Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Offs In ASEAN-10

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-256
Author(s):  
Nurul Lisani ◽  
Raja Masbar ◽  
Vivi Silvia
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Panel Cointegration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Variance Decompositions

This study empirically explores the nature of inflation-unemployment dynamic causal relationships both in the short and long-run in the ASEAN-10 over the 1989-2018 period. Based on the panel cointegration test, the study documented a long-run equilibrium between inflation and unemployment. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis, the study found an insignificant inflation-unemployment relationship in the short-run. However, in the long-run, inflation is found to affect the unemployment rate positively. Our results from the Variance Decompositions (VDCs) analysis also supported these findings, where the unemployment responded at the more significant percentage to shocks in inflation compared to the response of inflation to shocks in unemployment. These findings only supported the relevance of the Phillips curve theory in the long-run. Overall, these findings imply that although inflation targeting policy is not relevant to the short-run, it becomes crucial and effective to reduce the unemployment rate in ASEAN-10 in the long-run.JEL Classifications: E52, E58, J64 How to Cite:Lisani, N., Masbar, R., & Silvia, V. (2020). Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Offs In Asean-10. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 9(2), 241-256. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.16346.

scholarly journals PENGARUH STRUKTUR KEPEMILIKAN DAN STRUKTUR MODAL TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Rani Raharjanti ◽  
Nur Setyowati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Managerial Ownership ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Ratio

This paper aims to investigate the short and long run behavior of ownership structure, capital structure and Indonesian Stock Price over the period from 2007 to 2016. To capture the long run relationships, we used the panel cointegration by Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004), while the short run relationship are measured by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The main findings are as follows. First, the result of most results of Pedroni’s panel cointegration tests, suggest the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. In consequence, this result suggests that there is a cointegration between stock price, managerial ownership, institutional ownership, public ownership, debt to equity ratio and earnings per share. Second, the results of VECM indicate that in the short run, only managerial ownership that will influence the stock price.

Public expenditure on education, educational attainment and unemployment nexus in India: an empirical investigation

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 663-674
Author(s):  
Deepti Singh ◽  
Shruti Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Peer Review ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Secondary Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Enrolment Ratio

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the nexus among public expenditure allocated to education, educational attainment at secondary level and unemployment rate in India for the period 1987–2017.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) bound testing approach suggested by Pesaran et al. (2001) to find the long-run relationship among the variables. The causal linkages are investigated through block exogeneity test based on vector error correction model.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that educational attainment proxied by gross enrolment ratio at secondary level of education negatively affects unemployment rate in long run as well as in short run. However, public expenditure on education is ineffective in influencing both educational attainment and unemployment rate.Originality/valueThe study is the first empirical effort to identify the causal nexus among public expenditure on education, educational attainment and unemployment in the context of India.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-06-2019-0396

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and Unemployment in Lebanon: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Mohammad Khanssa ◽  
Wafaa Nasser ◽  
Abbas Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This paper uses econometric modeling to test the nature of the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Lebanon throughout the period 1993-2014. It takes the Phillips curve relationship as a reference for the tests. Cointegration, Granger causality and VECM were used to test the relationship both in the short and in the long run. The study resulted in finding out that the Phillips curve relationship doesn’t hold in Lebanon in the short run and came to a conclusion that there is a one-way causality relationship in the long run from unemployment to inflation and not in the opposite direction.

Long-run Association Between Bank Credit and Output: A Study on Districts’ Panel of West Bengal, India

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092091844
Author(s):  
Ramesh Chandra Das ◽  
Soniya Chavan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Data Framework ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

In a globalized world, the financial sectors and the real sectors are interlinked. Although it is a common phenomenon to a developed economy in its national as well as provincial levels, it has hardly been tested for the low-income countries like India. It is further difficult to have such linkage effects at the provinces and district levels. This article aims to examine whether per capita commercial bank credit and per capita net district domestic product for the districts of West Bengal state in India have long-run associations for the period 1993–2014 in a panel data framework. Using the panel cointegration and Vector error correction mechanism (VECM) technique, the study reveals that both the financial and real sector indicators are cointegrated and the short-run errors are corrected significantly to establish that there is bilateral causality between credit and output in both long run and short run.

scholarly journals Determinants of Current Account Balance in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Analysis Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Soo Xin Lin ◽  
Jerome Kueh
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

This paper aims to examine the potential determinants of current account balance, which has been an interesting research topic in analysis over the decade. The relationship between current account balance and several different variables, such as fiscal balance, public debt, real GDP, and age dependency ratio for old and young, are examined. In this paper, the selected time period is from 1990 to 2016, in order to include the financial crisis period in six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam). To this end, the research is based on the estimation of panel unit root, panel cointegration, panel Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM) and panel Granger causality. The findings show that all variables are cointegrated in the long-run and there are also unidirectional and bidirectional causal relationships in the short-run.

scholarly journals PENGARUH STRUKTUR KEPEMILIKAN DAN STRUKTUR MODAL TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Rani Raharjanti ◽  
Nur Setyowati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Managerial Ownership ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Ratio

This paper aims to investigate the short and long run behavior of ownership structure, capital structure and Indonesian Stock Price over the period from 2007 to 2016. To capture the long run relationships, we used the panel cointegration by Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004), while the short run relationship are measured by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The main findings are as follows. First, the result of most results of Pedroni’s panel cointegration tests, suggest the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. In consequence, this result suggests that there is a cointegration between stock price, managerial ownership, institutional ownership, public ownership, debt to equity ratio and earnings per share. Second, the results of VECM indicate that in the short run, only managerial ownership that will influence the stock price.

EXOGENOUS OR ENDOGENOUS MONEY SUPPLY: EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (04) ◽  
pp. 1250025 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZATUL E. BADARUDIN ◽  
AHMED M. KHALID ◽  
MOHAMED ARIFF
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Endogenous Money

This paper investigates the nature of money supply in Australia over two separate monetary policy regimes: monetary and inflation targeting. The post-Keynesian theory on endogenous money was tested with the aim of investigating whether endogenous money supply, if it did exist, followed the accomodationist, structuralist or liquidity preference viewpoints. Data used are quarterly series from 1977 to 2007 and we used vector error-correction model for long-run and short-run causality tests. We found that money supply is endogenous in Australia even when the central bank targeted monetary aggregates during the period 1977 to 1993.

scholarly journals International Logistics and Cross-Border E-Commerce Trade: Who Matters Whom?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1745
Author(s):  
Yugang He ◽  
Renhong Wu ◽  
Yong-Jae Choi
Keyword(s):  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run

Unlike previous papers on international logistics and cross-border e-commerce trade, this paper sets Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries as an example to explore the dynamic interaction between international logistics and cross-border e-commerce trade. The panel data for the period 2000–2018 will be employed to perform an empirical analysis via a host of econometric techniques, such as panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, panel causality tests and the panel vector error correction model. Incorporating with other control variables, we find that there is a long-term relationship between international logistics and cross-border e-commerce trade. Specifically speaking, in the long-run, international logistics has a positive and significant effect on cross-border e-commerce trade. However, in the short-run, international logistics has a negative and significant effect on cross-border e-commerce trade. Furthermore, the results suggest that deviation from a cointegration system of cross-border e-commerce trade and international logistics will lead to the cross-border e-commerce trade and international logistics changing within the range of approximately 2.2% to 47.2% in the next period. Therefore, referring to these findings, each OECD country’s government should take up corresponding policies to ensure the sustainable development of both international logistics and cross-border e-commerce trade.

scholarly journals QUALITY OF INSTITUTIONS AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: CAUSALITY TESTS FOR CROSS‐COUNTRY PANELS

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 103-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hea-Jung Hyun
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Panel Cointegration Test ◽  
Quality Of Institutions ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run

This paper analyzes the short-run and long-run dynamics between quality of institutions and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the sample of 62 developing countries covering the period 1984–2003. Panel cointegration test and FM OLS (Fully Modified OLS) estimators are used to test for cointegration. For short‐run dynamics, we estimate error correction model using fixed effect OLS and system GMM estimators. Institutional quality and FDI are found to have bi‐directional cointegrating relationship in the long-run. However, there is no evidence in favor of short-run causality between two variables.

scholarly journals Inflation, Unemployment and NAIRU Estimate in Indonesia: Phillips Curve Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 24-32
Author(s):  
Nurul Hafnati ◽  
Sofyan Syahnur
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

The present study was carried out to analyze the relationship between inflation and unemployment in NAIRU estimate in Indonesia through Phillips curve approach during 25 years data from 1991-2016. The analysis model used in this research was Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as attempts to determine the long run and short run relationships between inflation and unemployment matters in Indonesia. The results of Granger causality test indicated two-way relationship between inflation and unemployment in Indonesia. The formulated results on long run estimate pointed out that unemployment delivered negative and significant effects on inflation. Nonetheless, Wald Test designated that there was a short run relationship between inflation and unemployment

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