International Real Estate Review

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-220
Author(s):  
Karol Jan Borowiecki ◽  

This paper studies the Swiss housing price determinants. The Swiss housing economy is reproduced by employing a macro- series from the last seventeen years and constructing a vector-autoregressive model. Conditional on a comparatively broad set of fundamental determinants considered, i.e. wealth, banking, demographic and real estate specific variables, the following findings are made: 1) real house price growth and construction activity dynamics are most sensitive to changes in population and construction prices, whereas real GDP, in contrary to common empirical findings in other countries, turns out to have only a minor impact in the short-term, 2) exogenous house price shocks have no long-term impacts on housing supply and vice versa, and 3) despite the recent substantial price increases, worries of overvaluation are unfounded. Furthermore, based on a self-constructed quality index, evidence is provided for a positive impact of quality improvements in supplied dwellings on house prices.

Author(s):  
Hector Botello-Peñaloza

Homeownership remains a preferred form of tenancy in different parts of the world. The attractions of security, stability, investment potential and a sense of pride outweigh the fear of price instability. For this reason, the Colombian government has encouraged in recent years, various demand policies that have sought to promote the increase in the number of homeowners. However, these ideas could have a severe impact on prices in the real estate market. Therefore, this study seeks to examine the effect of homeownership rate on new house prices in an emerging country with low real estate ownership, credit restrictions and average per capita income. The study uses panel data model to examine the influence of housing tenancy and other variables on the variation of housing prices in Colombia. Data were obtained from various sources including the Central Bank of Colombia, Financial Superintendence of Colombia, and National Administrative Department of Statistics of Colombia. The results show that homeownership rates have a positive effect on the price of new homes, which supports the hypothesis of the research. The population growth of the cities is the factor that is most relevant when explaining the price variations.


Urban Studies ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 004209802094348
Author(s):  
Dayong Zhang ◽  
Qiang Ji ◽  
Wan-Li Zhao ◽  
Nicholas J Horsewood

The cross-regional dependency in the UK housing market is analysed using regional house price indices. In this article, a network approach based on partial correlations is proposed, along with rolling-window analysis to consider potential time-varying dependency. The results show that house prices in the outer South East region have the strongest influence on regional housing market interactions in the UK. This influence is stronger when the markets are highly interconnected, whereas the house prices in London have the strongest influence when the UK regional housing markets are relatively less connected.


2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 1550181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Meng ◽  
Wen-Jie Xie ◽  
Wei-Xing Zhou

The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a marked fall during the global financial tsunami and China’s economy has also slowed down by about 2%–3% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than 10 years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here, we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing 10 representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The 10 key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident convergence. These findings from different methods are basically consistent with each other. The identified city clubs are also consistent with the conventional classification of city tiers. The house prices of the first-tier cities grow the fastest and those of the third- and fourth-tier cities rise the slowest, which illustrates the possible presence of a ripple effect in the diffusion of house prices among different cities.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alper Ozun ◽  
Hasan Murat Ertugrul ◽  
Yener Coskun

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce an empirical model for house price spillovers between real estate markets. The model is presented by using data from the US-UK and London-New York housing markets over a period of 1975Q1-2016Q1 by employing both static and dynamic methodologies. Design/methodology/approach The research analyzes long-run static and dynamic spillover elasticity coefficients by employing three methods, namely, autoregressive distributed lag, the fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least squares estimator under a Kalman filter approach. The empirical method also investigates dynamic correlation between the house prices by employing the dynamic control correlation method. Findings The paper shows how a dynamic spillover pricing analysis can be applied between real estate markets. On the empirical side, the results show that country-level causality in housing prices is running from the USA to UK, whereas city-level causality is running from London to New York. The model outcomes suggest that real estate portfolios involving US and UK assets require a dynamic risk management approach. Research limitations/implications One of the findings is that the dynamic conditional correlation between the US and the UK housing prices is broken during the crisis period. The paper does not discuss the reasons for that break, which requires further empirical tests by applying Markov switching regime shifts. The timing of the causality between the house prices is not empirically tested. It can be examined empirically by applying methods such as wavelets. Practical implications The authors observed a unidirectional causality from London to New York house prices, which is opposite to the aggregate country-level causality direction. This supports London’s specific power in the real estate markets. London has a leading role in the global urban economies residential housing markets and the behavior of its housing prices has a statistically significant causality impact on the house prices of New York City. Social implications The house price co-integration observed in this research at both country and city levels should be interpreted as a continuity of real estate and financial integration in practice. Originality/value The paper is the first research which applies a dynamic spillover analysis to examine the causality between housing prices in real estate markets. It also provides a long-term empirical evidence for a dynamic causal relationship for the global housing markets.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Danae Bloxham

<p>The ‘kiwi dream’ of home ownership has become less attainable because of increases in housing costs. Unaffordability is linked with the house price to income ratio, especially within urban environments where incomes have fallen to 50% below property prices. This not only affects access to affordable housing, but also access to quality housing. A home should be dry, warm and safe – these are the key fundamentals of quality housing and people of all ages should have access to a home in which these qualities are not compromised by their personal income. A home that is well insulated, heated, structurally sound and located close to transport nodes should be affordable for all New Zealanders.   Home ownership in New Zealand plays a central role in our national identity. The design research will cater for the younger generation that are most affected by the housing crisis – first home buyers ranging between the ages of 25 and 30,wanting to get their foot on the property ladder and realise the ‘kiwi dream’ of home ownership.   A key issue of New Zealand’s high house prices is the influence of land costs. An intensification strategy to reduce the amount of land per dwelling is one solution to combat house prices. Intensification of New Zealand’s cities should also be targeted at an increase in urban housing along railway corridors, transport hubs and in town centres, improving both housing affordability and transport costs – two main factors of household expenditure. When these two strategies are combined with careful design and space efficient techniques, solutions can be created within a small footprint, without compromising comfort and functionality.   This thesis proposition is tested in Khandallah, one of Wellington’s wealthiest suburbs, with high access to public amenities, transport and services. The suburb already has the infrastructure needed to accommodate intensification. It’s comparatively low density housing holds great opportunity for medium density and infill development. The suburb has a large range of community facilities, schools and open spaces and dwellings are typically of low density with large sites – developed through meandering roads and col-de-sacs of single houses on single sections. With Wellingtons housing needs changing, a greater need for diverse housing throughout all of Wellington’s suburbs is necessary to cater for the growing population. Khandallah has the infrastructure to support intensification and young families should have the option of buying into a suburb of their choice.   The aim of this research is to develop a model for affordable, high quality suburban housing that is responsive to New Zealand’s housing preferences, providing a solution for greater access to desirable housing that occurs through interrelated well designed small homes. This thesis argues that doubling suburban density while retaining site coverage will make housing more affordable. This is tested through planning and spatial design strategies of a range of small homes less than 80m2. These homes will be developed through examining the design of internal spaces; the limits of the small home and relationship with external spaces and the limits of the suburb. The relationship between homes will allow a development of private and common utilities, optimising open space and shared amenities within an intensification strategy for the suburb. The design research produces an argument for clusters of small homes as future housing that will have a positive impact on New Zealand’s housing affordability as ‘starter homes’ and ‘downsize homes’.</p>


Author(s):  
Gaetano Lisi ◽  
Mauro Iacobini

The Italian housing market is characterised by both a strong heterogeneity of real estate assets and a reduced number of property sales. These features, indeed, hamper the use of the hedonic price method, namely, the method that is mostly used for assessing the house prices and for estimating the monetary value of housing characteristics. In this paper, therefore, a hedonic model with dummy variables that identify housing submarkets is used to achieve two important results: enabling greater use of multiple regression analysis in the study of the Italian real estate market, and catching, in the simplest possible manner, the effect of location on house price. Indeed, the house's location is, together with the area in square metres, the housing characteristic that most influences the house price.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (291) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhupal Singh

This paper examines the efficacy of macroprudential policies in addressing housing prices in a developing country while underscoring the importance of fundamental factors. The estimated models using city-level data for India suggest a strong influence of fundamental factors in driving housing prices. There is compelling evidence of the effectiveness of macroprudential tools viz., Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, risk weights, and provisioning requirements, in influencing housing price movements. A granular analysis suggests an even stronger impact on housing prices of a change in the regulatory LTV ratio for large-sized vis-à-vis small-sized mortgages, which buttresses their potency in fighting house price speculations. A tightening of the risk weights on the housing assets of banks causes significant downward pressure on house prices. Similarly, regulatory changes in standard asset provisioning on housing loans also influence house prices.


Author(s):  
Yahya Hamad Al Zaabi ◽  
Genanew Bekele

Objective: The paper aims to examine house price drivers in Dubai, addressing the effect of internal and external factors afecting house prices   Design/methedology/approach: Using the Hedonic price model, the study examined the implications of house size (space), the availability of bathrooms, bedrooms, waterfronts, and pool and cell phone towers within residential area as auxiliary determinant factors to housing price within developed cities by using the Hedonic Modelling. Also, study highlight the effect of the green strategies that been followed by developer on the housing prices.   Findings: The study is expected to reveal results with significant ramifications for researchers, practitioners and policy makers. From a policy perspective, there is an obvious interest in understanding whether the price of housing is affected by different attributes differently along its distribution.   Research limitations/implications: The data used in this study could be limited, and depends on information to be provided by the Dubai Land Department. There is a room for future research to include more data (such as on other house attributes such as house condition, plot numbers and configuration).


2019 ◽  
Vol 19(34) (2) ◽  
pp. 77-88
Author(s):  
Zbigniew Korzeb

The aim of this article is to establish whether the symptoms of an emerging housing bubble can be observed on the Polish market. The concept of this study is based on a comparison between economic, financial and demographic conditions at the time of the mortgage crisis in Spain and the current situation on the housing market and on the market of housing loans granted to households in Poland. An analysis of two economic indicators, (i) housing loans to households-to-GDP expressed in growth rates and (ii) rates of house price growth, does not indicate that a speculative bubble occurs in Poland now. This, however, does not mean that the conclusions drawn from the Spanish crisis cannot and should not have a bearing on the Polish market, especially in terms of potential consequences the crisis may have for the banking sector.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Louis Bago ◽  
Imad Rherrad ◽  
Koffi Akakpo ◽  
Ernest Ouédraogo

Using quarterly housing price-to-rent ratios from 1970 to 2018, this paper investigated the presence of real estate bubbles at a national level in eight selected European countries, namely Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Then, we analyzed bubbles contagion among these countries. We applied the generalized sup ADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) to detect explosive behavior in house prices. Subsequently, we implemented the non-parametric model with time varying coefficients developed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016) to estimate bubbles contagion among European real estate markets. We found evidence of at least one historical bubble in all these countries, with Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain currently experiencing a rising bubble. The results also suggest that bubbles are contagious between these real estate markets.


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