Predicting Future Changes in Muskegon River Watershed Game Fish Distributions under Future Land Cover Alteration and Climate Change Scenarios

This paper evaluates the response of streamflow in a Mediterranean medium-scaled basin under land-use and climate change scenarios and its plausible implication on the management of Boadella–Darnius reservoir (NE Spain). Land cover and climate change scenarios supposed over the next several decades were used to simulate reservoir inflow using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESsys) and to analyze the future impacts on water management (2021–2050). Results reveal a clear decrease in dam inflow (−34%) since the dam was operational from 1971 to 2013. The simulations obtained with RHESsys show a similar decrease (−31%) from 2021 to 2050. Considering the ecological minimum flow outlined by water authorities and the projected decrease in reservoir’s inflows, different water management strategies are needed to mitigate the effects of the expected climate change.

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Hydrologic sensitivity of the Upper San Joaquin River Watershed in California to climate change scenarios

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2012.441 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 44 (4) ◽

pp. 723-736 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Zili He ◽

Zhi Wang ◽

C. John Suen ◽

Xiaoyi Ma

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sierra Nevada ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Hydrological Simulation ◽

River Watershed ◽

System Sensitivity ◽

Hspf Model ◽

San Joaquin River ◽

San Joaquin River Watershed

To examine the hydrological system sensitivity of the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains of California to climate change scenarios (CCS), five headwater basins in the snow-dominated Upper San Joaquin River Watershed (USJRW) were selected for hydrologic simulations using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. A pre-specified set of CCS as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were adopted as inputs for the hydrologic analysis. These scenarios include temperature increases between 1.5 and 4.5 °C and precipitation variation between 80 and 120% of the baseline conditions. The HSPF model was calibrated and validated with measured historical data. It was then used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the watershed to the projected CCS. Results indicate that the streamflow of USJRW is sensitive to the projected climate change. The total volume of annual streamflow would vary between −41 and +16% compared to the baseline years (1970–1990). Even if the precipitation remains unchanged, the total annual flow would still decrease by 8–23% due to temperature increases. A larger portion of the streamflow would occur earlier in the water year by 15–46 days due to the temperature increases, causing higher seasonal variability of streamflow.

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Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli8120139 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 139

Author(s):

Manashi Paul ◽

Sijal Dangol ◽

Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽

Amy R. Sapkota ◽

Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Swat Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Watershed ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

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The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11247083 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (24) ◽

pp. 7083 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Kristian Näschen ◽

Bernd Diekkrüger ◽

Mariele Evers ◽

Britta Höllermann ◽

Stefanie Steinbach ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Water Balance ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

The Impact

Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.

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Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and land-use dynamics on water resources: The case of the Lobo River watershed: Central-Western Côte d'Ivoire

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-506 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Berenger Koffi ◽

Zilé Alex Kouadio ◽

Affoué Berthe Yao ◽

Kouakou Hervé Kouassi ◽

Martin Sanchez Angulo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Watershed ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Meeting growing water needs in a context of increasing scarcity of resources due to climate change and changes in land use is a major challenge for developing countries in the coming years. The watershed of the Lobo river in Nib&#233;hib&#233; does not escape this dilemma. The water retention of the Lobo River and its watershed play an important role in the subsistence of the inhabitants of the region. However, the watershed is currently subject to strong human pressures mainly associated with the constant increase in human population and intensification of agricultural activities. The main objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Lobo River watershed at Nib&#233;hib&#233; in the central-western part of C&#244;te d'Ivoire. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were established using the regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre atmospheric model 4) and the flows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU with respect to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCA4 regional model predicts an increase of 1.27&#176; C; 2.58&#176; C in the horizon 2021-2040 and 2051-2070 in mean annual temperature. Rainfall would also experience a significant average annual decrease of about 6.51% and 11.15% over the period 2021-2040 and 2041-2070. As for the evolution of flows, the Cequeau model predicts a decrease in the runoff and infiltration of water on the horizon 2021-2040 and an increase in evapotranspiration over time according to the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the model predicts an increase in runoff at the expense of a decrease in REE and infiltration at the horizon 2040-2070 according to scenario RCP8.5. It appears from this study that surface flows and infiltrations, which constitute the water resources available to meet the water needs of the basin's populations, will be the most affected. The results obtained in this study are important and could contribute to guide decision making for sustainable water resource management.

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Simulation of watershed hydrology and stream water quality under land use and climate change scenarios in Teshio River watershed, northern Japan

Ecological Indicators ◽

10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.11.003 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 50 ◽

pp. 79-89 ◽

Cited By ~ 90

Author(s):

Min Fan ◽

Hideaki Shibata

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

Land Use ◽

Stream Water ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Watershed Hydrology ◽

Stream Water Quality ◽

River Watershed ◽

Northern Japan

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Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-370-21-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 370 ◽

pp. 21-27 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

P. Skougaard Kaspersen ◽

N. Høegh Ravn ◽

K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽

H. Madsen ◽

M. Drews

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Cover ◽

High Intensity ◽

Overland Flow ◽

Urban Land ◽

Land Cover Changes ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

European Cities ◽

Urban Land Cover ◽

Pluvial Flooding

Abstract. The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

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Estimation of emission from organic soils

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6451 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sergiy Stepanenko ◽

Anatoliy Polevoy ◽

Alexander Mykytiuk

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Remote Sensing ◽

Land Cover ◽

Soil Carbon ◽

Input Data ◽

Carbon Deposition ◽

Organic Soils ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Space Images ◽

Soil System

Dynamic modeling of the processes of transformation of soil organic matter is part of a more complex problem - modeling the processes of soil formation and functioning of soils, and the development of the entire soil system. It is important tool for studying the functioning and predicting changes in the soil system, quantifying the role of the soil cover in the balance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and in the processes of climate changeThe PEAT-GHG-Model (furthermore &#8211; PEAT-GHG-MODEL), based on further development of ROTHC-model (Coleman, Jenkinson, 2008) for mineral soil and ECOSSE model (Smith, Gottschalk et al., 2010) for organic soils.&#160;The PEAT-GHG-MODEL evaluates of CO2, CH4, N2O fluxes values at organic soils and soil carbon deposition for non-forest types of land cover. The model utilize data from existing weather stations, published soil data, and data generated by remote sensing of land cover. The model evaluates of CO2, CH4, N2O fluxes values at organic soils and soil carbon deposition, including at peatlands, retrospectively for targeted period or back in time with available space images library. The model can evaluates of CO2, CH4, N2O fluxes values at organic soils and soil carbon deposition for future period based on meteorological input data generated by climate change scenarios and land cover data generated by relevant habitats (land cover) change scenarios. The PEAT-GHG-MODEL estimates of CO2, CH4, N2O fluxes from organic soils and soil carbon deposition for non-forest types of land cover. The model input data generates by existing weather stations, remote sensing of land cover and published soils data. The model estimates of GHG emissions from organic soils, including peatlands, retrospectively for targeted period or back in time with available space images library. The model can simulates of GHG emissions for future period based on meteorological input data generated by climate change scenarios and land cover data generated by relevant habitats change scenarios. The model generates georeferenced data. Minimum land surface area, which can be evaluates by model, equal of size of one pixel of land cover images, used for remote sensing of land cover, it can be 1 m2 or less. Due to high resolution, the model estimates highly variable in space CO2, CH4, N2O fluxes with high accuracy. Maximum land surface area is not limited. The model generates data on decade and/or annual bases. Article presents the model&#8217; verification results. The model verified in 2017 by independent, from the model authors, verification team in frame of &#8220;CLIMA EAST: conservation and sustainable use of peatlands&#8221; project (UNDP-Ukraine). Direct field measurement data for two peatlands used for model verification, including one site drained, and another one is under natural hydrological conditions.&#160; The cumulative annual of CH4 and CO2 emission presented in Table.The model calculations were compared with the experimental data obtained for peat soils in the western Polesie of Belarus. The cumulative annual of CH4 and CO2 emission presented in Table.Table. Cumulative annual of CH4 and CO2 emissions according to field measurements and assessment of PEAT-GHG-MODEL<img src="https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/fileStorageProxy.php?f=gepj.ccbf8aaeedff56227740161/sdaolpUECMynit/12UGE&app=m&a=0&c=482eb671aeb385948d36c48791670031&ct=x&pn=gepj.elif&d=1" alt="" width="906" height="718">&#160;<div> <div>&#160;</div> </div>

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Effect of multiple climate change scenarios and predicted land-cover on soil erosion: a way forward for the better land management

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment ◽

10.1007/s10661-021-09559-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 193 (11) ◽

Author(s):

Bilal Aslam ◽

Umer Khalil ◽

Maryam Saleem ◽

Ahsen Maqsoom ◽

Emadullah Khan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Management ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

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The impact of climate change and land use/land cover change on water resources in a data-scarce catchment in Tanzania

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9287 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kristian Näschen ◽

Bernd Diekkrüger ◽

Mariele Evers ◽

Britta Höllermann ◽

Larisa S. Seregina ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Climate Change Signal ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Data Scarcity ◽

South Central ◽

Hot Dry Season ◽

The Impact

The Kilombero catchment is a meso-scale catchment of 40,240 km&#178; in south central Tanzania and is characterized by overall data scarcity like many other African catchments. The catchment consists of a highly dynamic floodplain system at its centre which is sustained by water from the surrounding uplands. It also contains a Ramsar site giving evidence to its valuable ecosystem and importance concerning biodiversity conservation. However, in the last decades land use and land cover changes (LULCC) accelerated drastically towards an agriculturally-shaped landscape, especially at the fringes of the wetland. The wetland system provides fertile soils, water as well as other water-related ecosystem services. Nevertheless, the increasing pressure on natural resources jeopardizes the sustainability of the socio-ecological system, especially in the face of climate change.&#160;In this study, methods of hydrology, meteorology and remote sensing were used to overcome data-scarcity and gather a sound representation of natural processes in the catchment. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to represent the hydrological processes in the catchment. We utilized Landsat images from several decades to simulate the impact of LULCC from the 1970s until today. Furthermore, we applied the Land Change Modeller (LCM) to simulate potential LULCC until 2030 and their impact on water resources. To account for climatic changes, a regional climate model ensemble of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa project was analysed and bias-corrected to investigate changes in climatic patterns until 2060, according to the RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios.&#160;The climate change signal indicates rising temperatures, especially in the hot dry season, which reinforces the special features of this season. However, the changes in precipitation signals among the analysed RCMs vary between -8.3% and +22.5% of the annual mean values. The results of the hydrological modelling also show heterogeneous spatial patterns within the catchment area. LULCC simulation results show a 6-8% decrease in low flows for the LULCC scenarios, while high flows increase by up to 84% for combined LULCC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is more pronounced compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. This study exemplarily quantifies the impact of LULCC and climate change in a data-scarce catchment and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes and determines hot spots, which are crucial for more detailed analyses like hydrodynamic modelling. The information from this study are an essential part to assist local stakeholders protecting the wetlands integrity on the one hand and to ensure sustainable agricultural practices in order to guarantee food security on the other hand in a catchment that has already changed tremendously and is still target to manifold future plans.

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