scholarly journals Trade Potential of China’s Export to ASEAN: The Gravity Model Using New Economic Mass Proxies

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 411-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqin Zhang ◽  
Shouyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Member States ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
High Share

AbstractConsidering the fact that China is the world factory, in which the trade of intermediate goods has a relatively high share and especially that the trade of intermediate goods with ASEAN is even higher, it is not suitable to use GDP as the economic mass proxies in the gravity model to estimate trade flows traditionally. This paper, by using the data between China and 10 member states of ASEAN along with other 12 main trading partners of China from 1999 to 2013, constructs China’s bilateral export equation based on the gravity model using new economic mass proxies according to Baldwin and Taglioni, and then calculates the trade potential index of China’s export to the member states of ASEAN by using this equation. The empirical results show that, China’s export trade equation based on new economic mass proxy has stronger explanatory power compared to the standard gravity model by using GDP as economic mass proxy. Therefore, the calculating results of trade potential of China’s export to ASEAN are more convincing.

Tapping Global Potential of Pakistan in Merchandise Trade: Evidence from PPML Based Gravity Model and Trade Potential Index

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150017
Author(s):  
Nazia Gul ◽  
Javed Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Food Groups ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
Proactive Measures ◽  
Merchandise Trade

This study aims to assess the trade potential of Pakistan in terms of destinations and products against 101 potential trading partners while applying the gravity model and the trade potential index. The findings indicate that Pakistan’s trade/export potential is maximum with the countries which are not its traditional trading partners. On the other hand, “manufactured goods”, “misc manufactured articles” and “food groups” are the products where maximum trade/export potential exists. Results indicate that Pakistan should not only adopt proactive measures to tap non-traditional partners but it is equally important to strengthen the level of trade with its traditional trading partners.

Gravity Models of China's Bamboo and Rattan Products Exports: Applications to Trade Potential Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 337-344
Author(s):  
Li Huang ◽  
Ke Chen ◽  
Mi Zhou ◽  
Brendan Nuse
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Economic Size

Abstract Using export panel data for China and 24 bamboo and rattan trading partners from 2007 to 2017, this study simulates the export trade of Chinese bamboo and rattan products using a gravity model. Our results showed that economic size has a significant positive impact on the bilateral trade of bamboo and rattan products, while absolute distance between two major economic centers and population size have a significant negative impact. Furthermore, relevant Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) trade arrangements have an impact on bamboo and rattan product trade flows from China. Meanwhile, trade of bamboo and rattan between China and APEC countries such as South Korea, Canada, Russia, and Thailand shows much room for growth.

scholarly journals Sustainability of merchandise trade flows between Croatia and other EU member states: Panel cointegration approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mile Bosnjak ◽  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Ivan Novak
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Member States ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Merchandise Export ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel ◽  
Merchandise Trade

This research examined the sustainability of merchandise trade flows between Croatia and other European Union (EU) member states. Merchandise exports and imports were disaggregated into bilateral merchandise trade flows between Croatia and nineteen EU trading partners for the period 1999-2014. Following Granger-causality and cointegration tests for panel data, we specified the model to be estimated. Using a pooled mean group (PMG) estimator for dynamic heterogeneous panel data, the relationship between Croatian merchandise export and import was assessed empirically. Research results revealed unsustainable Croatian merchandise exports and imports vis-?-vis nineteen EU partners.

scholarly journals Analysis of Factors Affecting Kiwifruit Export

2019 ◽  
Vol 131 ◽  
pp. 01082
Author(s):  
Wei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Gravitation Model ◽  
Significant Factors

The Trade Gravitation Model was used to empirically analyze the trade flows and directions of kiwifruit in 9 countries for 5 years. The results showed that the economic scale (GDP) and institutional arrangements of trading partners were significant factors. The scientific use of the Trade Gravitation Model can promote the smooth development of export trade.

scholarly journals Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows Between Vietnam and Trading Partner Countries – Gravity Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol Volume II (December 2021) ◽  
pp. 128-142
Author(s):  
Le Khuong Ninh ◽  
Phan Anh Tu ◽  
Pham Thi Nhu Hao
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Population Exchange ◽  
Economic Distance ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Convergence Method

This study uses the gravity model to investigate the bilateral trade flows between Vietnam and 52 countries from 2001 through 2011. The data are collected from International Trade Centre (ITC), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank (WB). The results show that economic size, geographical distance, economic distance, technological innovation, trade openness, free trade agreement, population, exchange rate, and common border affect the bilateral trade flows between Vietnam and these 52 countries. More importantly, this study uses the speed-of-convergence method to find new potential trading partners for Vietnam, such as those in Africa and Southwest Asia.

scholarly journals The effectiveness of trade map as tool for measuring the trade potential between South Africa and China

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 463-473
Author(s):  
Cornelius Bothma ◽  
Michael Colin Cant
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Good Alternative ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Complete Analysis ◽  
Online Tool ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
National Trade

Measuring the trade potential between two countries is an important task both for the national trade analyst as well as for the company researcher. Trade potential is commonly measured using the gravity model, an economic construct. The gravity model, however, is not a perfect model and has its detractors. More recently, the International Trade Centre developed Trade Map an online tool for analysing the trade flows between countries. Although not yet widely used, Trade Map appears to be to good alternative or complementary facility that can be used to measure trade potential. The purpose of this article is to report on the evaluation of Trade Map as a tool for measuring trade potential. In so doing, Trade Map was used to analyse the trade potential between South Africa and China. It was found that Trade Map can provide the international trade researcher with a rich width and depth of information on the trade potential between two countries. It is suggest that Trade Map should be used together with the gravity model to create a more complete analysis of trade potential

scholarly journals Estimation of the Impact of the New International Land and Sea Trade Channel on the Development of the Trade Potential of 8 Domestic Provinces and Cities

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03024
Author(s):  
Gu Jijian ◽  
Feng Lipeng ◽  
He Liyan ◽  
Zhong Heng
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Potential Coefficient ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Trade Channel ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Belt And Road

The new international land and sea trade channel is an important part of China’s “The Belt and Road Initiative” going south, with Chongqing as the operating center, and 7 provinces and cities such as Guangxi, Guizhou, and Gansu as key nodes. Gravity Model of Trade is adopted to analyze the issue of trade creation effect and trade transfer effect in the flow of China-ASEAN trade in detail. According to the theoretical trade value calculated by the export gravity model, the actual trade value was divided by the theoretical value to calculate the trade potential coefficient, which has been applied to measure the trade potential of export of 8 provinces and cities to the ten ASEAN countries. It is concluded that trading partners are in different types ranging from “potential remodeling”, “potential expansion” to “great potential”, and heterogeneity tests are performed to prove the self-consistency of the effect measurement. Further, it is proposed that to further develop trade relations, we must develop positive factors to promote export trade, stimulate trade needs of partner countries, and actively develop trade market countermeasures.

scholarly journals Regional Integration in South Asia: An Analysis of Trade Flows Using the Gravity Model

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naseem Akhter ◽  
Ejaz Ghani
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Trade Effect ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Trade Potential

The study deals with trade benefits from the free trade agreement of the SAARC countries. It assesses the trade potential and trade creation with member and non-member countries. The gravity model has been used to measure the bilateral trade flows and to assess the trade effect for member and non-member countries. Two analyses estimate the gravity model. The first analysis is based on crosssectional data to capture the trade effect individually each year; and the second analysisutilises the pooled data to measure the overall trade effects and trade flows for the period 2003 to 2008. The results from the two approaches show that estimated coefficients are consistent with the model assumptions. Both analyses show that the regional trade agreement of the SAARC countries could divert the trade for member countries as well as for the non-member countries. However, trade volume will increase only if the major partners (Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka) sign regional trade agreements. JEL classification: F15 Keywords: Trade; Regional Integration; Gravity Model

Trade Potentials in Gravity Panel Data Models

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca De Benedictis ◽  
Claudio Vicarelli
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Yearly Average ◽  
Trade Potential ◽  
The Right ◽  
Trade Potentials ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractThe paper shows how - using as an example the trade flows between eleven European countries and 31 OECD `reporting' countries - the result of a gravity model, in terms of potential trade, changes substantially when country heterogeneity and dynamics are taken into account.Comparing the in-sample trade potential index derived from various estimators yields three different results: (a) the average trade potential index poorly represents the distribution of yearly trade potentials; (b) the index converges towards the demarcation value corresponding to the equality between observed and predicted trade flows when country heterogeneity and dynamics are taken into account; (c) the sign of its yearly average is not the right statistic with which to determine the (in)existence of unrealized trade potentials.Finally, the index derived from a dynamic specification with multilateral fixed-effects is better able to reflect the role played by the time-variant country-specific unobservable element associated with the possible presence of positive or negative trade potentials.

scholarly journals Assessment of export flows of the Russian Federation to the EAEU countries using gravity modeling

KANT ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-72
Author(s):  
Maria Mikhailovna Tsvil ◽  
Ariana Olegovna Kusaya
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Research Tool ◽  
Gravity Modeling ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Member States ◽  
Dummy Variables ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article is devoted to the identification of factors influencing the export trade flows of the Russian Federation to the EAEU member states. Gravity modeling (H. Linnemann's model) was used as a research tool. The introduction of dummy variables is justified. A comparative analysis of the identified factors is presented. A forecast of export trade flows of the Russian Federation to the EAEU countries for 2020-2022 has been made.

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