A New Rapid Approach for Predicting Death in Coronavirus Patients: The Development and Validation of the COVID-19 Risk-Score in Fars Province (CRSF)

Background:Patients who are identified to be at a higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 should receive better treatment and monitoring. This study aimed to propose a simple yet accurate risk assessment tool to help decision-making in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: From Jul to Nov 2020, 5454 patients from Fars Province, Iran, diagnosed with COVID-19 were enrolled. A multiple logistic regression model was trained on one dataset (training set: n=4183) and its prediction performance was assessed on another dataset (testing set: n=1271). This model was utilized to develop the COVID-19 risk-score in Fars (CRSF). Results: Five final independent risk factors including gender (male: OR=1.37), age (60-80: OR=2.67 and >80: OR=3.91), SpO2 (≤85%: OR=7.02), underlying diseases (yes: OR=1.25), and pulse rate (<60: OR=2.01 and >120: OR=1.60) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. The CRSF formula was obtained using the estimated regression coefficient values of the aforementioned factors. The point values for the risk factors varied from 2 to 19 and the total CRSF varied from 0 to 45. The ROC analysis showed that the CRSF values of ≥15 (high-risk patients) had a specificity of 73.5%, sensitivity of 76.5%, positive predictive value of 23.2%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.8% for the prediction of death (AUC=0.824, P<0.0001). Conclusion:This simple CRSF system, which has a high NPV,can be useful for predicting the risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients. It can also be used as a disease severity indicator to determine triage level for hospitalization.

The seroepidemiology and risk factors of West Nile virus infection in blood donors of Fars province, southwest of Iran

Aim: To evaluate the frequency of West Nile virus (WNV) in blood donors of the blood transfusion center of Fars province, Iran. Materials & methods: A total of 337 participants referred for blood donation to Fars blood centers were included. The presence of anti-WNV antibodies was analyzed using the WNV IgG ELISA kit. Results: Out of all participants, 76 (22.6%) were positive for anti-WNV IgG antibodies. Our results also showed that the frequency of WNV was associated with the age, educational level, job and city of residency of participants (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The results indicated the high frequency of WNV seropositivity among blood donors in southwest Iran. Accordingly, there is an urgent need to establish an integrated surveillance system for monitoring WNV infection in Iran.

Serosurvey and Molecular Detection of Toxoplasma gondii in Dogs in Rural Areas of Kazeroun District, Fars Province, Southern Iran

Background. Toxoplasma gondii is an intracellular protozoan parasite responsible for systemic disease in a wide range of warm-blooded animals. The current study is aimed at evaluating the prevalence of Toxoplasma infection in dogs, using serological and molecular methods in rural areas in Kazeroun Township, Fars province, southern Iran. Methods. Blood samples were obtained from 60 clinically healthy dogs with an age range of 1 to 7 years in three rural areas of Fars province, southern Iran. Sera and buffy coats were used to assess the T. gondii infection using both modified agglutination test (MAT) and real-time PCR. Results. Antibodies against T. gondii were detected in 5 out of 60 (8.3%) dogs by the MAT method, and T. gondii DNA was detected in 17 out of 60 (28.3%) studied animals. There was no significant association between sex and seropositivity to Toxoplasma ( p > 0.05 ). Fair agreement ( kappa = 0.27 ) was seen between molecular and serological findings where three dogs with positive serological results had a positive molecular test. Conclusion. Findings of the present study show a relatively high prevalence of T. gondii infection in dogs in rural areas in Fars province, southern Iran. Finding the parasite genotype in dogs deserves further study.

Municipal Solid Waste Disposal Site Selection Using Remote Sensing Technology and AHP Process (Case Study: Khesht city, Fars Province, Iran)

The design and implementation of the municipal waste management system aim to solve the urban issues and ultimately contribute to the citizens' health and welfare. The first step in this system is to select a site for the safe disposal of wastes. This survey aimed to select the most suitable landfill site for municipal solid waste using the geographic information system (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model following the environmental, economic, and engineering criteria. Therefore, by reviewing the literature and backgrounds, the parameters required for locating the landfill site were extracted, and the most important ones (15 sub-criteria) were selected and divided into four groups. The results showed that the sub-criterion of distance to the river with the weight of 0.218 was identified as the most critical parameter, followed by groundwater depth. In this way, the flooding parameter with the weight of 0.010 was considered the least important variable. In addition, it was found that the moderate suitability class with 50% of the area had the highest area, and the very high suitability with 0.8% had the lowest area. The inconsistency rate was equal to 0.04, which illustrates the high consistency of matrices. Then, the overlaying was carried out, and three sites were determined as the best place for a landfill in Khesht county.

Lifestyle in Female Teachers: Educational Intervention Based on Self-Efficacy Theory in the South of Fars Province, Iran

Introduction. Today, improving lifestyles and promoting health are basic needs for human society. The main goal in promoting health is to achieve healthy lifestyle behaviors, and self-efficacy is one of the factors influencing people’s lifestyle. Therefore, the impact of educational intervention based on self-efficacy theory on improving lifestyles of the female teachers in Galledar was investigated. Method. This study was a semiexperimental study with educational intervention with a control group that was performed on 120 teachers in Galledar. Data collection tools included demographic information questionnaires, health-promoting lifestyle questionnaires, and Sherry’s self-efficacy questionnaire. Data were analyzed using SPSS 25 software. Result. The mean age and standard deviation of teachers in the control and intervention groups were 33.40 ± 5.68 and 32.83 ± 6.46 years, respectively. Health-promoting lifestyle variables are significant correlation with self-efficacy and overall lifestyle index. Six dimensions which consisted of spiritual growth and self-actualization, health responsibility, interpersonal relationships, stress management, exercise and physical activity, and nutrition showed significant statistical differences before and after educational intervention ( P = 0.001 ). Conclusion. Due to the sensitive role of teachers as an effective human force in the development and evolution of society and their students’ role modeling, the authorities should formulate policies, regulate educational interventions, and design strategies for promoting self-efficacy beliefs and promoting a healthy lifestyle for all teachers. We suggest that other methods and theories of behavior change be used in future studies to promote a healthy lifestyle.

DIONYSIA SPLENDENS (PRIMULACEAE), A NEW SPECIES FROM THE FARS PROVINCE OF IRAN

Dionysia splendens Alipour, Mehregan & Lidén, sp. nov., from Fars, Iran, is a unique species that cannot be easily accommodated in any hitherto recognised section of the genus and is immediately recognised by its large flowers and pectinate leaves with very broad pale and thick midvein. It agrees with Dionysia cespitosa Duby (Boiss.) in the small flat leaves, stalked inflorescence with large bracts, and few large ellipsoid seeds, but differs in the tubular calyx and large purplish-blue corolla. It is also somewhat reminiscent of Dionysia viva Lidén & Zetterl. in growth habit and inflorescence structure, but that species has large irregularly dentate leaves, yellow corolla and numerous small angular seeds. Dionysia splendens is so far known from a single locality with c.200 mature individuals. An updated key to Dionysia species in the Zagros mountains is provided.

DIONYSIA JAMZADIAE (PRIMULACEAE), A NEW SPECIES FROM THE FARS PROVINCE OF IRAN

Dionysia jamzadiae Lidén, M.Irvine, Alvén & Mehregan, from the east Zagros Mountains, Fars, Iran, is described as new to science. It belongs in section Dionysiopsis and is similar to D. oreodoxa Bornm. but differs in, for example, its sparsely glandular hairy or almost glabrous corolla with emarginated lobes (densely non-glandular pubescent with entire lobes in D. oreodoxa). Dionysia jamzadiae is known from two places and is quite abundant at the type locality.