scholarly journals Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends, determinants and comparisons (2006–2010)

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
A Bosch ◽  
J Rossouw ◽  
V Padayachee
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
The Third ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Inflation Perceptions ◽  
Domestic Inflation

This paper reports the results of a multinomial analysis of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa. Inflation perceptions surveys among South African individuals have been undertaken since 2006. The introduction of these surveys followed on domestic inflation expectation surveys conducted in 2000, and the use of inflation perceptions surveys internationally. Domestic inflation perceptions surveys among individuals are a private initiative undertaken biennially, while domestic inflation expectation surveys among individuals are funded by the South African Reserve Bank and are undertaken quarterly. By comparing the results of domestic inflation perceptions surveys and inflation expectation surveys undertaken since 2006, this paper establishes common characteristics that impact on the formulation of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the results of the 2006 and 2008 perceptions survey results. With the completion of the third biennial inflation perceptions survey in 2010, more data sets are available for the purposes of comparison. Furthermore, the questions on inflation perceptions were expanded in the third survey. Although this provides for a broader basis of analysis between inflation perceptions surveys and inflation expectation surveys, further periodic inflation perceptions survey data will be required to test whether current inflation figures determine and anchor inflation expectations.

scholarly journals Links or disconnect: a first consideration of inflation expectations and inflation credibility, with specific reference to South Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jannie Rossouw ◽  
Vishnu Padayachee ◽  
Adel Bosch
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
International Literature ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
South Africans ◽  
General Lack ◽  
Domestic Inflation

This paper compares international and domestic inflation expectations and inflation credibility, and hypothesises about a possible link or disconnect between inflation expectations and inflation credibility among South Africans.  No similar tests have previously been performed using South African data, and there is also a general lack of domestic and international literature on any such possible link or disconnect.  While research shows that inflation expectations are taken into account by all countries targeting inflation, inflation credibility is very seldom considered.  Although the hypothesis is confirmed in certain instances, it is refuted by a disconnect between the inflation expectations and inflation credibility of male and female respondents in South Africa, which cannot be explained by available data.

scholarly journals Sentimental Outlook for the Monetary Policies of South African Reserve Bank

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-56
Author(s):  
Arnold Segawa
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
South African ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Effective Communication ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
Reserve Bank

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) migrated to inflation targeting in 2000 and has since embarked on a trajectory of transparency. This has taken the shape of releasing Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statements other forms of communication. This paper examines SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment between 2000 and 2021 using the Besigye-Segawa’s TextBlob polarity and subjectivity calculator which measures central bank communication tone and sentiment using the Loughran-McDonald dictionary’s word classification to gauge polarity and subjectivity. The study goes on to explore causality of SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment on inflation expectation results from the Bureau of Economic (BER) results survey. The systematic analysis shows a causality of SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment on succeeding BER’s inflation expectations results therein justifying the need for effective communication as SARB’s MPC communications’ polarity and subjectivity ultimately have a causal effect on inflation expectations. therein justifying the need for effective communication. As central bank tone and sentiment studies are only emerging in many emerging and frontier markets, this study lays a foundation for future exploration of effects of central bank communication on the expectations channel.

scholarly journals A comparison of inflation expectations and inflation credibility in South Africa: results from survey data

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jannie Rossouw ◽  
Vishnu Padayachee ◽  
Adel Bosch
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Large Percentage ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
Accurate Indication ◽  
Survey Results

This paper reports a comparison of South African household inflation expectations and inflation credibility surveys undertaken in 2006 and 2008. It tests for possible feed-through between inflation credibility and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the 2006 survey results. The comparison shows that inflation expectations differed between different income groups in both 2006 and 2008. Inflation credibility differed between male and female respondents, but this difference did not feed through to inflation expectations. More periodic survey data will be required for developing final conclusions on the possibility of feed-through effects. To this end the structure of credibility surveys should be reconsidered, as a large percentage of respondents indicated that they ‘don’t know’ whether the historic rate of inflation is an accurate indication of price increases.

scholarly journals Complementing South African inflation surveys: A suitable forecasting tool

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Van Heerden ◽  
Andre Heymans ◽  
Yudhvir Seetharam
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
General Public ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Complex Approach ◽  
Network Process

Central banks currently perform inflation expectation surveys in order to better align their inflation expectations with that of the general public. However, surveys are time-consuming, complicated, expensive and not always accurate, thus compromising the credibility of these expectations. The complexity of inflation targeting and the difficulty of forecasting in real time can also cause policymakers to consider more basic models, which can lead to inexact forecasts. This article employs less complicated models, such as the seasonally adjusted autoregressive integrated moving average and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models, to provide equally reliable forecasts. A more complex approach in the form of a non-linear autoregressive neural network process was also employed to model the strategic and rational manner in which the general public formulates their expectations. Overall, the forecast estimates provided by these models were superior when compared with the inflation expectations provided by the International Monetary Fund, South African Reserve Bank and Bureau for Economic Research.

New South African Review 3: The second phase – tragedy or farce? (John Daniel, Prishani Naidoo, Devan Pillay and Roger Southall, eds)

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Kotzé
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Social Practice ◽  
New South ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Human Sciences ◽  
The South ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
The Third ◽  
Direct Competition

As the title indicates this publication is the third issue in a series of reviews. The first issue was subtitled 2010: Development or decline? (2010) and the second was New paths, old promises? (2011). These publications are edited in the Department of Sociology at Wits University as part of its Strategic Planning and Allocation of Resources Committee (SPARC) Programme. The series is intended to be a revival of the South African Review edited by the South African Research Service and published by Ravan Press in the 1980s and early 1990s. Arguably one of the best known of these series was issue seven edited by Steven Friedman and Doreen Atkinson, The Small Miracle: South Africa's negotiated settlement (1994). The latest publication should also be seen as direct competition for the Human Sciences Research Council's (HSRC) regular publication, State of the Nation. The New South African Review 3 is organised into four parts, namely Party, Power and Class; Ecology, Economy and Labour; Public Policy and Social Practice; and South Africa at Large. The four editors introduce each of the sections, consisting of 16 chapters in total. Thebook's format appears to be that of a yearbook but it is not linked to a specific year. It is therefore not in the same category as for example the South African Institute of Race Relations' annual South Africa Survey. The Review is organised around a theme, albeit very general in its formulation, and in the case of the third issue it is also not applicable to all its chapters. At the same time, though, it is not a yearbook as the choice of chapters and their foci are on the latest developments. 

scholarly journals How applicable is export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses to South African economy?

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Ntebogang Dinah Moroke ◽  
Molebogeng Manoto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Time Series ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

This paper investigated exports, imports and the economic growth nexus in the context of South Africa. The paper sets out to examine if long-run and causal relationships exist between these variables. Quarterly time series data ranging between 1998 and 2013 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec databases was employed. Initial data analysis proved that the variables are integrated at their levels. The results further indicated that exports, imports and economic growth are co-integrated, confirming an existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causal results were shown running from exports and imports to GDP and from imports to exports, validating export-led and import-led growth hypotheses in South Africa. A significant causality running from imports to exports, suggests that South Africa imported finished goods in excess. If this is not avoided, lots of problems could be caused. A suggestion was made to avoid such problematic issues as they may lead to replaced domestic output and displacement of employees. Another dreadful ramification may be an adverse effect on the economy which may further be experienced in the long-run.

Evolution of South Africa's Racist Constitutions and the 1983 Constitution

1987 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-23
Author(s):  
Xia Jisheng
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
State Law ◽  
The South ◽  
Constitutional Development ◽  
The Third ◽  
Fundamental State ◽  
History Of ◽  
South African Constitution

Since the enforcement of 1983 constitution, several years have passed. The 1983 constitution is the third constitution since the founding of the Union of South Africa in 1910. By observing the history of the constitutional development in more than seventy years in South Africa and the content of the current South African constitution, it is not difficult to find out that the constitution, as a fundamental state law, is an important weapon of racism. South Africa's white regime consistandy upholds and consolidates its racist rule by adopting and implementing constitutions. The aim of this article is to analyze and expose the essence of the South African racist system in mis aspect.

Christianity and Secularisation in South Africa: Probing the Possible Link between Modernisation and Secularisation

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nico Vorster
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Social Factors ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Max Weber ◽  
The Third ◽  
African Experience ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Relationship

The secularisation theory of Max Weber states that modernisation inevitably leads to the decline of religion. This theory has in recent years been challenged by the desecularisation theories of various sociologists and philosophers. This article probes the possible link between modernisation and secularisation through a case study of the Republic of South Africa. South Africa is an important case study because it went through a rapid process of modernisation from the 1990s onwards. The first section examines the secularisation thesis of Weber and his supporters, as well as theories of desecularisation. The second section discusses the periods of anti-modernisation (1910–90) and modernisation (1990–2012) in South Africa. The third section analyses statistical data on the state of religion in South Africa, while the last section offers some concluding remarks on the relationship between modernisation and secularisation in South Africa thus far. The finding of the article is that the South African experience indicates that modernisation has an impact on religion, but the effect is not necessarily one of a decline in religion. In South Africa, modernisation has led to the decline of religion in some communities and the rejuvenation of religion in others. The effect of modernisation on religion seems to depend on its interaction with a range of other social factors.

scholarly journals The Main Determinants of Inflation in South Africa: an Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-232
Author(s):  
Oatlhotse Madito ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Target Range ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
Domestic Inflation

This study investigated the determinants of inflation in South Africa using quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 2015Q4. The study was motivated by recent trends in domestic inflation that has frequently been at the upper end of the target range of between 3% and 6%, and the need to guide inflation-related policy since 2008. These recent trends raised concerns regarding the effectiveness of the current monetary policy approach in responding to internal and external factors that are significant in determining domestic inflation. Using Error Correction Model (ECM) modelling techniques, empirical results revealed that inflation expectations, labour costs, government expenditure and import prices are positive determinants, while GDP and exchange rates are negative determinants of inflation. To achieve the macroeconomic policy objective of a stable and low inflation rate for South Africa, more emphasis should be placed on anchoring inflation expectations, which was found to be highly significant in determining inflation.

scholarly journals Islamic Studies in South Africa

1994 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 274-281
Author(s):  
Tamara Sonn
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Muslim Population ◽  
South Africans ◽  
Islamic Studies ◽  
The Third ◽  
Northern India ◽  
Arabic Script

Background of South African IslamIn 1994, South Africans will celebrate three centuries of Islam inSouth Africa. Credit for establishing Islam in South Africa is usuallygiven to Sheikh Yusuf, a Macasser prince who was exiled to South Africafor leading the resistance against the Dutch colonization of Malaysia. Thefitst Muslims in South Africa, however, were actually slaves who hadbeen imported, beginning in 1677, mainly from India, the Indonesianarchipelago, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka, by the Dutch colonists living in theCape. The Cape Muslim community, popularly but inaccurately knownas "Malays" and known under apattheid as "Coloreds," is the oldest Muslimcommunity in South Africa. The other major Muslim community wasestablished over a century later by indentured laborers and tradespeoplefrom northern India, a minority of whom weae Muslims. The majority ofSouth African Indian Muslims, classified as "Asians" or "Asiatics," nowlive in Natal and Tramvaal. The third ethnically identifiable group, classifiedas "Aftican" or "Black," consists mainly of converts or theirdescendants. Of the entire South African Muslim population, roughly 49percent are "Coloreds," nearly 47 pement are "Asians," and, although statisticsregarding "Africans" ate generally unreliable, it is estimated thatthey are less than 4 percent. Less than 1 percent is "White."Contributions to South African SocietyAlthough Muslims make up less that 2 petcent of the total population,their presence is highly visible. There ate over twenty-five mosques inCape Town and over one hundred in Johannesburg, making minarets asfamiliar as church towers Many are histotic and/or architectuml monuments.More importantly, Muslims ate uniquely involved in the nation'scultwe and economy. The oldest extant Afrikaans-language manuscriptsare in the Arabic script, for they ate the work of Muslim slaves writingin the Dutch patois. South African historian Achrnat Davids has tracedmany linguistic elements of Afrikaans, both in vocabulary and grammar,to the influence of the Cape Muslims. Economically, the Indian Muslimsaxe the most affluent, owing primarily to the cirmmstances under whichthey came to South Africa. Muslim names on businesses and buildingsare a familiar sight in all major cities and on those UniveAty campusesthat non-Whites were allowed to attend during apartheid ...

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