Have pandemic-induced declines in home listings fueled house price growth?

FEDS Notes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (2968) ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Bhutta ◽  
◽  
Adithya Raajkumar ◽  
Eileen van Straelen ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Anecdotal Evidence ◽  
Price Growth

New homes listed for sale fell sharply at the beginning of the pandemic. Anecdotal evidence suggests that fear of COVID made homeowners reluctant to list their homes, driving down new listings. Figure 1 shows that from March to April 2020, as COVID lockdowns went into effect, new listings declined by more than one-third relative to previous years and did not return to normal levels until July 2020.

International Real Estate Review

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-220
Author(s):  
Karol Jan Borowiecki ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Quality Improvements ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Price Determinants ◽  
A Minor

This paper studies the Swiss housing price determinants. The Swiss housing economy is reproduced by employing a macro- series from the last seventeen years and constructing a vector-autoregressive model. Conditional on a comparatively broad set of fundamental determinants considered, i.e. wealth, banking, demographic and real estate specific variables, the following findings are made: 1) real house price growth and construction activity dynamics are most sensitive to changes in population and construction prices, whereas real GDP, in contrary to common empirical findings in other countries, turns out to have only a minor impact in the short-term, 2) exogenous house price shocks have no long-term impacts on housing supply and vice versa, and 3) despite the recent substantial price increases, worries of overvaluation are unfounded. Furthermore, based on a self-constructed quality index, evidence is provided for a positive impact of quality improvements in supplied dwellings on house prices.

scholarly journals Club convergence of house prices: Evidence from China’s ten key cities

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 1550181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Meng ◽  
Wen-Jie Xie ◽  
Wei-Xing Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Chinese Housing Market

The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a marked fall during the global financial tsunami and China’s economy has also slowed down by about 2%–3% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than 10 years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here, we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing 10 representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The 10 key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident convergence. These findings from different methods are basically consistent with each other. The identified city clubs are also consistent with the conventional classification of city tiers. The house prices of the first-tier cities grow the fastest and those of the third- and fourth-tier cities rise the slowest, which illustrates the possible presence of a ripple effect in the diffusion of house prices among different cities.

scholarly journals Evaluating banking crisis predictions in EU and V4 countries .

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-72
Author(s):  
Filip Ostrihoň
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
House Price ◽  
Discrete Choice Models ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Indicator Approach ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Visegrad Group ◽  
Unbalanced Panel Data

Relying on a recently published database of financial crises, this paper assesses an early warning model for predicting banking sector distress. The exercise employs discrete choice models and a signaling approach to evaluate the performance of an existing model based on credit-to-GDP change and real house price growth in regard to predominantly post-crisis data for EU and Visegrad Group countries. As such, unbalanced panel data for 27 EU countries, spanning with annual frequency at longest the period of 2003-2017, as well as unbalanced panel data for 4 Visegrad Group countries covering at most the period 2008Q1-2017Q4 with quarterly frequency were analyzed. The results are generally in line with other empirical research featuring the same model and indicate that the model retains most of its predictive capabilities even when currently available data are used. However, the analysis identifies that the indicator of real house price growth may not be as useful of a predictor of banking crises in more recent periods for EU countries, as it might have been before the 2008 financial and economic crisis. Consequently, a simpler univariate early warning indicator approach might be sufficient for banking sector risk monitoring and management in EU and Visegrad Group countries in regard to identifying periods of distress similar to those in 2008.

scholarly journals Bank-Specific Shocks and House Price Growth in the U.S.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Bremus ◽  
Thomas W. Krause ◽  
Felix Noth
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Impact of House Price Growth on Mental Health: Evidence from China

2020 ◽  
pp. 100696
Author(s):  
Guoxu Wei ◽  
He Zhu ◽  
Sheng Han ◽  
Jing Chen ◽  
Luwen Shi
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
House Price ◽  
Price Growth

At a Glance…

2005 ◽  
Vol 193 ◽  
pp. 2-3
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
House Price ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Housing Investment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Trade Growth

• Global GDP growth will slow from 5.1 per cent in 2004 to 4.2 per cent in 2005; world trade growth will slow from 9.1 per cent to 6.3 per cent.• The oil price is expected to remain above $50 a barrel, although in real terms it is well below the highs of the early 1980s.• Nearly 25 per cent of the deterioration of the US current account since 1997 can be attributed to net trade in petroleum products, and reflects the oil price.• A 10 per cent revaluation of the Chinese renminbi would have little impact on the US current account deficit.• Rapid real house price growth will continue to support US housing investment in 2005 and 2006.

Loan-to-value and the price-rent ratio

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-159
Author(s):  
Trond-Arne Borgersen
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Ratio Approach ◽  
Ambiguous Effect ◽  
Housing Investments ◽  
Context Specific ◽  
Borrowing Cost ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to highlight the relation between the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and the price-rent (PR) ratio. The paper intends to relate the PR-ratio to housing return and the potential for a leverage gain in housing investments by considering the funding structure of housing investments. Design/methodology/approach Combining a PR-ratio approach with the housing return in the case of mortgage-financed housing, as presented by Borgersen and Greibrokk (2012), this paper relates LTV to the PR-ratio. Findings When formalising the relationship between leverage and housing return, as given by Muellbauer and Murphy (1997), the paper finds the effect of a higher LTV on the user cost of housing as the net effect of a higher borrowing cost and the associated leverage gain. The latter depends on the relationship between house price growth and the mortgage rate and, because the leverage gain has an ambiguous effect on the user cost of housing, the relation between the LTV-ratio and the PR-ratio is context-specific. Originality/value The paper aims to contribute to the literature on PR ratios in two ways. First, by explicitly including the LTV-ratio in the user cost of mortgage financed housing and, correspondingly, in the PR-ratio derived from the user cost. Second, by including the funding structure of housing investments the expression for the capital gain, which often is discussed in the PR-ratio literature, is related to the funding structure and includes both a price gain and a leverage gain.

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