scholarly journals Further Evidence on Export-Led Growth in the United Arab Emirates: Are Non-Oil Exports or Re-Exports the Key to Economic Growth?

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasia S. Kalaitzi ◽  
Trevor W. Chamberlain
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Short Run

Abstract This study investigates the relationships between exports and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates. Understanding these relationships is important for purposes of establishing appropriate growth and development policies and strategies. The study uses an augmented Cobb–Douglas production function to examine the causality between non-oil exports, re-exports and economic growth over the period 1981–2012. To investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables, the study performs the Johansen cointegration test, while the direction of the short-run causality is examined by applying the Granger causality test in a vector error correction model framework. A modified Wald test in an augmented vector autoregressive model is applied in order to find the direction of the long-run causality. This research provides evidence in support of an indirect short-run uni-directional causality from economic growth to re-exports, through physical capital accumulation and imports. As for long-run causality, the results show that a bi-directional causality exists between re-exports and economic growth in the UAE.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship among Human Development, Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan.

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (4II) ◽  
pp. 885-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
A. Rauf Butt ◽  
Mr. Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Ishrat Begum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study investigates the econometrically empirical evidence of both the short-run and long-run interrelationships among human development, exports and economic growth in an ARDL framework for Pakistan. This study also examines causal linkages among the said variables by applying the Augmented Granger Causality test of Toda-Yamamoto (1995). By using data on Pakistan’s real GDP, real exports and Human Development Index (HDI) for the period 1970-71 to 2008-09, three models have been estimated. The results show cointegration between economic growth, physical capital, real exports and human development when human development is taken as dependent variables. Furthermore, unidirectional Granger causality running from real GDP to real exports has been found in Bivariate, Trivariate and Tetravariate causality framework. The inclusion of HDI as a measure of human development reduces the physical capital share in real GDP whereas it improves the robustness of the regression model. Real GDP seems to provide resources to improve human development in only the long-run while human capital accumulation does not seem to accelerate real GDP both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical results of the study do not support ‘export-led growth hypothesis’ and human capital-based endogenous growth theory in case of Pakistan, however, it does support ‘growth-driven exports hypothesis’ in case of Pakistan. JEL classification: O11 Keywords: Human Development, Exports, Economic Growth, ARDL, Causality

scholarly journals Export Diversification and Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates: An Empirical Investigation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
SAIMA SHADAB
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Abstract Using the Vector Error Correction Model and Toda-Yamamoto Causality approach, this paper investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between export diversification, physical and human capital, imports, and economic growth in the UAE. The study period in consideration is 1975-2017. The findings obtained from the VECM test confirm the existence of a significant long-run relationship between export diversification, imports, and economic growth in the UAE. Besides, the Toda Yamamoto Granger Causality test results reveal that imports Granger-cause UAE’s economic growth which proves the validity of the Import-Led Growth hypothesis for the UAE economy in the long-run. The results also confirm that a unidirectional causal relationship exists from export diversification to economic growth for the UAE. This finding indicates the success of the UAE economy in attaining economic diversification and reduction from oil-dependency.

scholarly journals The Impact of Gender-Specific Human Capital on Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Turkey

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (s1) ◽  
pp. 15-30
Author(s):  
Hacer Simay Karaalp-Orhan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Education Indicators ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this study, how the human capital disaggregated by gender and physical capital affects economic growth in Turkey is examined for the period of 1971–2015. By using an arithmetic average of health and education indicators as a proxy of human capital formation, an attempt was made to examine the relationship between the human capital and economic growth under the scope of gender inequality. In this context, an ARDL-bounds testing approach and the unrestricted error-correction model were used to investigate the co-integration in the long- run and short run. Further, the causality test was also conducted to identify the direction of the causality between the variables. The main finding indicates that male human capital has been the central variable affected by both economic growth and physical capital. On one hand, a significant positive relationship was found between the economic growth and physical capital and male human capital in the long-run, while on the other hand, the female human capital was associated negatively to the economic growth. There is no evidence of causality that links the female human capital to other variables. This result suggests that women are not well utilized in the Turkish economy and the country suffers from untapped potential of women.

scholarly journals Long-Run and Short-Run Relationships Between Education and Economic Growth: The Malaysian Experience

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishak Yussof ◽  
Atif Awad Abdillah ◽  
Zulkifly Osman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Human Capital Accumulation ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Education And Economic Growth

This paper investigates the long and short-run relationships between human capital, measured in terms of average years of schooling for people aged 15 years and older, and economic growth in Malaysia between 1970 and 2009. The data was collected from various sources, including the World Bank database, the International Labour Organization (ILO) and scholarly texts. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) test was utilized to examine the relationships between education and economic growth. The results of the co-integration test revealed that economic growth was absolutely exogenous and the remaining variables were endogenous in Malaysia. This fi nding suggests that the status of these variables depend on the level of economic growth, while the opposite is not true. The most interesting results were that the long-run forcing variables for human capital accumulation were capital stock, employment and economic growth. However, the causality test revealed that economic growth, employment and capital stock, not only aff ects human capital in the short-run, but in the long run as well. The causality tests performed detected two-way relationships between human capital and capital stock, and employment separately in the long run. Although economic growth is exogenous, Malaysia should still continue to invest in its human capital accumulation since it could att ract more investments and subsequently create employment opportunities within the economy.   Keywords: Education levels, education development, income, economic growth.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 911-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study examines the relationship between Indian stock market and economic growth from a sectoral perspective using quarterly time-series data from 2003:Q4 to 2014:Q4. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach bounds test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and sector-specific stock indices. The empirical results reveal that sector-specific economic growth are significantly influenced by changes in the respective sector-specific stock price indices in the long run as well as in the short run. Apart from that, the control variables, such as trade openness and inflation, act as the instrument variables in explaining the variations in the sector-specific GDP of the economy. The results of Granger causality test demonstrate unidirectional long-run as well as short-run causality running from sector specific stock prices to respective sector GDP. The findings suggest that economic growth of the country is sensitive to respective sub-sector stock market investments. The findings highlight the reasons for cyclical and counter-cyclical business phase for the overall economy.

Does transportation infrastructure impact economic growth in India?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sreenu Nenavath
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

Purpose This paper aims to show a long run and causal association between economic growth and transport infrastructure. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors use ARDL models through the period 1990 – 2020 to investigate the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth in India. Findings The infrastructure has a positive impact on economic growth in India for the long run. Moreover, Granger causality test demonstrates a unidirectional relationship between transport infrastructure to economic development. Stimulatingly, the paper highlights the effect of air infrastructure statistically insignificant on economic growth in the long and short-run period. Originality/value The original outcome from the study delivers an inclusive depiction of determinants of economic growth from transport infrastructure in India, and these findings will help the policymakers to frame policies to improve the transport infrastructure. Hence, it is proposed that the government of Indian should focus more to upsurge the transport infrastructure for higher economic development.

Energy Policy Issues in Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 50-65
Author(s):  
Dilek Temiz Dinç ◽  
Aytaç Gökmen ◽  
Zehra Burçin Kanık
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Renewable Energy Production ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Republic

Energy is the source of development of the mankind and an indispensable input for economic growth. Currently, most of the energy consumed in the world is composed of fossil fuels which are not environmentally friendly and reliable since their prices are volatile and their supply compels importing countries dependent on energy exporting countries. Thus, a good remedy to reduce fossil fuel dependency is to utilize more renewable energy resources. Renewable resources can be replenished quickly, are almost infinite and would lead a country to sustainable development. The Republic of Turkey is a net importer of energy. The diversification of energy sources and supply security is of great importance for it. Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between renewable energy production and economic growth in Turkey by using Johansen Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality Test and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF). Consequently, both long run and short run a casualty running from GDP growth to renewable energy production is determined in the study.

Effect of economic growth, trade openness, urbanization, and technology on environment of Asian emerging economies

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1123-1134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Ayesha Ameer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Stirpat Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the long-run as well as short-run effect of economic growth, trade openness, urbanization and technology on environmental degradation (sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions) in Asian emerging economies. Design/methodology/approach The study utilizes the augmented STIRPAT model and uses the panel cointegration and causality test to analyze the long-run and short-run relationships. Due to the unavailability of data for all Asian emerging economies, the study focuses on 11 countries, i.e. Bangladesh, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Thailand, and uses balance panel from 1980 to 2014 at annual frequency. Findings Results showed that the inverted U-shape hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve holds between economic growth and SO2 emissions. While technology and trade openness increases SO2 emissions, urbanization reduces SO2 emissions in Asian emerging economies in the long run. Unidirectional causality flows from urbanization to SO2 emissions and from SO2 emissions to economic growth in the short run. Practical implications Research and development centers and programs are required at the government and private levels to control pollution through new technologies as well as to encourage the use of disposed-off waste as a source of energy which results in lower dependency on fossil fuels and leads to reduce emissions. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the effects of urbanization, economic growth, technology and trade openness on environmental pollution (measured by SO2 emissions) in Asian emerging economies. This study provides the essential evidence, information and better understanding to key stakeholders of environment. The findings of this study are useful for individuals, corporate bodies, environmentalist, researchers and government agencies at large.

scholarly journals The Asymmetric Influence of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Kenya: Evidence From NARDL

SAGE Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 215824401989407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Chen ◽  
Duncan O. Hongo ◽  
Max William Ssali ◽  
Maurice Simiyu Nyaranga ◽  
Consolata Wairimu Nderitu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive

This study analyzed the asymmetric effects of financial development on economic growth using a model augmented with inflation and government expenditure asymmetries to inform model specification. The research question used entails, Do their asymmetry changes significantly influence growth? Using the nonlinear auto-regressive distributive lag (NARDL), the most significant results posit that positive shocks in financial development in the short run and its negative shocks in the long run increase and decrease economic growth, respectively. Regarding inflation, its positive (negative) shocks in both runs, respectively, reduce (increase) economic growth. In comparison, positive shocks in financial development that spur growth in the short run and negative shocks in financial development (government expenditure) that increase (reduce) growth are the most domineering effects as the rest of the shocks insignificantly affect growth. Results clearly demonstrate to an environment steered by stable and sustainable inflation that regulated government expenditure and comprehensive financial system deepening would positively cause economic growth. Therefore, appropriate policies that favor low inflation and reduced government spending, expansion of feasibly reformed financial institutions, capital accumulation, and increased resource mobilization should be instituted if real growth is to positively happen.

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