Inflation Perceptions and Inflation Expectations

FEDS Notes ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (1882) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Detmeister ◽  
◽  
David Lebow ◽  
Ekaterina Peneva ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Inflation Perceptions

scholarly journals Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends, determinants and comparisons (2006–2010)

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
A Bosch ◽  
J Rossouw ◽  
V Padayachee
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
The Third ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Inflation Perceptions ◽  
Domestic Inflation

This paper reports the results of a multinomial analysis of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa. Inflation perceptions surveys among South African individuals have been undertaken since 2006. The introduction of these surveys followed on domestic inflation expectation surveys conducted in 2000, and the use of inflation perceptions surveys internationally. Domestic inflation perceptions surveys among individuals are a private initiative undertaken biennially, while domestic inflation expectation surveys among individuals are funded by the South African Reserve Bank and are undertaken quarterly. By comparing the results of domestic inflation perceptions surveys and inflation expectation surveys undertaken since 2006, this paper establishes common characteristics that impact on the formulation of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the results of the 2006 and 2008 perceptions survey results. With the completion of the third biennial inflation perceptions survey in 2010, more data sets are available for the purposes of comparison. Furthermore, the questions on inflation perceptions were expanded in the third survey. Although this provides for a broader basis of analysis between inflation perceptions surveys and inflation expectation surveys, further periodic inflation perceptions survey data will be required to test whether current inflation figures determine and anchor inflation expectations.

scholarly journals Households’ inflation perceptions and expectations: survey evidence from New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Hayo ◽  
Florian Neumeier
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Information Search ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Economic Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge And Attitudes ◽  
Rational Actor ◽  
Perceptions And Expectations ◽  
Inflation Perceptions

AbstractIn this paper, we study how inflation is viewed by the general population of New Zealand. Based on unique representative survey data collected in 2016 and using descriptive statistics and multivariate regressions, we explore various aspects of how laypersons perceive inflation and form inflation expectations. We focus on how an individual’s economic situation, information search and interest in inflation, economic knowledge, and attitudes and values are related to inflation perception and expectation, as well as the individual’s reaction to them. We interpret our findings as a clear indication that laypersons’ knowledge about inflation is much better described by the imperfect information view prevailing in social psychology than by the rational actor view typically assumed in economics.

scholarly journals A perspective on the measurement of inflation credibility

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Rossouw ◽  
F Joubert
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
Inflation Perceptions ◽  
Over Time

Inflation targeting anchors inflation expectations, which are not within the sphere of control of the authorities, but can only be influenced over time by consistent policy.  As public distrust of inflation figures will feed through to inflation expectations, this paper highlights a comparison of the credibility of two different measures of inflation in terms of an inflation credibility barometer.  In a comparison of the barometer results to the analysis of inflation perceptions reported by other central banks, it is concluded that the barometer delivers superior results.  The main recommendation is that respondents should be requested in a follow-up study to indicate whether they attach a higher degree of credibility to the overall inflation rate or the rate used for targeting purposes.

Infrastructure mortgage in Russia: Opportunities and prospects

2019 ◽  
pp. 114-133
Author(s):  
G. I. Idrisov ◽  
Y. Yu. Ponomarev
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Negative Effect

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.

Credit Restriction or Economic Growth?

2019 ◽  
pp. 45-54
Author(s):  
E.Y. Sokolova ◽  
A.S. Tanasova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Credit Restriction

At the end of 2018 — the very beginning of 2019 Russia faced negative consequences of the economic measures that took place in 2018, such as the retirement age rising, tightening sanctions against Russia, VAT rising which caused increased inflation expectations of people. The Bank of Russia increased the key rate in response. All these measures lead to decrease of domestic demand, and not stimulate economic growth. The article examines the possibility of using the monetary policy method of credit restriction to fulfil the presidential act to stimulate economic growth.

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