scholarly journals Construction and validation of a preterm birth risk assessment model using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stavroula Barbounaki ◽  
Antigoni Sarantaki
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Preterm Birth ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Multicriteria Analysis ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Risk Dimensions

Preterm births account for almost 1 million deaths globally. The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate a model that assists clinicians in assessing the risk of preterm birth, using fuzzy multicriteria analysis. The model allows experts to incorporate their intuition and judgment into the decision-making process and takes into consideration six (6) risk dimensions reflecting the socio-economic, behavioural and medical profile of pregnant women, thus adopting a holistic approach to risk assessment. Each risk dimension is further analysed and measured in terms of risk factors associated with it.  Data was collected from a selected group of 35 experts, each one with more than 20 years of obstetric experience. The model criteria were selected after a thorough literature analysis, so as to ensure a holistic approach to risk assessment. The criteria were reviewed by the experts and the model structure was finalised. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy method was applied to calculate the relative importance of each criterion and subsequent use of the model in assessing and ranking pregnant women by their preterm risk. The proposed model utilises fuzzy logic and multicriteria analysis. It addresses the multifactorial nature of decision making when assessing the preterm birth risk. It also incorporates the obstetricians’ intuitive judgement during risk assessment and it can be used to classify cases based upon their risk level. Additionally, it can be applied to evaluate the risk of individual cases in a personalised manner. The proposed model is compared and validated for its predictive value against judgments made by experts. 

AHP-Driven Knowledge Leakage Risk Assessment Model

2020 ◽  
pp. 218-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haley Wing Chi Tsang ◽  
Wing Bun Lee ◽  
Eric Tsui
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Intellectual Capital ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Job Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge Leakage ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Intellectual Capital (IC) is becoming more widely understood by the academic and business communities, especially its important role in value creation of an organization. However, few people are aware that IC, if not managed properly, may also pose threats, sometime serious, to an organization. Knowledge leakage from an organization, for example, may come about when an experienced employee leaves for another job. Knowledge leakage is pervasive throughout an organization but is seldom noticed until the consequence is felt. This intellectual capital risk has to be systematically and effectively identified, assessed and controlled in the whole value chain of an organization. An AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) based multi-dimensional decision making and assessment model is developed to determine knowledge leakage risk in an organization.

scholarly journals PROPOSING A NEW METHODOLOGY BASED ON FUZZY LOGIC FOR TUNNELLING RISK ASSESSMENT

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Construction Operations ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Mine Development ◽  
Civil Defence

Tunnels are artificial underground spaces that provide a capacity for particular goals such as storage, under-ground transportation, mine development, power and water treatment plants, civil defence. This shows that the tunnel construction is a key activity in developing infrastructure projects. In many situations, tunnelling projects find themselves involved in the situations where unexpected conditions threaten the continuity of the project. Such situations can arise from the prior knowledge limited by the underground unknown conditions. Therefore, a risk analysis that can take into account the uncertainties associated with the underground projects is needed to assess the existing risks and prioritize them for further protective measures and decisions in order to reduce, mitigate and/or even eliminate the risks involved in the project. For this reason, this paper proposes a risk assessment model based on the concepts of fuzzy set theory to evaluate risk events during the tunnel construction operations. To show the effectiveness of the proposed model, the results of the model are compared with those of the conventional risk assessment. The results demonstrate that the fuzzy inference system has a great potential to accurately model such problems.

Learning from failures: Design improvements using a multiple criteria decision-making process

2003 ◽  
Vol 217 (4) ◽  
pp. 207-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
G G Davidson ◽  
A W Labib
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Mathematical Representation ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Invaluable Tool ◽  
History Of

This paper proposes a new concept of decision analysis based on a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) process. This is achieved through the provision of a systematic and generic methodology for the implementation of design improvements based on experience of past failures. This is illustrated in the form of a case study identifying the changes made to Concorde after the 2000 accident. The proposed model uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) mathematical model as a backbone and integrates elements of a modified failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). The AHP has proven to be an invaluable tool for decision support since it allows a fully documented and transparent decision to be made with full accountability. In addition, it facilitates the task of justifying improvement decisions. The paper is divided as follows: the first section presents an outline of the background to the Concorde accident and its history of related (non-catastrophic) malfunctions. The AHP methodology and its mathematical representation are then presented with the integrated FMEA applied to the Concorde accident. The case study arrives at the same conclusion as engineers working on Concorde after the accident: that the aircraft may fly again if the lining of the fuel tanks are modified.

scholarly journals Application of the AHP-BWM Model for Evaluating Driver Behavior Factors Related to Road Safety: A Case Study for Budapest

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarbast Moslem ◽  
Danish Farooq ◽  
Omid Ghorbanzadeh ◽  
Thomas Blaschke
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Driver Behavior ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Pairwise Comparison Matrix ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Complex Decision Making

The use of driver behavior has been considered a complex way to solve road safety complications. Car drivers are usually involved in various risky driving factors which lead to accidents where people are fatally or seriously injured. The present study aims to dissect and rank the significant driver behavior factors related to road safety by applying an integrated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, which is structured as a hierarchy with at least one 5 × 5 (or bigger) pairwise comparison matrix (PCM). A real-world, complex decision-making problem was selected to evaluate the possible application of the proposed model (driver behavior preferences related to road safety problems). The application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) alone, by precluding layman participants, might cause a loss of reliable information in the case of the decision-making systems with big PCMs. Evading this tricky issue, we used the Best Worst Method (BWM) to make the layman’s evaluator task easier and timesaving. Therefore, the AHP-BWM model was found to be a suitable integration to evaluate risky driver behavior factors within a designed three-level hierarchical structure. The model results found the most significant driver behavior factors that influence road safety for each level, based on evaluator responses on the driver behavior questionnaire (DBQ). Moreover, the output vector of weights in the integrated model is more consistent, with results for 5 × 5 PCMs or bigger. The proposed AHP-BWM model can be used for PCMs with scientific data organized by traditional means.

scholarly journals A Neutrosophic AHP and TOPSIS Framework for Supply Chain Risk Assessment in Automotive Industry of Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Junaid ◽  
Ye Xue ◽  
Muzzammil Wasim Syed ◽  
Ji Zu Li ◽  
Muhammad Ziaullah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Supply Chain Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Supply Chain Resilience ◽  
Supply Chain Risks

Risk is inherent in all parts of life and brings consequences, but when it specifically emerges in supply chains, it is susceptible. Therefore, this study aims at identifying and assessing supply chain risks and developing criteria for managing these risks. Supply chain (SC) risks consist of complex, uncertain, and vague information, but risk assessment techniques in the literature have been unable to handle complexity, uncertainty, and vagueness. Therefore, this study presents a holistic approach to supply chain risk management. In this paper, neutrosophic (N) theory is merged with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to deal with complexity, uncertainty, and vagueness. Then the proposed methodology is practically implemented through a case study on the automotive industry. SC resilience, SC agility, and SC robustness were selected as criteria for managing supply chain risks and analyzed using N-AHP. Furthermore, seventeen risks were identified and assessed by using N-TOPSIS. Results suggest supply chain resilience is the most important criterion for managing supply chain risks. Moreover, supplier delivery delays, supplier quality problems, supplier communication failures, and forecasting errors are the most vulnerable risks that occur in supply chains of the automotive industry in Pakistan.

scholarly journals A Fuzzy-Based Decision-Making Model for Improving the Carrying Capacity of Ship Locks: A Three Gorges Dam Case

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 244
Author(s):  
Shaoyue Shi ◽  
Danhong Zhang ◽  
Yixin Su ◽  
Chengpeng Wan ◽  
Mingyang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Three Gorges Dam ◽  
Three Gorges ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Order Preference ◽  
Real Life Situation ◽  
Decision Making Model

This paper develops a decision-making model to assist the improvement of the carrying capacity of ship locks by combing fuzzy logic, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS). A three-level hierarchical structure is constructed to identify the key factors influencing the carrying capacity of ship locks from the aspects of ship locks, vessels, environment, and administration. On this basis, a series of targeted strategies have been put forward to improve the carrying capacity of ship locks, and the TOPSIS method is applied to rank these strategies in terms of their performance. A case study of the five-stage dual-track ship lock of the Three Gorges Dam in China has been conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and rationality of the proposed model, and correlation analysis is conducted to verify the identified influencing factors in order to eliminate potential bias which may be generated from using AHP. The results obtained from the proposed methods are consistent with the real-life situation to a certain extent, indicating that the proposed method can provide a useful reference for improving the carrying capacity of ship locks.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Drought Based on IEAPP-IDM in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menghua Deng ◽  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Guiyun Liu ◽  
Huimin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Projection Pursuit ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Drought Disaster

A new model for risk assessment of drought based on projection pursuit optimized by immune evolutionary algorithm and information diffusion method (IEAPP-IDM) was proposed. Due to the fact that drought risk assessment is a complex multicriteria and multilevel problem, the IEAPP-IDM model can project the multidimensional indicators of samples into one-dimension projection scores; then, the information carried by the projection scores was diffused into drought risk levels; finally, the drought disaster risk estimate was obtained. In the present study, Qujing was employed to assess the drought risk with the proposed model. The results showed that Xuanwei possessed higher risk, while Luliang and Zhanyi possessed lower risk. At the same time, the probability risk of drought in Malong and Luoping was increasing, while the probability risk of drought in in Qilin and Shizong was decreasing. The results obtained by the assessment model are consistent with the actual situation of Qujing and verify the model’s effectiveness. The study can provide scientific reference in drought risk management for Qujing and other places of China.

scholarly journals Multicriteria analysis in hazards assessment in Libya

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-70
Author(s):  
Martina Zeleňáková ◽  
Ibrahim Gargar ◽  
Pavol Purcz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Multicriteria Analysis ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Given ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Developing And Developed Countries

Abstract Environmental hazards (natural and man-made) have always constituted problem in many developing and developed countries. Many applications proved that these problems could be solved through planning studies and detailed information about these prone areas. Determining time and location and size of the problem are important for decision makers for planning and management activities. It is important to know the risk represented by those hazards and take actions to protect against them. Multicriteria analysis methods - Analytic hierarchy process, Pairwise comparison, Ranking method are used to analyse which is the most dangerous hazard facing Libya country. The multicriteria analysis ends with a more or less stable ranking of the given alternatives and hence a recommendation as to which alternative(s) problems should be preferred. Regarding our problem of environmental risk assessment, the result will be a ranking or categorisation of hazards with regard to their risk level.

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