Global inflationary pressures have been building over the last 12 months. These rising pressures reflect emergence from the global recession of 2001–2 and fiscal laxity in several of the world's largest economies, as well as a number of temporary factors such as rising commodity prices and indirect tax increases. Inflation expectations, as reflected by yield differences between indexed and ordinary government debt, have edged up in the US, the Euro Area and the UK, as illustrated in Chart 1. US and UK inflation expectations are about 0.8 percentage points higher than at the start of 2003, while Euro Area inflation expectations have risen by about 0.4 percentage points. Our inflation projections for the major economies are reported in Table 1. We forecast an acceleration of inflation in the US, Germany, France and the UK this year relative to 2003, and expect deflation in Japan to come to an end from the middle of 2004. Stronger inflationary pressures in the US partly reflect the positive output gap, while output gaps in Canada and the Euro Area are expected to remain negative until the end of 2005 and 2006, respectively. Our output gap estimates are illustrated in Chart 2.
Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States