000 – 2016. Cross-country panel regression using gravity model of international trade assessed pooled OLS, fixed and random effects, as well as more robust Tobit and PPML estimator models. The random effects model found positive effects of Croatia-CEFTA integration evident in trade creation in imports, exports and total trade flows. Croatia-EU integration exhibits no significant effect of trade creation in neither imports, exports nor total trade flows. Nonetheless, there is a trade diversion effect in cases of imports and total trade flows. In the Tobit model CEFTA created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, while the EU diverted trade in imports and total trade flows. Finally, the robust PPML estimator found that: (1) CEFTA membership created trade in imports, exports and total trade flows, and (2) the EU membership diverted trade in imports and exports, and created trade in total trade flows.

Contracts and Export Behavior

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pol Antràs
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Contract Enforcement ◽  
Export Decisions ◽  
Global Organization ◽  
Contractual Relationships ◽  
The World ◽  
Organization Of Production

This chapter develops simple imperfect-contracting variants of the Melitz model of exporting and discusses empirical evidence suggestive of the role of these frictions as determinants of the structure of international trade flows. It explores both theoretically as well as empirically the significance of weak contract enforcement for the export decisions of firms and, more broadly, for the structure of international trade flows. As explained in Chapter 1, the rapid growth in intermediate input trade has been one of the most prominent developments in the world economy in recent years. At the same time, the contractual relationships that support the phenomenon of offshoring are much more intricate than those that support the mere shipment of goods across countries. Thus, weak contract enforcement has the potential to affect the global organization of production in more profound ways than has been studied so far.

scholarly journals TARIFF ELIMINATION: IMPACTS AND TREATMENTS FOR RESOLVING NIGERIA-EPAs STALEMATE

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Godwin Odo Onogwu ◽  
Peter Madu Bzugu ◽  
Emmanuel C. Ani
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Tariff Reduction ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Welfare Impact ◽  
The World ◽  
Aid For Trade ◽  
The Eu

In this manuscript, attempts were made to assess the impacts on Nigeria of full and instant tariff elimination from agricultural imports. A schedule of annual percentage reductions till full elimination as against an instant total or arbitrary elimination across all imports from the EU, as well asthe expected annual provisions via aids for envisaged trade to install infrastructural capacity aimed at forestalling fiscal imbalance, leading to stabilization for Nigeria, advocated. The study evaluates the likely share of Nigeria’s imports from the European Union (EU), Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS), and the rest of the world (ROW) in major agricultural product sections trade. The World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITs) platform was used to illicit a likely Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) scenario import data through a tariff eliminated query set up. The major impacts estimated include the resultant consumption impact, revenue impact, welfare impact, trade creation and diversion impacts, welfare impact of trade creation with consumption impact, and Welfare impacts of trade diversion with consumption impacts, in addition to their implications for scheduled tariff eliminations. Summary results were presented at product section levels as percentage of the impacts to contribution of agricultural sector in Nigeria’s GDP. Based on the estimated impacts and terms of trade deal, it is recommended that Nigeria should follow a schedule of percentage tariff reduction across product sections relative to the current most favored nations’ rather than arbitrary measures as a major policy of liberalizing trade. An annual percent tariff reduction rates over the 25 years, of 0.38%; 1.35%; 0.62%; 0.72%; and 0.2, for product sections 01-05, respectively, is recommended. In addition, it is also recommended that corresponding tariff losses in revenue due to scheduled reductions in tariff should be provided annually via aid for trade, for improvement in infrastructure, production and exportation that will sustain and improve intra, inter and extra regional trade in a growth and globalization pursuit aided by the EU. Keywords: International Agricultural Product Imports; Aid for Trade; EPAs; Impacts; Percentage Tariff Reduction Schedule.JEL Classification: F; F1; F6

scholarly journals Trade Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership for ASEAN and Other Asian Countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan V. Deardorff
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The World ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Art Trade

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) aspires to become a state-of-the-art trade agreement linking 12 countries on both sides of the Pacific. In addition to establishing a free trade agreement (FTA) among these countries, negotiators are pursuing a long list of other issues, both trade-related and non-trade related. This paper examines the likely effects of the TPP on trade alone, taking into account the fact that all of the potential members of the TPP are already participants in other FTAs. Using information from the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the existence of these FTAs plus data on the identities of countries’ major trading partners for both exports and imports, I discuss the likely effects on a list of countries in terms of trade creation, trade diversion, preference erosion, and “trade reversion”—the reversal of trade diversion that has already occurred due to existing FTAs. The list of countries includes all of the members of the TPP as well as of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In addition it includes 10 additional Asian economies that are not part of either.

scholarly journals Diversion et création d’échanges commerciaux dans le cadre du système canadien de préférences tarifaires

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-81
Author(s):  
Jaleel Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Product Category ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Major Conclusion ◽  
Usual Assumption ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Perfect Substitution

This paper explores in quantitative terms the potential effects on trade flows as a result of Canadian tariff preferences in favor of the developing countries instituted in 1974. The paper develops a model of trade creation and trade diversion due to preferences based on imperfect substitution, within each product category, between preference-granting, preference-receiving and non-preferred countries. This model depart from the usual assumption of the customs union theory that countries trade in perfect substitutes. The model is then applied to the 1978 trade date under BTN chapters 25 - 99 on a 4-digit classification. One major conclusion of the paper is that the assumption of perfect substitution tends to overstate the magnitude of trade creation and trade diversion, while the method based on less than perfect substitutability seems to offer more realistic estimates of the actual impact of trade preferences.

scholarly journals Winners and Losers in Customs Unions: An Experimental Investigation

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-72
Author(s):  
Baboo M Nowbutsing
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Trade Effect ◽  
Customs Unions ◽  
The World ◽  
Ricardian Model

In the context of a Competitive Ricardian Model (CRM), one can ask whether it is possible to relate winners and losers from a CU based on comparative advantage considerations. This was pursued by Venables (2003), who showed that careful consideration of a country’s comparative advantage – with the rest of the world relative to that with its partners in the CU- yields predictions about winners and losers. Starting from initial tariff equilibrium, in a 3 country model with a continuum of goods, he shows that a country with ‘extreme’ comparative advantage will be more vulnerable to trade diversion. In this experiment, the 3 x 3 Competitive Ricardian Model (CRM) in two scenarios multiple import tariffs and a customs union. We fully characterise the equilibrium under both. Starting from a tariff distorted situation, we find that when a customs union is formed there is an increase in trade flows among members; a rise in individual consumption of some goods; a clear terms of trade effect and the existence of trade diversion. Our experimental results support the simulation findings of Venables (2003), who showed that countries which have ‘extreme’ comparative advantage in a customs union will generally be more vulnerable to trade diversion.

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