scholarly journals New composite leading indicator of the Hungarian business cycle

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-501
Author(s):  
Andrea Tkáčová ◽  
Marianna Siničáková
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
To Receive

The objective of the paper is to create a composite leading indicator (CLI) for monitoring and predicting Hungarian business cycles. We compare the existing CLI applied by the OECD and Eurostat with our own CLI. According to our findings, our CLI forecasts the evolution of a referential series more precisely than the CLIs developed by the OECD and Eurostat. Nevertheless, from our point of view, the application of all existing CLIs at the same time can be appropriate. Consequently, the number of false signals should be reduced. The CLIs allow us to receive the first rough preliminary estimations of an economic cycle, in our case, the Hungarian one.

scholarly journals Economic cycle and economic consequences of the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the Czech Republic

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 01056
Author(s):  
Jolana Volejníková ◽  
Ondřej Kuba
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
The Czech Republic

Research background: The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is for human society unprecedented. Coronavirus is dramatically changing people’s lives, and despite of uncertainty about the future, it is certain that its global consequences will have many dimensions. The it is undeniable that there have been significant economic impacts are unquestionable today impacts. The Czech economy, like the rest of the world, is facing an unexpected exogenous shock. This being manifests itself with varying intensity both at the level of sub-markets and on the side of aggregate supply and demand. It is literally a textbook example, explaining the outbreak of the downturn phase of the business cycle. Nevertheless, the sudden slowdown of economic activity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, quarantine and the state of emergency, has many specificities across countries. Purpose of the article: The primary goal of this article is to analyze the economic consequences of the pandemic crisis in the reality of the Czech Republic. On this basis, it identifies the specifics of a pandemic crisis, in the context of a broader framework of economic theories of business cycles. Methods: The analytical part of the article is processed based on publicly available statistical data and economic forecasts. The derivation and argumentation of the conclusions is based on an empiric-inductive approach, methods of synthesis and comparison. Findings & Value added: The article maps the business direct and mediated economic contexts of the economic cycle caused by the coronavirus pandemic in the reality of the Czech Republic. It identifies the differences and specifics of the downward phase of the pandemic business cycle and derives their possible long-term impacts. At the theoretical level, the ambition of the article is to bring new knowledge to the contemporary economic theory of business cycles.

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

Innovation Activities and Business Cycles: Are Trademarks a Leading Indicator?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles deGrazia ◽  
Amanda Myers ◽  
Andrew A. Toole
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Innovation Activities ◽  
Leading Indicator

scholarly journals News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 993-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Franck Portier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Way Of Thinking ◽  
The Many

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established. (JEL D83, D84, E13, E32, O33)

scholarly journals ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN BANKING, CONFIDENCE SHOCKS, AND BUSINESS CYCLES

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1069-1090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott J. Dressler ◽  
Erasmus K. Kersting
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Nominal Rigidities ◽  
Equilibrium Indeterminacy ◽  
Economic Volatility ◽  
Over Time

Equilibrium indeterminacy due to economies of scale (ES) in financial intermediation is quantitatively examined in a monetary business-cycle environment. Financial intermediation provides deposits that serve as a substitute for currency to purchase consumption, and depositing decisions are susceptible to nonfundamental shocks to confidence. The analysis considers various assumptions on nominal rigidities and the timing of deposit decisions. The results suggest that indeterminacy arises for small ES, and the resulting confidence shocks qualitatively mimic monetary shocks. A calibration exercise concludes that U.S. economic volatility from this nonfundamental source has increased over time while volatility from fundamental sources has decreased.

The Statistical Groundwork of Investment Policy

1929 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-228
Author(s):  
C. M. Douglas
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Policy ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Security Values ◽  
Upward Direction ◽  
Fixed Type ◽  
To Receive

SynopsisDuring the lifetime of most Life Assurance Companies until 1897 the general trend of interest rates was downward. Such conditions proved favourable for the traditional investment policy of these years. From 1897, however, until 1920 the trend of interest rates changed to an upward direction and heavy depreciation in security values was experienced. In recent years much thought has been given to the problems of investment, and modifications in policy have been made with a view to avoiding or at least diminishing future depreciation in capital values.The principal movements in security prices are the long period trends and the short cycle variations, both of which accompany the general economic movement of all prices and can be studied in their general relationship to the economic cycle. The statistical data needful to such study, especially in this country, is very limited. Although statistics are available in America they are for the most part restricted to the two broad groups of Bond prices and Share prices, while in France the problem most dealt with is the relative movement between fixed interest securities and those having a variable dividend.A new investigation has been made in respect of the last five years and the results are given in the present Paper. The monthly movement in prices has been taken out for a variety of classes ranging from British Government securities to Industrials, and where such exist a separate index is shown for Debentures, Preference and Ordinary. The prices employed are net prices after allowing for accrued interest.As the results only show the movements of the last five years, the period covered is not a complete cycle but only the opening phase of the short period cycle. They are in no way intended to afford a solution to the various problems of movement but merely illustrate the position at the present time.The main conclusion of the Paper is that the prices of securities, like all prices, are related to the general economic cycle. While the evidence cited is in some ways contradictory, it is suggested that the movement of Ordinary securities follows directly that of the economic curve, while the movement of Debentures follows that curve inversely but with a different tempo and interval. At the same time the intermediate fluctuations of the Ordinary are of much greater extent than those of Debentures.As regards the more fixed type of investment policy in which sales of any magnitude are not contemplated, if the long period trend is downward it would appear inadvisable to enter the Ordinary field at all. On the other hand, the investments in Debentures will give complete security with steady appreciation of capital. When the long period trend is upward, however, Debentures will suffer depreciation, and to balance this a proportion of funds must be held in Ordinary Securities which in such conditions will show considerable appreciation in capital value, quite apart from an increasing yield. With a more mobile investment policy the Ordinary field deserves to receive the same considerations as the Debenture field, the profits of the Ordinary more than balancing the losses of the Debentures in a period of long period upward trend, while in a downward trend the short period cycle gives opportunity for profitable investment in both areas.

REAL BUSINESS CYCLES AFTER THREE DECADES

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 425-445
Author(s):  
Sumru Altug ◽  
Warren Young
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Panel Discussion ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Real Business Cycles ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
Time To Build ◽  
History Of ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis

The transcript of a panel discussion marking three decades of the real business cycle approach to macroeconomic analysis as manifested in Kydland and Prescott's “Time to Build” (Econometrica, 1982) and Long and Plosser's “Real Business Cycles” (Journal of Political Economy, 1983). The panel consists of Edward Prescott, Finn Kydland, Charles Plosser, John Long, Thomas Cooley, and Gary Hansen. The discussion is moderated by Sumru Altug and Warren Young. The panel touches on a wide variety of issues related to real business cycle models, including their history and methodology, starting with the work of Prescott and Kydland at Carnegie Tech and Plosser and Long at Rochester; their applications to policy; and their role in the recent financial crisis and likely future.The panel discussion was held in a session sponsored by the History of Economics Society at the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) meetings in the Randle A Room of the Manchester Grand Hyatt Hotel in San Diego, California.

scholarly journals Advertising in Video Games: Legal Qualifications

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
Irina Kiryshina
Keyword(s):  
Video Games ◽  
Computer Games ◽  
Legal Regulation ◽  
Product Placement ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Legal Analysis ◽  
Online Game ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
To Receive

The article is addressed to the legal analysis of advertising placed in video games. Topical issues of the concept of advertising are touched upon from the point of view of its compliance with the legal definition enshrined in the Federal Law "On Advertising". There has been analized the distribution of advertising in video games, such as ads embedded in game content, including "product placement". In Russian legislation, there is an analogue of this category which is defined by the legislator as “references to a product, means of its individualization, about a manufacturer or seller of a product, which are organically integrated into works of science, literature or art”. The conclusion is made about the possibility of qualifying this technique as an advertisement in the absence of a sign of "organic integration". The examples of judicial and law enforcement practice of inorganic integration are considered. In such cases, the disseminated information is recognized as advertising, in respect of which the requirements of advertising legislation regarding restrictions on advertising of tobacco and alcohol, weapons and a number of other goods must be observed. There are special requirements for video games for minors in order to protect their rights. The author presents the position regarding the qualification of targeted advertising from the point of view of its compliance with such a sign of advertising as being addressed to an indefinite group of people. The conclusion is supported by the argument that personalization of an advertising message does not exclude its qualification as an advertisement. The problem of advertising distribution in computer games, including multiplayer games, carried out via the Internet, where obtaining the preliminary consent of the online game user to receive advertising is achieved by including this condition in the user agreement, is investigated. The conclusion is made about the need to improve legal regulation in the studied field.

scholarly journals Business Cycles in Algerian Economy: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-100
Author(s):  
Abdelsalam BOUKHEROUFA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

The main objective of this paper is to highlight the most important shocks that drives the business cycles in the Algerian economy. Using Bayesian estimation techniques, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) using four time series of the Algerian macroeconomics. Through this estimated model, which succeeded in capturing the dynamics of the Algerian economy data, we found three main results: First, the main causes of business cycle fluctuations in the Algerian economy are aggregate demand shocks. Second, the of government spending shock play the most important role in output fluctuations. Third, empirical results show evidences of procyclical in government spending policies.

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