scholarly journals Delay in death reporting affects timely monitoring and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Abreu de Carvalho ◽  
Vitória Abreu de Carvalho ◽  
Marcos Adriano Garcia Campos ◽  
Bruno Luciano Carneiro Alves de Oliveira ◽  
Eduardo Moraes Diniz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Hierarchical Model ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
State Health ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City ◽  
Reporting Delay ◽  
Death Data

This study describes the COVID-19 death reporting delay in the city of São Luís, Maranhão State, Brazil, and shows its impact on timely monitoring and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic, while seeking to ascertain how nowcasting can improve death reporting delay. We analyzed COVID-19 death data reported daily in the Epidemiological Bulletin of the State Health Secretariat of Maranhão and calculated the reporting delay from March 23 to August 29, 2020. A semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model was fitted to illustrate the impact of death reporting delay and test the effectiveness of a Bayesian Nowcasting in improving data quality. Only 17.8% of deaths were reported without delay or the day after, while 40.5% were reported more than 30 days late. Following an initial underestimation due to reporting delay, 644 deaths were reported from June 7 to August 29, although only 116 deaths occurred during this period. Using the Bayesian nowcasting technique partially improved the quality of mortality data during the peak of the pandemic, providing estimates that better matched the observed scenario in the city, becoming unusable nearly two months after the peak. As delay in death reporting can directly interfere with assertive and timely decision-making regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, the Brazilian epidemiological surveillance system must be urgently revised and notifying the date of death must be mandatory. Nowcasting has proven somewhat effective in improving the quality of mortality data, but only at the peak of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Investigation of ill-defined causes of death: assessment of a program's performance in a State from the Northeastern region of Brazil

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Barboza França ◽  
Carolina Cândida da Cunha ◽  
Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos ◽  
Juan José Cortez Escalante ◽  
Daisy Xavier de Abreu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Professionals ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Family Health ◽  
Completion Rate ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Hospital Records ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
Probabilistic Sample

OBJECTIVE: The proportion of ill-defined causes of death (IDCD) was persistently high in some regions of Brazil in 2004. In 2005, the Brazilian government implemented a project in order to decrease this proportion, especially in higher priority states and municipalities. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of this project in Alagoas - a state from the Northeast region of Brazil. METHOD: We selected a probabilistic sample of 18 municipalities. For all IDCD identified in 2010, we collected the verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaires used for home investigation, and the Ministry of Health (MoH) form, which contains information about the final disease and cause of death taken from hospital records, autopsies, family health teams, and civil registry office records. The completion rate of the MoH form and VA was calculated using the number of deaths with specific causes assigned among investigated deaths. RESULTS: A total of 681 IDCD were recorded in 2010 in the sample, of which 26% had a MoH and/or VA3 forms completed. Although the majority of cases were attended by health professionals during the terminal disease, the completion rate was 45% using the MoH form and 80% when VA was performed. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence that the training of the epidemiological surveillance teams in the investigation and certification of causes of death could contribute to improve the quality of mortality data.

scholarly journals Temperature, Disease, and Death in London: Analyzing Weekly Data for the Century from 1866 to 1965

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-41
Author(s):  
W. Walker Hanlon ◽  
Casper Worm Hansen ◽  
Jake Kantor
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Infant Deaths ◽  
Digestive Diseases ◽  
Late Nineteenth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Using novel weekly mortality data for London spanning 1866-1965, we analyze the changing relationship between temperature and mortality as the city developed. Our main results show that warm weeks led to elevated mortality in the late nineteenth century, mainly due to infant deaths from digestive diseases. However, this pattern largely disappeared after WWI as infant digestive diseases became less prevalent. The resulting change in the temperature-mortality relationship meant that thousands of heat-related deaths—equal to 0.9-1.4 percent of all deaths— were averted. These findings show that improving the disease environment can dramatically alter the impact of high temperature on mortality.

scholarly journals Measuring spatial allocative efficiency in basketball

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-289
Author(s):  
Nathan Sandholtz ◽  
Jacob Mortensen ◽  
Luke Bornn
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Allocative Efficiency ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Model ◽  
National Basketball Association ◽  
Spatial Context ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEvery shot in basketball has an opportunity cost; one player’s shot eliminates all potential opportunities from their teammates for that play. For this reason, player-shot efficiency should ultimately be considered relative to the lineup. This aspect of efficiency—the optimal way to allocate shots within a lineup—is the focus of our paper. Allocative efficiency should be considered in a spatial context since the distribution of shot attempts within a lineup is highly dependent on court location. We propose a new metric for spatial allocative efficiency by comparing a player’s field goal percentage (FG%) to their field goal attempt (FGA) rate in context of both their four teammates on the court and the spatial distribution of their shots. Leveraging publicly available data provided by the National Basketball Association (NBA), we estimate player FG% at every location in the offensive half court using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Then, by ordering a lineup’s estimated FG%s and pairing these rankings with the lineup’s empirical FGA rate rankings, we detect areas where the lineup exhibits inefficient shot allocation. Lastly, we analyze the impact that sub-optimal shot allocation has on a team’s overall offensive potential, demonstrating that inefficient shot allocation correlates with reduced scoring.

scholarly journals Social Perception and Urbanscape Identity of Flagship Cultural Developments in Szczecin (in the Re-Urbanization Context)

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 398
Author(s):  
Eliza Sochacka ◽  
Magdalena Rzeszotarska-Pałka
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Social Perception ◽  
Local Identity ◽  
Functional Complexity ◽  
Questionnaire Surveys ◽  
Urban Strategy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City ◽  
Cultural Developments

A growing number of urban interventions, such as culture-led regeneration strategies, has emerged alongside growing awareness of the concept of re-urbanization. These interventions evolve to create a holistic urban vision, with aims to promote social cohesion and strengthen local identity as opposed to traditional goals of measuring the economic impact of new cultural developments. Szczecin’s, Poland urban strategy is focused on the expansion of culture—a condition for improving the quality of life and increasing the city’s attractiveness. This article assesses the potential for re-urbanization of Szczecin’s flagship cultural developments. Questionnaire surveys and qualitative research methods were used to assess the characteristics that distinguish cultural projects in the formal, location-related, functional, and symbolic layers, as well as examining their social perception. The results show that the strength of these indicators of urbanscape identity affects how the cultural developments are assessed by the society. Semiotic coherence and functional complexity of the structures have a significant impact on the sense of identification, while their monumentality and exposure contribute to the assessment of the impact on their surroundings. A development with a firm identity, embedded in the city’s tradition not only preserves the cultural heritage of the city but also makes inhabitants feel association with the new project.

scholarly journals On the use of real-time reported mortality data in modelling and analysis during an epidemic outbreak

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 128
Author(s):  
Per Liljenberg
Keyword(s):  
Standard Procedure ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Mathematical Relationship ◽  
Infected People ◽  
True Number ◽  
Reporting Delay ◽  
Death Data ◽  
Death Date

Background: For diseases like Covid-19, where it has been difficult to identify the true number of infected people, or where the number of known cases is heavily influenced by the number of tests performed, hospitalizations and deaths play a significant role in understanding the epidemic and in determining the appropriate response. However, the Covid-19 deaths data reported by some countries display a significant weekly variability, which can make the interpretation and use of the death data in analysis and modeling difficult. Methods: We derive the mathematical relationship between the series of new daily deaths by reporting date and the series of deaths by death date. We then apply this formalism to the corresponding time-series reported by Sweden during the Covid-19 pandemic. Results: The practice of reporting new deaths daily, as is standard procedure during an outbreak in most countries and regions, should be viewed as a time-dependent filter, modulating the underlying true death curve. After having characterized the Swedish reporting process, we show how smoothing of the Swedish reported daily deaths series results in a curve distinctly different from the true death curve. We also comment on the use of nowcasting methods. Conclusions: Modelers and analysts using the series of new daily deaths by reporting date should take extra care when it is highly variable and when there is a significant reporting delay. It might be appropriate to instead use the series of deaths by death date combined with a nowcasting algorithm as basis for their analysis.

scholarly journals The impact of service quality on the viability of start-up businesses

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeleke Worku
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Municipal Services ◽  
Validated Questionnaire ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

A 3-year long survey was conducted in the Tshwane geographical region of Gauteng Province in South Africa in order to identify and quantify key predictors of adequate municipal services that are routinely provided to customers who operate newly established small businesses in the City of Tshwane, Pretoria, South Africa. Data was collected by using a structured, pre-tested and validated questionnaire of study from a stratified random sample of size 1, 058 small businesses. The key objective of study was to assess the relationship between viability in small businesses and the provision of quality municipal services by the City of Tshwane. The study was conducted against the background of a high failure rate among newly established small businesses in the City of Tshwane. The study was conducted over a 3-year period (2012 to 2014). Data was collected monthly during the three-year period of study on socioeconomic variables that are known to affect the perception of business operators on the quality of municipal services to business operators and the general public. Statistical procedures such as cross-tab analyses, panel data analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and Bayesian methods were used for estimating parameters. The study showed that there was a significant association between positive perception of business operators on the quality of municipal services provided to them and viability of businesses. The results showed that 87% of viable businesses were satisfied with the quality of routine municipal services that were provided to them by the City of Tshwane. The corresponding figure for non-viable businesses was only 14%. The viability of businesses was significantly influenced by 3 predictor variables. These predictor variables were: lack of capacity for fulfilling the business and entrepreneurial needs of newly established businesses [Hazard Ratio = 3.58; P=0.000; 95% C. I. = (1.45, 5.46)], inappropriate policy [Hazard Ratio = 3.19; P=0.000; 95% C. I. = (1.39, 5.28)], and lack of tailor made training programmes directed at newly established small businesses [Hazard Ratio = 2.89; P=0.000; 95% C. I. = (1.24, 4.77)], in a decreasing order of strength. Similar findings were obtained from the analyses of in-depth interviews.

The war against the homeless: Frank Jordan, broken windows, and anti-homeless politics in San Francisco

2019 ◽  
pp. 63-81
Author(s):  
Sean Parson
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Public Space ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Broken Windows ◽  
The Public ◽  
Matrix Quality ◽  
Physical Spaces ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Chapter 4 discusses Mayor Frank Jordan’s (1992–1995) revanchist Matrix Quality of Life Program, which sought to enforce a broken-windows policing system in San Francisco. The impact of the policy was felt largely by the visible homeless in downtown San Francisco, who were regularly harassed and arrested by the police and forced out of the city. Because quality-of-life policing desires to sanitize the public space of disruptive and asocial behaviour, the public meals of Food Not Bombs near City Hall resisted the city’s attempt to criminalize homelessness. This chapter argues that the city attempted to construct the homeless as anti-citizens and exclude them from the political and physical spaces of the city.

scholarly journals Impacts of Physical Environment Perception on the Frailty Condition in Older People

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Mena ◽  
Yony Ormazabal ◽  
Eduardo Fuentes ◽  
Iván Palomo
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Physical Environment ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Physical Environments ◽  
Geographic Clustering ◽  
Environment Perception ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Frailty increases the vulnerability of older people who commonly develop a syndrome leading to growing dependence and finally often death. Physical environment conditions may affect the severity of the syndrome positive or negatively. The main objective of this study was to analyse the conditions of different urban physical environments and their relationship with the frailty syndrome in older people. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analyses were performed to detect global and local geographic clustering. Investigating 284 adults with ages from 60 to 74 years old from Talca City, Chile, we found spatial clustering of frailty conditions registered for older people, with hotspots of high and low values associated with areas of different urban infrastructures and socioeconomic levels into the city. The spatial identifications found should facilitate exploring the impact of mental health programmes in communities exposed to disasters like earthquakes, thereby improving their quality of life as well as reducing overall costs. Spatial correlation has a great potential for studying frailty conditions in older people with regard to better understanding the impact of environmental conditions on health.

scholarly journals El impacto de la valoración de la importancia en la evaluación de la calidad de vida en adolescentes chilenos

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 723
Author(s):  
Alfonso Urzúa ◽  
Alejandra Caqueo-Urízar ◽  
María Fernanda Bravo ◽  
Karen Carvajal ◽  
Claudio Vera
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Self Report ◽  
State Universities ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
The North ◽  
Calidad De Vida ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

While self-report of overall quality of life has been widely examined, there are no studies that explore the impact of the relative importance people give to the various categories of their quality of life. Therefore, with a quantitative methodology and a co-relational transverse design, we analyze differences in the assessment when the importance given to each category is evaluated. Participants were 530 students from the city of Antofagasta in the North of Chile, aged between 15 and 18 years. They were from subsidized, public secondary schools and private and state universities in the city who were assessed using the KIDSCREEN-27 questionnaire. Results: Differences were found in the assessment of categories when results were analyzed based on gender and age and when incorporating an assessment of importance. Even when the results were not conclusive, there was evidence of a need to incorporate an importance variable when assessing quality of life.

scholarly journals The Effects of Gentrification on the Elderly: A Case Study in the City of Cáceres

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 154
Author(s):  
Lidia Domínguez-Parraga
Keyword(s):  
Social Space ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Social And Emotional ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

This study aims to analyze the consequences of the gentrification process as a result of tourism on the elderly inhabitants. Firstly, the concept of gentrification is reviewed, a process that is no longer exclusive to large cities but has spread to smaller and lesser-known municipalities. A clear example of this type of new tourist destination is the city of Cáceres, a World Heritage medium-sized city where tourism is the basis of its economy. The research considers gentrification in medium-sized cities and its effect on active aging. Based on a qualitative methodological approach, a total of 32 in-depth interviews were conducted and analyzed to compare two neighborhoods—one gentrified and one not. The results show a remarkable disparity in the residents’ perceptions of their environment and their city. The findings suggest adverse effects on the quality of aging due to the gentrification process, such as family dependency, social-space disconnection, and a generally pessimistic image of the neighborhood. Consequently, the impact of tourism negatively affects the gentrified neighborhood inhabitants’ psychological, social, and emotional well-being.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document