Patent Valuation with Forecasts of Forward Citations

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Falk ◽  
Kenneth Train
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Current Paper ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
Number Of Citations ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Forward Citations ◽  
Statistical Results

AbstractPatents without established market values (e. g., no negotiated royalty rates) are often valued by comparing the number of citations the patent has received to the numbers received by other patents whose market values are established. For recently-issued patents, which have not had time to accumulate citations, this procedure can be noisy or even inapplicable. The current paper generalizes this valuation method to incorporate patent characteristics that relate to the number of citations the patent is expected to obtain in the future. We estimate statistical models in which the explanatory variables are observable characteristics of the patent at a given time, and the dependent variable is the number of citations that the patent receives after that date. Using several examples, we demonstrate a procedure for patent valuation that incorporates the statistical results, such that the valuation reflects the number of citations the patent has already received as well as the number it is expected, based on its characteristics, to receive in the future.

scholarly journals Recency predicts bursts in the evolution of author citations

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 1298-1308
Author(s):  
Filipi Nascimento Silva ◽  
Aditya Tandon ◽  
Diego Raphael Amancio ◽  
Alessandro Flammini ◽  
Filippo Menczer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Systematic Study ◽  
Burst Size ◽  
Size Distributions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
Author Citations ◽  
Number Of Citations ◽  
To Receive

The citations process for scientific papers has been studied extensively. But while the citations accrued by authors are the sum of the citations of their papers, translating the dynamics of citation accumulation from the paper to the author level is not trivial. Here we conduct a systematic study of the evolution of author citations, and in particular their bursty dynamics. We find empirical evidence of a correlation between the number of citations most recently accrued by an author and the number of citations they receive in the future. Using a simple model where the probability for an author to receive new citations depends only on the number of citations collected in the previous 12–24 months, we are able to reproduce both the citation and burst size distributions of authors across multiple decades.

scholarly journals Insomnolent Anathemas

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 391-398
Author(s):  
Philip G. Ziegler
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Insomnia ◽  
Short Article ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
To Receive

Over several decades during the second half of the last century, the Romanian-born Parisian intellectual E. M. Cioran penned a series of uneasy works whose despondent obsession with God is matched only by their utter disavowal of the reality of the divine. Wrestling pessimistically with nihilism in a world forged by chronic insomnia, illness, nicotine, and despair, Cioran confronts the theologian with a particularly radical articulation of unbelief hard-won at the “verge of existence,” and existence suffered as an “accident of God.” This short article explores the form and substance of Cioran’s biting and aphoristic expression of modern unbelief in an attempt to discern something of its theological significance. Perhaps theology would do well to receive this work as a necessary ascesis of its inapt and faithless contentment and ease with the world. And could it be that theology stands to be schooled in the near impossibility and profundity of hope by the cynicist’s surprising confession that, “Each time the future seems conceivable to me, I have the impression of being visited by Grace”?

scholarly journals Industrial Application of Internet of Things

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naresh Babu Bynagari
Keyword(s):  
Internet Of Things ◽  
Industrial Application ◽  
Smart Devices ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Industrial Services ◽  
The Future ◽  
Multiple Services ◽  
Iot Devices ◽  
To Receive

‘Industrial application of Internet of Things deals with the application of Internet of things to produce industrial services. It analyzed how industries can carry out multiple services with function remotely using IoT-connected devices. The several benefits and drawbacks to the application of IoT services were also investigated. The IoT is a network of connected systems and smart devices that use encoded networks like sensors, processors, and interactive hardware to receive, send and store data. The utilization of IoT for industrial functions will significantly improve industrial output, and in the future, more industries will come to apply IoT devices and systems for greater efficiency.  

scholarly journals The Pet Plant Project: Treating Plant Blindness by Making Plants Personal

2018 ◽  
Vol 80 (5) ◽  
pp. 339-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn E. Krosnick ◽  
Julie C. Baker ◽  
Kelly R. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Positive Reinforcement ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Fundamental Importance ◽  
Student Responses ◽  
Course Materials ◽  
Lecture Material ◽  
Qualitative Survey ◽  
The Future ◽  
Statistical Results

“Plant blindness” is defined as the failure to appreciate the fundamental importance of plants. To address this phenomenon, we created the Pet Plant Project (P3) where students grow an unknown plant from seed, monitor development, and relate lecture concepts to their plant on a daily basis. A qualitative survey was administered and analyzed to evaluate student responses to the experience. Themes in the analysis, identified across 209 student-participants at Tennessee Tech University, included positive reinforcement of lecture material, a new-found appreciation for plants, responsibility and pride related to plant care, a continued desire to grow plants, and more. Statistical results included: 73% of students noticed plants more after the project; 76% planned to grow plants in the future; and 68% made a connection with their own plant that bolstered engagement in course materials.

The Spread of Market Values

The 1970s ◽  
2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Borstelmann
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Human History ◽  
Market Values ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
World Economic

This chapter tracks the economy of the 1970s as it began to decline after the prosperity of previous decades. Economic growth had defined human history for two hundred years, reaching a peak in the generation after 1945 when world economic growth averaged an extraordinary 5–7 percent per year. Americans rode that growth to a higher standard of living than anyone else. But in the 1970s it all seemed to be flowing away. Unemployment, oil shortages, a plunging stock market, recession, and, above all, inflation were apparently ending these golden years of unparalleled prosperity. Inflation hit everyone, and it hit the poor hardest of all. Persistent inflation undercut dreams and hopes for the future. The economic trauma of the 1970s threatened to destabilize Americans' understanding of how the world worked.

How to plan for the progression of dementia

2021 ◽  
pp. 263-280
Author(s):  
Andrew E. Budson ◽  
Maureen K. O’Connor
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Daily Living ◽  
Power Of Attorney ◽  
Future Planning ◽  
Health Care Proxy ◽  
Loved One ◽  
Legal Documents ◽  
The Future ◽  
Will Power ◽  
To Receive

As your loved one begins to experience more problems with thinking and memory, they will need help managing their health care, finances, and other aspects of daily living. They may need to leave their home in order to receive the amount or type of care they require. Preparing legal documents such as a will, power of attorney, and health care proxy is an important step in planning for the future. Having conversations with your loved one early after a diagnosis ensures that they can participate in future planning as much as possible, easing your burden as increased care is required. Even if they don’t want to participate, you can still explore options so you will be ready when a crisis occurs.

A Feasible Reform

2020 ◽  
pp. 155-168
Author(s):  
Edward B. Foley
Keyword(s):  
New Hampshire ◽  
Majority Rule ◽  
Rust Belt ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Winner Take All ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Take All

Each state already has the constitutional power to require that candidates win a majority of the popular vote to receive all of the state’s electoral votes. Each state could adopt the kind of runoff that New Hampshire used in the past, or instant runoff voting. There is no need for a multistate compact. If only two or three states had used runoffs, or instant runoff voting, in 2016—for example, Florida and Michigan, or the three Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—and if Clinton had won those runoffs, then she would have been president. In the future, it might be a Republican candidate who prevails in runoffs in pivotal states but would lose using plurality winner-take-all. States with ballot initiatives can use them to require majority rule for appointing electors as long as they leave the specific details to legislation.

PP014 Will A Proposed Policy In Japan, Health Gold License, Work?

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (S1) ◽  
pp. 74-74
Author(s):  
Yusuke Nakamura ◽  
Yoshiyuki Kuno ◽  
Daiki Kanazawa ◽  
Kosuke Iwasaki ◽  
Tomomi Takeshima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Center ◽  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Claims Data ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
Medical Checkup ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
To Receive

INTRODUCTION:Mr. Shinjiro Koizumi and some younger members of Japan's National Diet suggested a new policy, “Health Gold License” which would introduce financial incentives to encourage population health management, with people receiving medical checkups receiving a reduction in coinsurance from the current 30 percent to 20 percent. In this research, to evaluate the policy, we adjusted confounding factors of those insured who receive medical checkups (Medical-Checkup Group) and those who do not (Non-Medical-Checkup Group) using claims data, and estimated the effect of medical checkups on medical costs.METHODS:We analyzed Japanese employee-based claims data provided by the Japan Medical Data Center Co. Ltd. for the 3 million insured from January 2005 to December 2015. Two regression models were developed. Under model A, explanatory variables were year, age, dummy variables for various hierarchical condition categories and for medical checkups. Under model B, explanatory variables were estimated medical costs per patient per month (PMPM) in 2012 and a dummy variable for medical checkups. We also simulated the financial impact if Japan introduced Health Gold License for all insured.RESULTS:The coefficients of medical checkups in model A and in model B were -JPY4,816 PMPM and -JPY8,735 PMPM, respectively. The gap of medical costs between the Medical-Checkup Group and Non-Medical-Checkup Group was JPY4,588 PMPM, without any adjustment. If all of those insured received medical checkups, the breakeven coinsurance would be 27.2 percent.CONCLUSIONS:The Medical-Checkup Group is less expensive than Non-Medical-Checkup Group by at least 30%, therefore, the break-even coinsurance for them would be 0 percent. However, because most of those insured have already gone to medical check-ups every year, if the coinsurance were reduced from 30 percent to 20 percent for all insured, the finance would be largely negative. The break-even as 27.2 percent, we believe, would not incentivize the Non-Medical-Checkup Group to receive medical checkups. Therefore, the coinsurance reduction proposed under Health Gold License is not fully justified financially.

scholarly journals An Exploration of Entrepreneurship in Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games: Second Life and Entropia Universe

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane Kieger
Keyword(s):  
Virtual Worlds ◽  
Second Life ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Role Playing ◽  
Current Paper ◽  
Venture Creation ◽  
Role Playing Games ◽  
The Future ◽  
Massively Multiplayer

Virtual worlds represent a new market with a distinct economy andmany individuals are trying to exploit this very new technology in thesearch of profitable opportunities. The current paper proposes to studyentrepreneurship in the Massively Multiplayer Online Role-PlayingGames (MMORPG) Second Life® and Entropia Universe® in whichmonetary trades are possible. A survey was proposed to the community of players of both games, and from a sample of 244 players, nineteenentrepreneurs were contacted for a second survey. The traits of theentrepreneurs were compared to those of the players andentrepreneurship was observed in Second Life® and Entropia Universe®.  In fact, all the necessary conditions are present for entrepreneurship: a new technology giving new sources of revenues, an entrepreneur willing to invest money in order to increase his wealth, and a market with an economy well understood. The different entrepreneurs have developed successful ventures in several markets, and they had well defined the strategy they wanted to adopt. They have examined the different markets in which they have entered although they did not use all the tools known in the marketing fields. Further, some steps in the process of creation of the venture may not be important and some may be done relatively swiftly, thus the venture creation in MMORPG may be relatively easy. In conclusion, the venture creation may be relatively undemanding in virtual worlds, and this opens new possibilities for the future.

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