scholarly journals Spatio-temporal analysis of leptospirosis in Eastern Amazon, State of Pará, Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Arcoverde Cerveira ◽  
Luan Oliveira Ferreira ◽  
Edwiges de Fátima de Oliveira ◽  
Hanna Katharine dos Santos Felipe ◽  
Marcelli Carolini Alves Almeida ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
The State ◽  
Time Study ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Lower Population ◽  
Access Data ◽  
Lower Population Density

ABSTRACT: Introduction: Brazil has registered more than 62,000 confirmed cases of leptospirosis between 2001 and 2017, with more than 2,000 cases confirmed in the State of Pará. Despite a large number of cases, no study has been conducted to trace the spatio-temporal profile of the disease. Methodology: Confirmed cases of leptospirosis from 2001 to 2017 from the state of Pará were the basis for this space-time study. The database of the Department of Informatics of the Ministry of Health was used to access data on leptospirosis. The spatio-temporal analysis was performed in the SaTScan software for the detection of clusters, and maps were generated in the QGIS software. Results: The municipalities of Belém and Santarém were among the ones with the highest incidence rates of leptospirosis for the whole study period. Increased number of cases in Soure, Inhangapi, São João da Ponta and Magalhães Barata, Ponta de Pedras, Breves, Bragança, Castanhal, and São Domingos do Capim were identified in different time periods. Santarém and Belém are the main foci of leptospirosis because they are the most urbanized and densely populated municipalities in the State. The cases found in smaller municipalities may be associated with periods of more frequent rainfall and circulation of Leptospira sp. in marsupials and cattle, in the northeastern part of the State. Conclusion: Further studies are needed to help identify the risk factors that contribute to the occurrence of leptospirosis in the State of Pará, particularly in areas with lower population density.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2019-nCoV Epidemic at the County Level in Hubei Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2563 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wentao Yang ◽  
Min Deng ◽  
Chaokui Li ◽  
Jincai Huang
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
County Level ◽  
Spatial Clusters ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics or patterns of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic is critical in effectively preventing and controlling this epidemic. However, no research analyzed the spatial dependency and temporal dynamics of 2019-nCoV. Consequently, this research aims to detect the spatio-temporal patterns of the 2019-nCoV epidemic using spatio-temporal analysis methods at the county level in Hubei province. The Mann–Kendall and Pettitt methods were used to identify the temporal trends and abrupt changes in the time series of daily new confirmed cases, respectively. The local Moran’s I index was applied to uncover the spatial patterns of the incidence rate, including spatial clusters and outliers. On the basis of the data from January 26 to February 11, 2020, we found that there were 11 areas with different types of temporal patterns of daily new confirmed cases. The pattern characterized by an increasing trend and abrupt change is mainly attributed to the improvement in the ability to diagnose the disease. Spatial clusters with high incidence rates during the period were concentrated in Wuhan Metropolitan Area due to the high intensity of spatial interaction of the population. Therefore, enhancing the ability to diagnose the disease and controlling the movement of the population can be confirmed as effective measures to prevent and control the regional outbreak of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Multiple Sclerosis incidence rate in southern Iran: A Bayesian epidemiological study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naeimehossadat Asmarian ◽  
Zahra Sharafi ◽  
Amin Mousavi ◽  
Reis Jacques ◽  
Ibon Tamayo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Vitamin D ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Vitamin D Supplementation ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Fars Province ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) remains to be a public health challenge, due to its unknown biological mechanisms and clinical impacts on young people. The prevalence of this disease in Iran is reported to be 5.30 to 74.28 per 100,000-person. Because of high prevalence of this disease in Fars province, the purpose of this study was to assess the spatial pattern of MS incidence rate by modeling both the effects of spatial dependence between neighboring regions and risk factors in a Bayesian Poisson model, which can lead to the improvement of health resource allocation decisions.Method: Data from 5,468 patients diagnosed with MS were collected, according to the McDonald’s criteria. New cases of MS were reported by the MS Society of Fars province from 1991 until 2016. The association between the percentage of people with low vitamin D intake, smoking, abnormal BMI and alcohol consumption in addition to spatial structure in a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical model were used to determine the relative risk and trend of MS incidence rate in 29 counties of Fars province. Results: County-level crude incidence rates ranged from 0.22 to 11.31 cases per 100,000-person population. The highest relative risk was estimated at 1.80 in the county of Shiraz, the capital of Fars province, while the lowest relative risk was estimated at 0.11 in Zarindasht county in southern of Fars. The percentages of vitamin D supplementation intake and smoking were significantly associated with the incidence rate of MS. The results showed that 1% increase in vitamin D supplementation intake is associated with 2% decrease in the risk of MS and 1% increase in smoking is associated with 16% increase in the risk of MS.Conclusion: Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of MS incidence rate revealed that trend is less steep than the mean trend of this disease in the south and south east of Fars province, which is due to the association between the higher percentage of vitamin D supplementation intake and the lower percentage of smoking. Previous studies have also shown that smoking and low vitamin D, among all covariates or risk factors, might be associated with high incidence of MS.

Spatio-temporal trends in the risk of adolescent pregnancy in Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2000–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daiane Leite da Roza ◽  
Carla Maria Teixeira de Oliveira ◽  
Maria de Fátima Rodrigues Pereira de Pina ◽  
Denisa Maria de Melo Vasques de Mendonça ◽  
Edson Zangiacomi Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Adolescent Mothers ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State ◽  
Local Index ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Purpose To investigate, through a spatio-temporal analysis, the association between the percentages of live births of adolescent mothers (LBAM) and the human development index (HDI), including the three components: income, education and longevity. Methods The percentage of LBAM was obtained from the Brazilian Live Births Information System for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil in the period 2000–2015 and the HDI data and its components were obtained from United Nations Development Program’s (UNDP) Human Development Reports. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risk of LBAM in relation to the HDI and to identify spatial clusters of the geographical distribution of LBAM, the Moran global and local index was used. Results There is an association between the HDI and its components with LBAM. The high values of relative risk are spatially concentrated in the northern part of the state of Minas Gerais. The graphs indicated a nonlinear relationship between LBAM over the years. Conclusions There is a strong spatial dependence of LBAM in Minas Gerais, which suggests that a geographical location plays a fundamental role in understanding it. The regional disparity confirmed in this study is inherent in the process of human development, it is important for planning actions aimed at the development of these regions in order to minimize existing disparities.

Spatio-temporal analysis of accident hotspots on federal highways in the state of Goiás, Brazil

GeoJournal ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Mota dos Santos ◽  
Brunna Rodrigues Inocencio Santos ◽  
Carlos Fabricio Assunção da Silva ◽  
Pedro Monteiro de Almeida Junior ◽  
Viviane Adriano Falcão
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Spatio Temporal

scholarly journals Multiple Sclerosis incidence rate in southern Iran: A Bayesian epidemiological study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naeimehossadat Asmarian ◽  
Zahra Sharafi ◽  
Amin Mousavi ◽  
Reis Jacques ◽  
Ibon Tamayo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Vitamin D ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Vitamin D Supplementation ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Fars Province ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) remains to be a public health challenge, due to its unknown biological mechanisms and clinical impacts on young people. The prevalence of this disease in Iran is reported to be 5.30 to 74.28 per 100,000-person. Because of high prevalence of this disease in Fars province, the purpose of this study was to assess the spatial pattern of MS incidence rate by modeling both the effects of spatial dependence between neighboring regions and risk factors in a Bayesian Poisson model, which can lead to the improvement of health resource allocation decisions. Method: Data from 5,468 patients diagnosed with MS were collected, according to the McDonald’s criteria. New cases of MS were reported by the MS Society of Fars province from 1991 until 2016. The association between the percentage of people with low vitamin D intake, smoking, abnormal BMI and alcohol consumption in addition to spatial structure in a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical model were used to determine the relative risk and trend of MS incidence rate in 29 counties of Fars province. Results: County-level crude incidence rates ranged from 0.22 to 11.31 cases per 100,000-person population. The highest relative risk was estimated at 1.80 in the county of Shiraz, the capital of Fars province, while the lowest relative risk was estimated at 0.11 in Zarindasht county in southern of Fars. The percentages of vitamin D supplementation intake and smoking were significantly associated with the incidence rate of MS. The results showed that 1% increase in vitamin D supplementation intake is associated with 2% decrease in the risk of MS and 1% increase in smoking is associated with 16% increase in the risk of MS. Conclusion: Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of MS incidence rate revealed that trend is less steep than the mean trend of this disease in the south and south east of Fars province, which is due to the association between the higher percentage of vitamin D supplementation intake and the lower percentage of smoking. Previous studies have also shown that smoking and low vitamin D, among all covariates might be associated with high incidence of MS

scholarly journals Multiple sclerosis incidence rate in southern Iran: a Bayesian epidemiological study

BMC Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naeimehossadat Asmarian ◽  
Zahra Sharafi ◽  
Amin Mousavi ◽  
Reis Jacques ◽  
Ibon Tamayo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Vitamin D ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Vitamin D Supplementation ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Fars Province ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Multiple Sclerosis (MS) remains to be a public health challenge, due to its unknown biological mechanisms and clinical impacts on young people. The prevalence of this disease in Iran is reported to be 5.30 to 74.28 per 100,000-person. Because of high prevalence of this disease in Fars province, the purpose of this study was to assess the spatial pattern of MS incidence rate by modeling both the associations s of spatial dependence between neighboring regions and risk factors in a Bayesian Poisson model, which can lead to the improvement of health resource allocation decisions. Method Data from 5468 patients diagnosed with MS were collected, according to the McDonald’s criteria. New cases of MS were reported by the MS Society of Fars province from 1991 until 2016. The association between the percentage of people with low vitamin D intake, smoking, abnormal BMI and alcohol consumption in addition to spatial structure in a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical model were used to determine the relative risk and trend of MS incidence rate in 29 counties of Fars province. Results County-level crude incidence rates ranged from 0.22 to 11.31 cases per 100,000-person population. The highest relative risk was estimated at 1.80 in the county of Shiraz, the capital of Fars province, while the lowest relative risk was estimated at 0.11 in Zarindasht county in southern of Fars. The percentages of vitamin D supplementation intake and smoking were significantly associated with the incidence rate of MS. The results showed that 1% increase in vitamin D supplementation intake is associated with 2% decrease in the risk of MS and 1% increase in smoking is associated with 16% increase in the risk of MS. Conclusion Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of MS incidence rate revealed that the trend in the south and south east of Fars province is less steep than the mean trend of this disease. The lower incidence rate was associated with a higher percentage of vitamin D supplementation intake and a lower percentage of smoking. Previous studies have also shown that smoking and low vitamin D, among all covariates or risk factors, might be associated with high incidence of MS.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal analysis of influenza-like illness and prediction of incidence in high-risk regions, in the United States from 2011 to 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhijuan Song ◽  
Xiaocan Jia ◽  
Junzhe Bao ◽  
Yongli Yang ◽  
Huili Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Influenza Like Illness ◽  
Temporal Cluster ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
And Control

Abstract Introduction: About 8% of Americans get influenza during an average season from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. It is necessary to strengthen the early warning of influenza and the prediction of public health. Methods In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of Influenza-like Illness (ILI) by Geographic Information System and SARIMA model, respectively. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis detected 23 clusters of ILI during the study period. Results The highest incidence of ILI was mainly concentrated in the states of Louisiana, District of Columbia and Virginia. The Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the High-High cluster was mainly located in Louisiana and Mississippi. This means that if the influenza incidence is high in Louisiana and Mississippi, the neighboring states will also have higher influenza incidence rates. The regression model SARIMA(1, 0, 0)(1, 1, 0)52 with statistical significance was obtained to forecast the ILI incidence of Mississippi. Conclusions The study showed, the ILI incidence will begin to increase in the 45th week 2020 and peak in the 6th week 2021. To conclude, notable epidemiological differences were observed across states, indicating that some states should pay more attention to prevent and control respiratory infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Multiple Sclerosis incidence rate in southern Iran: A Bayesian epidemiological study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naeimehossadat Asmarian ◽  
Zahra Sharafi ◽  
Amin Mousavi ◽  
Reis Jacques ◽  
Ibon Tamayo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Vitamin D ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Vitamin D Supplementation ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Fars Province ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) remains to be a public health challenge, due to its unknown biological mechanisms and clinical impacts on young people. The prevalence of this disease in Iran is reported to be 5.30 to 74.28 per 100,000-person. Because of high prevalence of this disease in Fars province, the purpose of this study was to assess the spatial pattern of MS incidence rate by modeling both the effects of spatial dependence between neighboring regions and risk factors in a Bayesian Poisson model, which can lead to the improvement of health resource allocation decisions.Method: Data from 5,468 patients diagnosed with MS were collected, according to the McDonald’s criteria. New cases of MS were reported by the MS Society of Fars province from 1991 until 2016. The association between the percentage of people with low vitamin D intake, smoking, abnormal BMI and alcohol consumption in addition to spatial structure in a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical model were used to determine the relative risk and trend of MS incidence rate in 29 counties of Fars province. Results: County-level crude incidence rates ranged from 0.22 to 11.31 cases per 100,000-person population. The highest relative risk was estimated at 1.80 in the county of Shiraz, the capital of Fars province, while the lowest relative risk was estimated at 0.11 in Zarindasht county in southern of Fars. The percentages of vitamin D supplementation intake and smoking were significantly associated with the incidence rate of MS. The results showed that 1% increase in vitamin D supplementation intake is associated with 2% decrease in the risk of MS and 1% increase in smoking is associated with 16% increase in the risk of MS.Conclusion: Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of MS incidence rate revealed that the trend in the south and south east of Fars province is less steep than the mean trend of this disease. The lower incidence rate was associated with a higher percentage of vitamin D supplementation intake and a lower percentage of smoking. Previous studies have also shown that smoking and low vitamin D, among all covariates or risk factors, might be associated with high incidence of MS.

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