SELECTION OF SMALL-AMPLITUDE DEFORMATION ANOMALIES – PRECURSOR OF LOCAL TRANSCARPATHIAN EARTHQUAKES WITH TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE METEOTHERMOELASTIC DEFORMATIONS

2019 ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
A. Nazarevych ◽  
L. Nazarevych ◽  
N. Bashtevych
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Research Methodology ◽  
Small Amplitude ◽  
Observation Point ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Geodynamic Monitoring ◽  
Precursors Of Earthquakes ◽  
Low Amplitude ◽  
Selection Of

The purpose of the article is to present a methodology of studies and reduction of meteothermoelastic deformations from extensometers data and the results of selection with its application of small amplitude deformation anomalies – precursors of local Transcarpathian earthquakes. The studies of meteothermal influences on the data of geophysical observations regime and the development of ways to taking into account such influences is one of the important tasks in conducting of geodynamic monitoring. This is especially relevant for extensometers studies. The research methodology consist of conducting a correlation analysis of extensometer and meteortemperature data and reduction of selected seasonal meteothermoelastic strains from variational deformations time series. As a result of those researches, in particular, the correlation between the temperature of air and deformations of the rocks massif at the "Muzhievo" observation point (Ukrainian Transcarpathians) was studied. The reduction of selected seasonal meteothermoelastic strains was carried out and a low amplitude deformation anomaly – the precursor of the local Transcarpathian earthquake with a magnitude M=3.3 at an epicenter distance of 31 km is identified. Selected anomaly has an amplitude (in relative deformations) ~3·10-7 (in comparison with the value of the seasonal meteothermoelastic variations ~14·10-7), it is 5-7 times greater than the amplitude of difference fluctuations (0.5·0.7·10-7) between the registered variations of deformations and the "regular" seasonal meteothermoelastic wave. The "precursor" duration of the anomaly is about 5 months. The practical significance of the work consists, in particular, in the fact that the application of the developed technique provides reduction of meteothermal influences and allows the search of low-amplitude deformation anomalies – precursors of earthquakes against the background of thermoelastic deformations. This, in fact, many times increases the actual sensitivity and, respectively, the zone of geodynamic and seismoprognostic control of concrete point of extensometers observations.

scholarly journals Trend Models for Analysis of Socio-Economic Security

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-112
Author(s):  
D. N. Shvaiba
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Upper Limits ◽  
Selection For ◽  
Random Nature ◽  
Selection Of

Correctness of the trend selection for predicting characteristics of socio-economic security statistics can be qualified with the help of a mean square error value and an aspect of “Ascending” and “Descending” series (although there are other aspects, for example, the aspects based on the median of a sample). According to the proposed model, it is possible to predetermine average monitoring errors for development of lower and upper limits of the forecast version in respect of values for characteristics of socio-economic security statistics. Model creation is a labor-intensive process, so that when predicting  characteristics of socio-economic security statistics, it is advisable to use, as a rule, a deterministic component of trend models. At the same time, an assumption about random nature of deviations in empirical values of time series from a trend for 5 %  significance  value is not  rejected.  Study of  the material allows us to admit that it is impossible  to  note exact cycles in time series of values for characteristics of  socio-economic  security  statistics.  However,  this does not represent a basis for the conclusion about presence of cycles in time series of values for characteristics of socio-economic security statistics because these cycles do not coincide in time, there is no clear priority in exceedance of actual values for characteristics of socio-economic security statistics over the calculated ones obtained with the help of models, or, on the contrary, exceedance of the calculated values over the actual ones. Various approaches can be used to calculate a magnitude of the forecast error. Thus, a question pertaining to selection of trend models for an analysis of socio-economic security is natural due to difference in reliability of data when using different models, and correctness of the selection will improve an efficiency of the analysis. So the study acquires practical significance for economic entities and entire industries

Der Sommer und Herbst 2003 aus phänologischer Sicht | Summer and autumn 2003 from a phenological point of view

2004 ◽  
Vol 155 (5) ◽  
pp. 142-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Defila
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Record ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
Mean Deviation ◽  
Leaf Shedding ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Very High ◽  
Selection Of

The record-breaking heatwave of 2003 also had an impact on the vegetation in Switzerland. To examine its influences seven phenological late spring and summer phases were evaluated together with six phases in the autumn from a selection of stations. 30% of the 122 chosen phenological time series in late spring and summer phases set a new record (earliest arrival). The proportion of very early arrivals is very high and the mean deviation from the norm is between 10 and 20 days. The situation was less extreme in autumn, where 20% of the 103 time series chosen set a new record. The majority of the phenological arrivals were found in the class «normal» but the class«very early» is still well represented. The mean precocity lies between five and twenty days. As far as the leaf shedding of the beech is concerned, there was even a slight delay of around six days. The evaluation serves to show that the heatwave of 2003 strongly influenced the phenological events of summer and spring.

scholarly journals A Novel Time-Sensitive Composite Similarity Model for Multivariate Time-Series Correlation Analysis

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 731
Author(s):  
Mengxia Liang ◽  
Xiaolong Wang ◽  
Shaocong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Temporal Features ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Time Series Segmentation ◽  
Similarity Model ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
Investment Portfolios

Finding the correlation between stocks is an effective method for screening and adjusting investment portfolios for investors. One single temporal feature or static nontemporal features are generally used in most studies to measure the similarity between stocks. However, these features are not sufficient to explore phenomena such as price fluctuations similar in shape but unequal in length which may be caused by multiple temporal features. To research stock price volatilities entirely, mining the correlation between stocks should be considered from the point view of multiple features described as time series, including closing price, etc. In this paper, a time-sensitive composite similarity model designed for multivariate time-series correlation analysis based on dynamic time warping is proposed. First, a stock is chosen as the benchmark, and the multivariate time series are segmented by the peaks and troughs time-series segmentation (PTS) algorithm. Second, similar stocks are screened out by similarity. Finally, the rate of rising or falling together between stock pairs is used to verify the proposed model’s effectiveness. Compared with other models, the composite similarity model brings in multiple temporal features and is generalizable for numerical multivariate time series in different fields. The results show that the proposed model is very promising.

An Experimental Study of the Forced Response of Pre- and Post-Critical Plates

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin D. Murphy ◽  
Lawrence N. Virgin ◽  
Stephen A. Rizzi
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Study ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Small Amplitude ◽  
Narrow Band ◽  
Power Spectra ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Acoustic Excitation ◽  
Rectangular Plates ◽  
Auto Correlation

Abstract Experimental results are presented which characterize the dynamic response of homogeneous, fully clamped, rectangular plates to narrow band acoustic excitation and uniform thermal loads. Using time series, pseudo-phase projections, power spectra and auto-correlation functions, small amplitude vibrations are considered about both the pre- and post-critical states. These techniques are then employed to investigate the snap-through response. The results for snap-through suggest that the motion is temporally complex and a Lyapunov exponent calculation confirms that the motion is chaotic. Finally, a snap-through boundary is mapped in the (ω, SPL) parameter space separating the regions of snap-through and no snap-through.

Selection of Neural Network for Crime Time Series Prediction by Virtual Leave-One-Out Tests

2019 ◽  
pp. 117-133
Author(s):  
Stanisław Jankowski ◽  
Zbigniew Szymański ◽  
Zbigniew Wawrzyniak ◽  
Paweł Cichosz ◽  
Eliza Szczechla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Virtual Leave One Out ◽  
Leave One Out ◽  
Selection Of

scholarly journals Conscientiousness as a Predictor of Relative Longevity

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Felix Uchechukwu Udoh ◽  
Aloysius C. Anyichie
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Big Five ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Pearson Product Moment Correlation ◽  
Anambra State ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
The People ◽  
Selection Of

<p>This study examined the Conscientiousness domain (of the Big-Five Inventory [B5]) and its facets as predictors of Relative Longevity (RL). Its methods of investigation involved the administration of the B5 to a sample of 350 people from Anambra State (of Nigeria, West Africa) who had RL. These participants were drawn from the representative towns of the three senatorial zones in the State. Stratified sampling technique was employed in the selection of the respondents. Pearson Product-Moment Correlation analysis and Multiple Regression analysis were used in data analyses. The results of the research indicated that there was no significant correlation between Conscientiousness domain and RL. However, its (Conscientiousness) facet (of Thorough) correlated significantly with RL. Besides, Conscientiousness did not predict RL, but its facets (Thorough, Reliable, Organized, and Goal-directed) were found to be significant predictors of RL. The study’s conclusion is that although Conscientiousness was neither a correlate nor a predictor of RL among the people of Anambra State, some of its Facets were (correlate and/or predictor/s).</p>

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