scholarly journals Ensemble long-term soil moisture forecast using hydrological modeling

RBRH ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bibiana Rodrigues Colossi ◽  
Carlos Eduardo Morelli Tucci

ABSTRACT Long-term soil moisture forecasting allows for better planning in sectors as agriculture. However, there are still few studies dedicated to estimate soil moisture for long lead times, which reflects the difficulties associated with this topic. An approach that could help improving these forecasts performance is to use ensemble predictions. In this study, a soil moisture forecast for lead times of one, three and six months in the Ijuí River Basin (Brazil) was developed using ensemble precipitation forecasts and hydrologic simulation. All ensemble members from three climatologic models were used to run the MGB hydrological model, generating 207 soil moisture forecasts, organized in groups: (A) for each model, the most frequent soil moisture interval predicted among the forecasts made with each ensemble member, (B) using each model’s mean precipitation, (C) considering a super-ensemble, and (D) the mean soil moisture interval predicted among group B forecasts. The results show that long-term soil moisture based on precipitation forecasts can be useful for identifying periods drier or wetter than the average for the studied region. Nevertheless, estimation of exact soil moisture values remains limited. Forecasts groups B and D performed similarly to groups A and C, and require less data management and computing time.

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 519-522
Author(s):  
Jeyakumar S ◽  
Jagatheesan Alagesan ◽  
T.S. Muthukumar

Background: Frozen shoulder is disorder of the connective tissue that limits the normal Range of motion of the shoulder in diabetes, frozen shoulder is thought to be caused by changes to the collagen in the shoulder joint as a result of long term Hypoglycemia. Mobilization is a therapeutic movement of the joint. The goal is to restore normal joint motion and rhythm. The use of mobilization with movement for peripheral joints was developed by mulligan. This technique combines a sustained application of manual technique “gliding” force to the joint with concurrent physiologic motion of joint, either actively or passively. This study aims to find out the effects of mobilization with movement and end range mobilization in frozen shoulder in Type I diabetics. Materials and Methods: 30 subjects both male and female, suffering with shoulder pain and clinically diagnosed with frozen shoulder was recruited for the study and divided into two groups with 15 patients each based on convenient sampling method. Group A patients received mobilization with movement and Group B patients received end range mobilization for three weeks. The outcome measurements were SPADI, Functional hand to back scale, abduction range of motion using goniometer and VAS. Results: The mean values of all parameters showed significant differences in group A as compared to group B in terms of decreased pain, increased abduction range and other outcome measures. Conclusion: Based on the results it has been concluded that treating the type 1 diabetic patient with frozen shoulder, mobilization with movement exercise shows better results than end range mobilization in reducing pain and increase functional activities and mobility in frozen shoulder.


2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 2343-2357 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Wanders ◽  
D. Karssenberg ◽  
A. de Roo ◽  
S. M. de Jong ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens

Abstract. We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model (LISFLOOD) for flood predictions with lead times of up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer), AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) is assimilated into the LISFLOOD model for the Upper Danube Basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into the hydrological model, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure increased performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation data set. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the mean absolute error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 35%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of baseflows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5–10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more observational data is assimilated into the system. The added values of the satellite data is largest when these observations are assimilated in combination with distributed discharge observations. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.


2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jörg Klekamp

Object The treatment of tethered cord syndromes in adults is discussed regarding the natural history and surgical indications. The author analyzes data obtained in patients who were diagnosed with a tethered cord in adulthood and either underwent surgical or conservative therapy between 1991 and 2009. Methods Since 1991, data obtained in 2515 patients with spinal cord pathologies were entered into the spinal cord database, and prospective follow-up was performed through outpatient visits and questionnaires. Of the 2515 patients, 85 adults with a tethered cord syndrome formed the basis of this study. The tethering effect was caused either by a split cord malformation, a thick filum terminale, a conus medullaris lipoma with extradural extension, or various combinations of these mechanisms. The mean age of the patients was 46 ± 13 years (range 23–74 years) and the mean follow-up duration was 61 ± 62 months. Two groups were distinguished based on the absence (Group A, 43 patients) or presence (Group B, 42 patients) of an associated lipoma or dysraphic cyst (that is, dermoid, epidermoid, or neurenteric cyst). Surgery was recommended for patients with symptoms only. Short-term results were determined within 3 months of surgery, whereas long-term outcomes (clinical recurrences) were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier statistics. Results For all patients, pain was the most common major complaint. Severe neurological deficits were rare. In Group A, 20 of 43 patients underwent surgery, whereas in Group B 23 of 42 patients underwent surgery. Among individuals who did not undergo surgery, 17 patients refused surgery and 25 patients underwent recommended conservative treatment. Short-term postoperative results indicated a significant improvement of pain and a stabilization of neurological symptoms. Long-term results showed a good prognosis in patients in whom first-time (that is, nonrevision) surgery achieved successful untethering, with a 10-year rate of neurological stabilization in 89% of Group A and a 10-year rate of neurological stabilization in 81% of Group B patients. The benefit of secondary operations in Group B was limited, with eventual clinical deterioration occurring in all patients within 10 years. For patients treated conservatively, follow-up information could be obtained in 33 of 42 patients. Twenty-eight patients remained in stable clinical condition. Only 5 of the conservatively treated patients experienced clinical deterioration over time; in 4 of these individuals with deterioration, surgery had been recommended but was refused by the patient. The clinical recurrence rate in all conservatively treated patients was 21% after 10 years. With a recommendation for surgery this figure rose to 47% within 5 years. Conclusions Surgery in adult patients with a tethered cord syndrome should be reserved for those with symptoms. In surgically treated patients, pain relief can often be achieved, and long-term neurological stabilization tends to persist more often than it does in conservatively treated patients. A conservative approach is warranted, however, in adult patients without neurological deficits. Revision surgery in patients with complex dysraphic lesions should be performed in exceptional cases only.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenlei Yang ◽  
Wolfgang Kurtz ◽  
Sebastian Gebler ◽  
Lennart Schüler ◽  
Stefan Kollet ◽  
...  

<p>Integrated terrestrial systems modeling is important for the comprehensive investigation of the coupled terrestrial water, energy and biogeochemical cycles. In this work, we applied the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) to the two meso-scale catchments in Germany (Rur and Bode) to conduct a long time hydrologic simulation with a focus on variables such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater recharge. Simulations for the Rur and Bode catchments were performed at three different spatial horizontal model resolutions (1000, 500, and 200m) with CLM and CLM-PF in TSMP. Each of the three resolution models was run for 24 years (1995-2018) with transient atmospheric forcings derived from COSMO-REA6 data. The long term simulation results show that the summer of 2018 resulted in the lowest soil moisture content over the time series that is around 0.20, lower than the dry summers of 1995 and 2003. ET was more reduced in July-August 2018 due to the decrease of soil moisture content during this period. Nevertheless, actual evapotranspiration was even in the summer of 2018 often not limited by soil moisture content. For these catchments ET is most of the time energy limited. In addition, the vegetation evaporation (resulting from interception) accounts for the smallest percentage of the ET (ca. 20%), whereas the vegetation transpiration and soil evaporation account for almost the same percentage of the total ET (each 40% approximately). Both the CLM and CLM-PF simulation results indicate that grid coarsening (lower model resolution) leads to larger ET and soil moisture content, which is related to the decreasing slope gradient with grid coarsening. The analysis of groundwater recharge is underway.</p>


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3401
Author(s):  
Eva Melišová ◽  
Adam Vizina ◽  
Linda R. Staponites ◽  
Martin Hanel

Determining an optimal calibration strategy for hydrological models is essential for a robust and accurate water balance assessment, in particular, for catchments with limited observed data. In the present study, the hydrological model Bilan was used to simulate hydrological balance for 20 catchments throughout the Czech Republic during the period 1981–2016. Calibration strategies utilizing observed runoff and estimated soil moisture time series were compared with those using only long-term statistics (signatures) of runoff and soil moisture as well as a combination of signatures and time series. Calibration strategies were evaluated considering the goodness-of-fit, the bias in flow duration curve and runoff signatures and uncertainty of the Bilan model. Results indicate that the expert calibration and calibration with observed runoff time series are, in general, preferred. On the other hand, we show that, in many cases, the extension of the calibration criteria to also include runoff or soil moisture signatures is beneficial, particularly for decreasing the uncertainty in parameters of the hydrological model. Moreover, in many cases, fitting the model with hydrological signatures only provides a comparable fit to that of the calibration strategies employing runoff time series.


2013 ◽  
Vol 433-435 ◽  
pp. 1817-1820 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Wen Xu ◽  
Jun Fang Zhao ◽  
Peng Wang ◽  
Shuang Liu

Soil moisture plays an important role in agricultural drought predicting. Hydrological models can be employed to forecast soil moisture. In order to get better predicted soil moisture information, we use two basin hydrological models, i.e. XXT and TOPMODEL, to forecast the soil moisture for Huaihe River watershed. The performance of both the two models was tested in the Linyi watershed with a drainage area of 10040 km2, a tributary of the Huaihe river, China. The results show that the soil moisture simulated by the XXT is more agree with the observed ones than that simulated by TOPMODE compared to the filed observed soil moisture at 10 cm or the mean ones of 10 cm, 20 com, and 40 cm from surface, and that the predicted soil moisture by both the models has the similar trend and temporal change pattern with the observed one. However, both the models need to be improved in soil moisture forecasting in the future work.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Schroeder ◽  
B Bihin ◽  
M Buche ◽  
P.H Eucher ◽  
J Felix ◽  
...  

Abstract   To assess the long-term outcome of patients with an enlarged ascending thoracic aorta (ATA), a retrospective study was performed. Methods Inclusion criteria: ATA diameter of 38 mm or more by ETT (813 consecutive cases). Inclusion period: 1.1.2003–31.12.2016. Results At baseline, the mean diameter of the ATA was 42±3 mm, the mean Z-score was 2.7±0.8. In the subgroup of patients with 2 ETT examinations (and no surgical cure of the ATA), the mean diameter was 41.9±4.8 mm, the mean Z-score 2.4±1.1 after a mean follow-up of 6 years. During the follow-up, 52 patients had an intervention on the ATA, 26 patients were operated within the first 3 months after the diagnostic echocardiogram. 26 patients were operated during FU. In the 791 remaining patients (without early intervention), the event rate (death, intervention on the ATA) were assessed by the competing risk model. In the group of patients with a baseline ATA diameter of less than 41 mm (Group A: n=254), the cumulative incidence of death at 5 and 10 y was 34% and 61%; in the group of patients with an ATA diameter of 41–42 mm (Group B: n=238) the incidence was 34% and 61% respectively, in the group of patients with an ATA diameter of 43–44 mm (Group C: n=147), the incidence was 32% and 58%, in the group of patients with a diameter of 45 and more (Group D: n=150), the incidence was 31.1% and 61% (NS). The cumulative incidence of surgical interventions on the ATA at 5 and 10 years was 0.4% and 1% in group A, 1.3 and 1.8% in group B, 0.7 and 1.4% in group C and 9.8 and 12.9% in group D (p<0.05). Similar results were observed in patients according to the Z-scores. In the group of patients (221) with a Z-score >3, the incidence of intervention at 5 and 10 y was respectively 7.6% and 10.7% (p=0.01). Conclusions – The mean diameter of the enlarged ATA remained nearly unchanged over a period of 6 years. – No impact of the enlarged ATA on survival was observed. – Only patients with an ATA diameter of 45 mm and more (or a Z-score of 3 and more) needed an intervention on the ATA at a rate of ± 10% at 10 y after the initial echocardiographic diagnosis. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


2021 ◽  
pp. 088307382110358
Author(s):  
Nameirakpam Johnson ◽  
Arushi Gahlot Saini ◽  
Prahbhjot Malhi ◽  
Niranjan Khandelwal ◽  
Pratibha Singhi

Objectives: The objective was to compare the long-term clinical, radiological, and cognitive outcomes in children with single-lesion neurocysticercosis who received 7 or 28 days of albendazole therapy. Methodology: This observational study conducted over 1 year included (1) consecutive children with single-lesion neurocysticercosis who received 7 or 28 days of albendazole therapy in the acute state and (2) completed follow-up for at least 5 years. Seizure recurrence, resolution of lesions, cognition (Malin’s Intelligence Scale for Indian Children), behavior, and school performance (National Initiative for Children Healthcare Quality Vanderbilt Assessment Scale) were assessed. Results: Group A (albendazole for 7 days) comprised 55 children, and group B (albendazole for 28 days) included 48 children. The mean age at the time of diagnosis of neurocysticercosis was 6.6 ± 1.8 years; the mean age at the time of assessment for the study was 13.2 ± 1.2 years. Focal-onset seizures were the most common clinical presentation (58.3%). The majority of lesions were ring-shaped (92.3%) or colloidal (58.2%), with perilesional edema (89.3%). In the long-term follow-up, radiological resolution of the lesions was comparable in both groups. Complete resolution was seen in 52.7% receiving 7 days and 54.2% receiving 28 days albendazole. Seizures recurred in 20% receiving 7 days and 20.8% receiving 28 days albendazole. Overall, a low intelligence quotient (IQ < 70) was seen in 55.3% cases, “somewhat problematic” school performance in 12%, and behavioral abnormalities were present in 20% of the cases. The results were comparable between the 2 groups. Conclusion: Seizure control, radiological resolution of lesion, school performance, cognitive and behavioral outcomes in the long term are comparable in children with single-lesion neurocysticercosis who have received albendazole cysticidal therapy for 7 days and 28 days. Recurrence of seizure is seen with both regimens in the long term, necessitating regular follow-up and discussion regarding the risk of recurrence before a withdrawal of anticonvulsant therapy.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Tong ◽  
Juraj Parajka ◽  
Jürgen Komma ◽  
Günter Blöschl

&lt;p&gt;Remote sensing products have been widely applied in hydrological modeling for more realistic representations of hydrological processes. In this study, in addition to gauged discharge, the combined MODIS snow cover maps and ERS scatterometer based soil moisture products were added to constrain a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model. The latest version of MODIS snow cover images provides a daily Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) in a 500-meter resolution. We derived the snow cover maps by using a new NDSI thresholding method from the MODIS Aqua (MYD10A1) and Terra (MOD10A1) daily snow cover products. Furthermore, the newest ERS soil moisture product also provided a finer spatial resolution of 500-meter over Austria. The semi-distributed TUW-model was tested in 213 catchments using both single and multiple object calibration methods. We found that the semi-distributed TUW-model performed well in discharge modeling. Moreover, applying the MODIS snow cover maps improved the accuracy in the snow-melt season, while the soil moisture product helped the discharge simulation in the no-snow period.&lt;/p&gt;


Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 276-276
Author(s):  
Thomas Pincez ◽  
Corinne Guitton ◽  
Frederic Gauthier ◽  
Guenolee Lambert ◽  
Veronique Picard ◽  
...  

Abstract Total splenectomy is recommended in symptomatic cases of hereditary spherocytosis (HS) to reduce the severity of anemia but exposes patients to long-term infectious or thrombotic complications. Alternative strategies such as subtotal splenectomy (STS) have been developed, principally for children under the age of 6 with severe HS, who are not eligible to total splenectomy because of the high infectious risk and for older patients with mild HS complaining of chronic discomfort. Since our original report, several groups have shown that STS reduced the hemolytic rate, increased the red cell lifespan while maintaining an efficient splenic phagocytic function but the extent of follow-up has been limited. In order to define the long-term benefits of STS, we report here an update of our series that includes 90 patients who underwent STS at the Bicêtre hospital between 1985 and 2013, with a median-follow-up of 9.3 years (range 1-23 years). Two groups were defined on the basis of the disease phenotype: Group A included 42 patients for whom STS was performed because of severe/intermediate HS (transfusion requirement or hemoglobin (Hb) level <95 g/dL and Group B included 48 patients with a milder HS but presenting marked icterus, gallstones requiring cholecystectomy or chronic fatigue. At the time of STS, the mean hemoglobin level was 82 g/L in Group A vs. 110 g/L in Group B. Mean age at surgery was 7.6 ± 5.4 years (0.5-25 years), significantly lower in Group A than in Group B (4.3 vs. 10 years, p<0.0001). In all cases, STS was performed by laparotomy. Preoperative mean spleen volume was 513 ± 241% of normal. Surgery reduced by 88% the initial splenic volume. A functional assessment of the splenic remnant was performed by Howell jolly body counts and by splenic scintigraphy. Splenic function was retained in 87 of 90 patients except for 3 individuals (2 post-operative necrosis of the remnant, 1 non-functional remnant). No severe infection or thrombotic event was documented during the entire period of follow-up. A sustainable hematological response was observed in 81 patients (90%) at the end of the evaluation period. The mean increase in the hemoglobin level was 27 g/L, with a hemoglobin level after STS being still higher in group B than in group A (130 ± 3.3g/L vs. 110 ± 3.3 g/L (p<0.0001). For the whole population, the mean number of transfusions per year and per patient was 0.097 after versus 1.7 before STS (for Group A only: 0.21 after vs. 3.65 before STS, p<0.0001). Of note, STS decreased the hemolytic rate but did not abrogate it: the reticulocyte count decreased from 399 ±195 G/L to 290 ±170 G/L (p<0.001), but the bilirubin level remained unchanged. Seventeen patients (33%) developed cholelithiasis during the follow-up period. Gallstones were slightly more frequent in Group A than in Group B (47% vs. 15%, p=0.03). After an initial improvement, 8 patients (19% of patients from Group A) experienced a relapse with transfusion-dependant anemia and/or decrease of the hemoglobin level below 95g/L. Relapses occurred with a mean delay of 4.6 ± 1.2 years after STS. Assessing the remnant volume by ultrasonography and/or scintigraphy, we noticed that it increased quickly during the first year after STS but at a slower rate during the subsequent 5 years. The growth was faster in patients from Group A but there was no clear correlation at the end of the follow-up period between the hemoglobin level and the volume of the remnant. During the follow-up period twenty patients (22%) underwent total splenectomy with a mean delay of 8 ± 5.6 years after STS (range 0-20.1 years). Eight patients underwent total splenectomy for recurrence of anemia, the others for recurrent discomfort/pain of the remnant (n=7), icterus (n=3), wandering spleen (n=1) and early post-STS hemorrhage (n=1). Requirement for total splenectomy was significantly higher in Group A than Group B (40 of the patients vs. 6% at the last endpoint, p<0.0001). In summary, our results show that in the long-term, STS resulted in a decrease in the hemolytic rate in HS. In children under the age of six years with severe HS, STS decreased the transfusion rate and increased the hemoglobin to a level compatible with normal growth while retaining splenic function. However, half of these patients will require total splenectomy, but at an age where it will be much safer. In milder HS, STS removed discomfort related to the high hemolytic rate whithout exposing the patients to the risks of a total splenectomy. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


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