scholarly journals Agent-Based Markov Modeling for Improved COVID-19 Mitigation Policies

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. 953-992
Author(s):  
Roberto Capobianco ◽  
Varun Kompella ◽  
James Ault ◽  
Guni Sharon ◽  
Stacy Jong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Markov Modeling ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Partial Observations ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Economy Running ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Mitigation Policies

The year 2020 saw the covid-19 virus lead to one of the worst global pandemics in history. As a result, governments around the world have been faced with the challenge of protecting public health while keeping the economy running to the greatest extent possible. Epidemiological models provide insight into the spread of these types of diseases and predict the effects of possible intervention policies. However, to date, even the most data-driven intervention policies rely on heuristics. In this paper, we study how reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian inference can be used to optimize mitigation policies that minimize economic impact without overwhelming hospital capacity. Our main contributions are (1) a novel agent-based pandemic simulator which, unlike traditional models, is able to model fine-grained interactions among people at specific locations in a community; (2) an RLbased methodology for optimizing fine-grained mitigation policies within this simulator; and (3) a Hidden Markov Model for predicting infected individuals based on partial observations regarding test results, presence of symptoms, and past physical contacts. This article is part of the special track on AI and COVID-19.

Exploring vowel formant estimation through simulation-based techniques

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler Kendall ◽  
Charlotte Vaughn
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Coding ◽  
Linear Predictive Coding ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Vowel Formant ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractThis paper contributes insight into the sources of variability in vowel formant estimation, a major analytic activity in sociophonetics, by reviewing the outcomes of two simulations that manipulated the settings used for linear predictive coding (LPC)-based vowel formant estimation. Simulation 1 explores the range of frequency differences obtained when minor adjustments are made to LPC settings, and measurement timepoints around the settings used by trained analysts, in order to determine the range of variability that should be expected in sociophonetic vowel studies. Simulation 2 examines the variability that emerges when LPC settings are varied combinatorially around constant default settings, rather than settings set by trained analysts. The impacts of different LPC settings are discussed as a way of demonstrating the inherent properties of LPC-based formant estimation. This work suggests that differences more fine-grained than about 10 Hz in F1 and 15–20 Hz in F2 are within the range of LPC-based formant estimation variability.

scholarly journals Visualising Ostia’s Processional Landscape Through a Multi-Layered Computational Approach: Case Study of the Cult of the Magna Mater

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 444-467
Author(s):  
Katherine A. Crawford
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Computational Approach ◽  
Urban Network ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Layered Approach ◽  
Religious Landscape ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractOstia, the ancient port of Rome, had a rich religious landscape. How processional rituals further contributed to this landscape, however, has seen little consideration. This is largely due to a lack of evidence that attests to the routes taken by processional rituals. The present study aims to address existing problems in studying processions by questioning what factors motivated processional movement routes. A novel computational approach that integrates GIS, urban network analysis, and agent-based modelling is introduced. This multi-layered approach is used to question how spectators served as attractors in the creation of a processional landscape using Ostia’s Campo della Magna Mater as a case study. The analysis of these results is subsequently used to gain new insight into how a greater processional landscape was created surrounding the sanctuary of the Magna Mater.

A Model for Cooperative Design Based on Multi-Agent System

2011 ◽  
Vol 65 ◽  
pp. 160-164
Author(s):  
Na Li ◽  
Yi Guo
Keyword(s):  
Information Exchange ◽  
Multi Agent System ◽  
Design Environment ◽  
Knowledge Processing ◽  
Cooperative Design ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Design Activities ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Design Result

Distributed cooperative design is carried out by teams located at different places. The regional limitation must be overcome to facilitate information exchange, knowledge processing, and design result exchange, etc., among the teams. This paper proposes a multi-agent based model for cooperative design. The model consists of five types of agents according to cooperative design environment and design activities. Integrated fine grained security mechanism into different agents is the major feature of this model.

Modelling of Flow Properties of Asphalt Mastics

2013 ◽  
Vol 752 ◽  
pp. 209-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Róbert Géber ◽  
László A. Gömze
Keyword(s):  
Research Work ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Flow Properties ◽  
Rheological Models ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Mineral Particles ◽  
Asphalt Mastics ◽  
Rheological Modelling ◽  
Mineral Fillers

The present research work deals with the examination and rheological modelling of flow properties of asphalt mastics which are the most important components of asphalt concretes. Asphalt mastics are mixtures of fine grained mineral filler particles (d<0,063 mm) and bitumen, having a stabilizing role in asphalt mixtures and largely determining the cohesion between mineral particles and bitumen. During our examinations two types of mineral fillers – limestone and dolomite – as well as standard bitumen were tested, which are extensively used in Hungarian road construction. Asphalt mastic mixtures were prepared out of these materials and they were tested with dynamic shear rheometer (DSR). According to the test results, rheological models of mastics were determined. It has been established that at different test temperatures and shear rate ranges asphalt mastics behave as Herschel-Bulkley and Bingham-type materials.

scholarly journals Compressibility behaviour of remoulded, fine-grained soils and correlation with index properties

2000 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 712-722 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Sridharan ◽  
H B Nagaraj
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Limit ◽  
Plasticity Index ◽  
Engineering Properties ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Index Properties ◽  
Initial Water ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Water Contents

Correlating engineering properties with index properties has assumed greater significance in the recent past in the field of geotechnical engineering. Although attempts have been made in the past to correlate compressibility with various index properties individually, all the properties affecting compressibility behaviour have not been considered together in any single study to examine which index property of the soil correlates best with compressibility behaviour, especially within a set of test results. In the present study, 10 soils covering a sufficiently wide range of liquid limit, plastic limit, and shrinkage limit were selected and conventional consolidation tests were carried out starting with their initial water contents almost equal to their respective liquid limits. The compressibility behaviour is vastly different for pairs of soils having nearly the same liquid limit, but different plasticity characteristics. The relationship between void ratio and consolidation pressure is more closely related to the shrinkage index (shrinkage index = liquid limit - shrinkage limit) than to the plasticity index. Wide variations are seen with the liquid limit. For the soils investigated, the compression index relates better with the shrinkage index than with the plasticity index or liquid limit.Key words: Atterberg limits, classification, clays, compressibility, laboratory tests.

scholarly journals Seismic bracing performance of plasterboard timber walls

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Liu ◽  
David Carradine
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Performance ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Wall Model ◽  
Seismic Engineering ◽  
Displacement Capacity ◽  
Insight Into

The goal of this study is to develop a racking model of plasterboard-sheathed timber walls as part of the efforts towards performance-based seismic engineering of low-rise light timber-framed (LTF) residential buildings in New Zealand. Residential buildings in New Zealand are primarily stand-alone low-rise LTF buildings, and their bracing elements are commonly plasterboard-sheathed LTF walls. It is an essential part of performance-based seismic designs of LTF buildings to be able to simulate the racking performance of plasterboard walls. In this study, racking test results of 12 plasterboard walls were collected and studied to gain insight into the seismic performance of plasterboard-sheathed LTF walls. The racking performance of these walls was examined in terms of stiffness/strength degradation, displacement capacity, superposition applicability and failure mechanisms. Subsequently, a mathematical analysis model for simulating racking performance of LTF plasterboard walls is developed and presented. The developed racking model is a closed-form wall model and could be easily used for conducting three-dimensional non-linear push-over studies of seismic performance of LTF buildings.

Simulation for Business Engineering of Electronic Markets

2011 ◽  
pp. 163-169
Author(s):  
Marijn Janssen ◽  
Henk G. Sol
Keyword(s):  
Information Systems ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Electronic Markets ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Market Structures ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Business Engineering ◽  
Insight Into

Developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) enable information systems to intermediate between sellers and buyers in electronic markets (e-markets). A business engineering methodology can be of help to design and develop e-markets by providing insight into current market and potential e-market structures, matching mechanisms and processes, and by evaluating the implications of e-markets. In this chapter, a first concept of an interactive, discrete-event, agent-based simulation approach for the analyses and design of e-markets is presented and evaluated.

scholarly journals Deep Reinforcement Learning Agent for S&P 500 Stock Selection

Axioms ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Tommi Huotari ◽  
Jyrki Savolainen ◽  
Mikael Collan
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Trading Systems ◽  
Learning Agent ◽  
Trading Agent ◽  
Risk Taker ◽  
Insight Into

This study investigated the performance of a trading agent based on a convolutional neural network model in portfolio management. The results showed that with real-world data the agent could produce relevant trading results, while the agent’s behavior corresponded to that of a high-risk taker. The data used were wide in comparison with earlier reported research and was based on the full set of the S&P 500 stock data for twenty-one years supplemented with selected financial ratios. The results presented are new in terms of the size of the data set used and with regards to the model used. The results provide direction and offer insight into how deep learning methods may be used in constructing automatic trading systems.

scholarly journals Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheryl L. Chang ◽  
Nathan Harding ◽  
Cameron Zachreson ◽  
Oliver M. Cliff ◽  
Mikhail Prokopenko
Keyword(s):  
Computational Simulation ◽  
International Travel ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
High Level ◽  
And Control

Abstract There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13–14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.

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