Data Reduction for Radionuclide Transport Codes Used in Performance Assessments: An Example of Simplification Process

1997 ◽  
Vol 506 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Dverstorp ◽  
B. Mendes ◽  
A. Pereira ◽  
B. Sundström

ABSTRACTThe input data required for transport models for use in long-term risk assessments of repositories for radioactive waste, in geological media, are intrinsic to the performance of the models. The flow parameters utilized in these models typically come from 2 or 3D hydro-geological calculations done in a prior phase of an assessment. This paper examines some of the standard simplifications introduced when hydrogeological data are reduced to ID as is often required for radionuclide transport models. Two key aspects of data reduction are the determination of average properties of fractured media between and along transport pathways. To quantify possible errors associated with these reduction procedures, two computer experiments have been done. We show that the use of effective flow parameters, representing the average properties of a set of independent transport pathways, in a 1 D radionuclide transport model can result in an underestimation of peak releases by one order of magnitude or more. This result is valid for short-lived nuclides whenever retardation is an important factor. On the other hand, averaging of spatially varying transport properties along a transport pathway may lead to unjustified conservatism. A simple calculation example using Monte Carlo technique, shows that a model that does not take into account spatially varying retardation properties along the transport pathways may overestimate peak release rates by several orders of magnitude. We conclude that more sophisticated transport models taking into account available hydrogeological information on spatial variability are needed to fully understand the potential errors associated with consequence calculations in the performance assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (17) ◽  
pp. 10865-10877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Xing ◽  
Rohit Mathur ◽  
Jonathan Pleim ◽  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
Jiandong Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract. Downward transport of ozone (O3) from the stratosphere can be a significant contributor to tropospheric O3 background levels. However, this process often is not well represented in current regional models. In this study, we develop a seasonally and spatially varying potential vorticity (PV)-based function to parameterize upper tropospheric and/or lower stratospheric (UTLS) O3 in a chemistry transport model. This dynamic O3–PV function is developed based on 21-year ozonesonde records from World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) with corresponding PV values from a 21-year Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation across the Northern Hemisphere from 1990 to 2010. The result suggests strong spatial and seasonal variations of O3 ∕ PV ratios which exhibits large values in the upper layers and in high-latitude regions, with highest values in spring and the lowest values in autumn over an annual cycle. The newly developed O3 ∕ PV function was then applied in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for an annual simulation of the year 2006. The simulated UTLS O3 agrees much better with observations in both magnitude and seasonality after the implementation of the new parameterization. Considerable impacts on surface O3 model performance were found in the comparison with observations from three observational networks, i.e., EMEP, CASTNET and WDCGG. With the new parameterization, the negative bias in spring is reduced from −20 to −15 % in the reference case to −9 to −1 %, while the positive bias in autumn is increased from 1 to 15 % in the reference case to 5 to 22 %. Therefore, the downward transport of O3 from upper layers has large impacts on surface concentration and needs to be properly represented in regional models.


Solar Physics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 295 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony R. Yeates

Abstract We investigate how representing active regions with bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) affects the end-of-cycle polar field predicted by the surface flux transport model. Our study is based on a new database of BMRs derived from the SDO/HMI active region patch data between 2010 and 2020. An automated code is developed for fitting each active region patch with a BMR, matching both the magnetic flux and axial dipole moment of the region and removing repeat observations of the same region. By comparing the predicted evolution of each of the 1090 BMRs with the predicted evolution of their original active region patches, we show that the bipolar approximation leads to a 24% overestimate of the net axial dipole moment, given the same flow parameters. This is caused by neglecting the more complex multipolar and/or asymmetric magnetic structures of many of the real active regions, and may explain why previous flux transport models had to reduce BMR tilt angles to obtain realistic polar fields. Our BMR database and the Python code to extract it are freely available.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Xing ◽  
Rohit Mathur ◽  
Jonathan Pleim ◽  
Christian Hogrefe ◽  
Jiandong Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract. Downward transport of ozone (O3) from the stratosphere can be a significant contributor to tropospheric O3 background levels. However, this process often is not well represented in current regional models. In this study, we develop a seasonally and spatially varying potential vorticity (PV)-based function to numerically assimilate upper tropospheric / lower stratospheric (UTLS) O3 in a chemistry transport model. This dynamic O3-PV function is parametrized based on 21-year ozonesonde records from World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) with corresponding PV values from a 21-year Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation across the northern hemisphere from 1990 to 2010. The result suggests strong spatial and seasonal variations of O3/PV ratios which exhibits large values in the upper layers and in high latitude regions, with highest values in spring and the lowest values in autumn over an annual cycle. The newly-developed O3/PV function was then applied in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for an annual simulation of the year 2006. The simulated UTLS O3 agrees much better with observations in both magnitude and seasonality after the implementation of the new function. Considerable impacts on surface O3 model performance were found in the comparison with observations from three observational networks, i.e., EMEP, CASTNET and WDCGG. With the new function, the negative bias in spring is reduced from −20 to −15 % in the reference case to −9 to −1 %, while the positive bias in autumn is increased from 1 to 15 % in the reference case to 5 to 22 %. Therefore, the downward transport of O3 from upper layers has large impacts on surface concentration and needs to be properly represented in regional models.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 8823-8855 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Bian ◽  
P. Colarco ◽  
M. Chin ◽  
G. Chen ◽  
A. R. Douglass ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present analysis of simulations using the NASA GEOS-5 chemistry and transport model to quantify contributions from different continents to the Western Arctic pollution, to investigate pollution sources and to identify transport pathways. We compare DC-8 airborne measurements of CO, SO2, BC and SO4 from the NASA Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) field campaigns (spring and summer, 2008) and observations from the AIRS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite to demonstrate the strengths and limitations of our simulations and to support this application of the model. Comparisons of measurements along the flight tracks with regional averages show that the along-track measurements are representative of the region in April but not in July. Our simulations show that most Arctic pollutants are due to Asian anthropogenic emissions during April. Boreal biomass burning emissions and Asian anthropogenic emissions are of similar importance in July. European sources make little contribution to pollution in the campaign domain during either period. The most prevalent transport pathway of the tracers is from Asia to the Arctic in both April and July, with the transport efficiency stronger in spring than in summer.


2013 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 232-242
Author(s):  
Ian H. Halket ◽  
Peter F. Rasmussen ◽  
John C. Doering

One-dimensional substance transport models assume that the river reach modelled has a uniform cross-sectional shape which manifests as a constant average velocity in the model equations. Rarely do rivers meet this criterion. Their channels are seldom uniform in shape but rather alternate in a quasi-periodic manner between pool and riffle sections. This bedform sequencing imparts a corresponding variation in the average cross-sectional velocity which is not accounted for in constant velocity transport models. The literature points out that the pool and riffle planform may be the reason for the sometimes poor predictions obtained from these models. This paper presents a new variable velocity transport model and confirms that the fluctuation in average cross-sectional velocity caused by the pool and riffle planform does have a marked effect on transport in rivers. The pool and riffle planform promotes an enhanced decay of a substance when a first-order biochemical reaction is simulated with the new transport equation. Investigation of the analytical solution shows that the enhanced decay is the result of the overall lower velocity experienced in a pool and riffle channel as opposed to a uniform channel. This difference in transport velocity between a pool and riffle channel and a uniform channel becomes more pronounced as flow declines a critical finding for total maximum daily load calculations because these regulatory limits are usually determined for low flow levels by models that do not account for this phenomenon.


Author(s):  
Scott D. Chambers ◽  
Elise-Andree Guérette ◽  
Khalia Monk ◽  
Alan D. Griffiths ◽  
Yang Zhang ◽  
...  

We propose a new technique to prepare statistically-robust benchmarking data for evaluating chemical transport model meteorology and air quality parameters within the urban boundary layer. The approach employs atmospheric class-typing, using nocturnal radon measurements to assign atmospheric mixing classes, and can be applied temporally (across the diurnal cycle), or spatially (to create angular distributions of pollutants as a top-down constraint on emissions inventories). In this study only a short (<1-month) campaign is used, but grouping of the relative mixing classes based on nocturnal mean radon concentrations can be adjusted according to dataset length (i.e., number of days per category), or desired range of within-class variability. Calculating hourly distributions of observed and simulated values across diurnal composites of each class-type helps to: (i) bridge the gap between scales of simulation and observation, (ii) represent the variability associated with spatial and temporal heterogeneity of sources and meteorology without being confused by it, and (iii) provide an objective way to group results over whole diurnal cycles that separates ‘natural complicating factors’ (synoptic non-stationarity, rainfall, mesoscale motions, extreme stability, etc.) from problems related to parameterizations, or between-model differences. We demonstrate the utility of this technique using output from a suite of seven contemporary regional forecast and chemical transport models. Meteorological model skill varied across the diurnal cycle for all models, with an additional dependence on the atmospheric mixing class that varied between models. From an air quality perspective, model skill regarding the duration and magnitude of morning and evening “rush hour” pollution events varied strongly as a function of mixing class. Model skill was typically the lowest when public exposure would have been the highest, which has important implications for assessing potential health risks in new and rapidly evolving urban regions, and also for prioritizing the areas of model improvement for future applications.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Ostler ◽  
Ralf Sussmann ◽  
Prabir K. Patra ◽  
Sander Houweling ◽  
Marko De Bruine ◽  
...  

Abstract. The distribution of methane (CH4) in the stratosphere can be a major driver of spatial variability in the dry-air column-averaged CH4 mixing ratio (XCH4), which is being measured increasingly for the assessment of CH4 surface emissions. Chemistry-transport models (CTMs) therefore need to simulate the tropospheric and stratospheric fractional columns of XCH4 accurately for estimating surface emissions from XCH4. Simulations from three CTMs are tested against XCH4 observations from the Total Carbon Column Network (TCCON). We analyze how the model-TCCON agreement in XCH4 depends on the model representation of stratospheric CH4 distributions. Model equivalents of TCCON XCH4 are computed with stratospheric CH4 fields from both the model simulations and from satellite-based CH4 distributions from MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) and MIPAS CH4 fields adjusted to ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer) observations. In comparison to simulated model fields we find an improved model-TCCON XCH4 agreement for all models with MIPAS-based stratospheric CH4 fields. For the Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model (ACTM) the average XCH4 bias is significantly reduced from 38.1 ppb to 13.7 ppb, whereas small improvements are found for the models TM5 (Transport Model, version 5; from 8.7 ppb to 4.3 ppb), and LMDz (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability; from 6.8 ppb to 4.3 ppb), respectively. MIPAS stratospheric CH4 fields adjusted to ACE-FTS reduce the average XCH4 bias for ACTM (3.3 ppb), but increase the average XCH4 bias for TM5 (10.8 ppb) and LMDz (20.0 ppb). These findings imply that the range of satellite-based stratospheric CH4 is insufficient to resolve a possible stratospheric contribution to differences in total column CH4 between TCCON and TM5 or LMDz. Applying transport diagnostics to the models indicates that model-to-model differences in the simulation of stratospheric transport, notably the age of stratospheric air, can largely explain the inter-model spread in stratospheric CH4 and, hence, its contribution to XCH4. This implies that there is a need to better understand the impact of individual model transport components (e.g., physical parameterization, meteorological data sets, model horizontal/vertical resolution) on modeled stratospheric CH4.


Author(s):  
Muhammad A. R. Sharif ◽  
Yat-Kit E. Wong

Abstract The performance of a nonlinear k-ϵ turbulence closure model (NKEM), in the prediction of isothermal incompressible turbulent flows, is compared with that of the stress transport models such as the differential Reynolds stress transport model (RSTM) and the algebraic stress transport model (ASTM). Fully developed turbulent pipe flow and confined turbulent swirling flow with a central non-swirling jet are numerically predicted using the Marker and Cell (MAC) finite difference method. Comparison of the prediction with the experiment show that all three models perform reasonably well for the pipe flow problem. For the swirling flow problem, the RSTM and ASTM is superior than the NKEM. RSTM and ASTM provide good agreement with measured mean velocity profiles. However, the turbulent stresses are over- or under-predicted. NKEM performs badly in prediction of mean velocity as well as the turbulent stresses.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Kaszubowski

The article presents a method which helps local authorities to evaluate urban freight transport models. Given the complex requirements for input data and the inability to supply them for most cities, a proper quantitative evaluation of model functionality may be quite difficult for local authorities. Freight transport models designed to support sustainable urban freight transport objectives are a particular example. To overcome these difficulties, the structure of the method is based on a qualitative analysis of strategic and operational conditions of urban freight management for modelling purposes. A consistent set of criteria is developed to help with parameterising strategic objectives and the analytical requirements of tools to achieve those objectives. The problems of data availability and capture are also included. The method consists of three tiers that are arranged hierarchically to reflect the interrelations. The proposed method was verified against Gdynia’s (Poland) urban freight management requirements. The city was chosen for its early experience of urban freight studies and improvement measures and because it has already defined its strategic objectives. Two comprehensive freight transport models (Freturb and Wiver) and existing city’s transport model were evaluated. The results have ruled out the existing transport model rendering it ineffective as a tool to support urban freight management to meet the city’s strategic objectives. While Freturb turned out to be much better suited for the needs, dedicated models still face a basic barrier of cities having to redesign their systems for collecting urban transport data.


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