On Canadian methodologies of probabilistic seismic risk estimation

1979 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 1549-1566
Author(s):  
D. H. Weichert ◽  
W. G. Milne
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

abstract Three probabilistic methods for the estimation of seismic risk have been used in Canada. A reevaluation of the extreme value method shows no advantages over the average value method of Milne and Davenport. Conceptual improvements in the underlying assumptions of the latter method are a constrained release of historical earthquakes from their presumed epicenters and the averaging of earthquake rates over variable periods. Risk estimation can then proceed as suggested by Cornell. Comparison of the results of this modification of the average number method shows similar results as the Milne and Davenport average value method. The stability of risk estimates against new earthquakes is improved, but sensitivities at typical sites toward unavoidable deterministic elements in the model are similar to the older method. For certain site-source-seismicity combinations probabilistic estimates of ground motion could become almost quasi-deterministic.

Risk estimation of the disaster waste generated by both ground motion and tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroki Ishibashi ◽  
Mitsuyoshi Akiyama ◽  
Takayuki Kojima ◽  
Koki Aoki ◽  
Shunichi Koshimura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Nankai Trough ◽  
Risk Estimation

scholarly journals Optimal profile for concave slopes under static and seismic conditions

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 1522-1532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farshid Vahedifard ◽  
Shahriar Shahrokhabadi ◽  
Dov Leshchinsky
Keyword(s):  
Limit Equilibrium ◽  
Stable Configuration ◽  
Preliminary Evaluation ◽  
Construction Technology ◽  
Stability Of Slopes ◽  
Optimal Profile ◽  
Stabilized Soil ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Comparison Of The Results ◽  
The Impact

This study presents a methodology to determine the stability and optimal profile for slopes with concave cross section under static and seismic conditions. Concave profiles are observed in some natural slopes suggesting that such geometry is a more stable configuration. In this study, the profile of a concave slope was idealized by a circular arc defined by a single variable, the mid-chord offset (MCO). The proposed concave profile formulation was incorporated into a limit equilibrium–based log spiral slope stability method. Stability charts are presented to show the stability number, MCO, and mode of failure for homogeneous slopes corresponding to the most stable configuration under static and pseudostatic conditions. It is shown that concave profiles can significantly improve the stability of slopes. Under seismic conditions, the impact of concavity is most pronounced. Good agreement was demonstrated upon comparison of the results from the proposed method against those attended from a rigorous upper bound limit analysis. The proposed methodology, along with recent advances in construction technology, can be employed to use concave profiles in trenches, open mine excavations, earth retaining systems, and naturally cemented and stabilized soil slopes. The results presented provide a useful tool for preliminary evaluation for adopting such concave profiles in practice.

10 July 1894 Istanbul Earthquake: Comparing Damages and Ground Motion Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nesrin Yenihayat ◽  
Eser Çaktı ◽  
Karin Şeşetyan
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Fault Simulation ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Corner Frequency ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Ground Motion Simulations ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Intensity Map ◽  
Observed Damage

<p>One of the major earthquakes that resulted in intense damages in Istanbul and its neighborhoods took place on 10 July 1894. The 1894 earthquake resulted in 474 losses of life and 482 injuries. Around 21,000 dwellings were damaged, which is a number that corresponds to 1/7 of the total dwellings of the city at that time. Without any doubt, the exact loss of life was higher. Because of the censorship, the exact loss numbers remained unknown. There is still no consensus about its magnitude, epicentral location, and rupture of length. Even though the hardness of studying with historical records due to their uncertainties and discrepancies, researchers should enlighten the source parameters of the historical earthquakes to minimize the effect of future disasters especially for the cities located close to the most active fault lines as Istanbul. The main target of this study is to enlighten possible source properties of the 1894 earthquake with the help of observed damage distribution and stochastic ground motion simulations. In this paper, stochastic based ground motion scenarios will be performed for the 10 July 1894 Istanbul earthquake, using a finite fault simulation approach with a dynamic corner frequency and the results will be compared with our intensity map obtained from observed damage distributions. To do this, in the first step, obtained damage information from various sources has been presented, evaluated, and interpreted. Secondly, we prepared an intensity map associated with the 1894 earthquake based on macro-seismic information, and damage analysis and classification. For generating ground motions with a stochastic finite fault simulation approach, the EXSIM 2012 software has been used. Using EXSIM, several scenarios are modeled with different source, path, and site parameters. Initial source properties have been obtained from findings of our previous study on the simulation of the 26 September 2019 Silivri (Istanbul) earthquake with Mw 5.8. With the comparison of spatial distributions of the ground motion intensity parameters to the obtained damage and intensity maps, we estimate the optimum location and source parameters of the 1894 Earthquake.</p>

scholarly journals Characteristics and Kinetics of Rosin Pentaerythritol Ester via Oxidation Process under Ultraviolet Irradiation

Molecules ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 2816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanlin Li ◽  
Xiongmin Liu ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Bo Wang ◽  
Chang Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Light Intensity ◽  
Oxidation Kinetics ◽  
Pseudo First Order Reaction ◽  
Initial Oxidation ◽  
Photo Oxidation ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Pentaerythritol Ester ◽  
Fundamental Information ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Kinetics Of

A self-designed reaction device was used as a promising equipment to investigate the oxidation characteristics and kinetics of rosin pentaerythritol ester (RPE) under UV irradiation. Photo-oxidation kinetics and the initial quantum yield (Φ) of RPE were calculated. The initial oxidation product of the photo-oxidation reaction—peroxide was analyzed by iodimetry. The peroxide concentration is related to the light intensity (I) and the temperature (T), and the increasing T and I would destabilize the RPE by accelerating peroxide forming. Photo-oxidation of RPE follows the pseudo first-order reaction kinetics. The relationship between activation energy and logarithm of light intensity (ln I) is linear, and it is expressed as Ea = −4.937ln I + 45.565. Φ was calculated by the photo-oxidation kinetics, and the average value of Φ was 7.19% in the light intensity range of 200–800 μW cm−2. This research can provide fundamental information for application of RPE, and help obtain a better understanding of the stability of rosin esters.

Spatial attenuation of intensities for central U.S. earthquakes

1976 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 743-751
Author(s):  
Indra N. Gupta ◽  
Otto W. Nuttli
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Mississippi Valley ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Anelastic Attenuation ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Spatial Attenuation

abstract Attenuation of ground motion in the central United States has to be determined principally using the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity observations because of the absence of instrumental strong ground-motion data. Nuttli's previous studies of Mississippi Valley earthquakes indicate that higher-mode surface waves produce the largest ground motion except possibly in the near-field region. Particle velocity rather than acceleration correlates directly with intensity and the coefficient of anelastic attenuation has an average value of 0.10 per degree. Using data from isoseismals of the November 9, 1968, southern Illinois and the December 16, 1811, New Madrid, Missouri earthquakes and assuming a linear relationship between log(A/T) and MM intensity, attenuation is expressed by the equation, valid for I(R) ≧IV (MM), I ( R ) = I 0 + 3.7 − 0.0011 R − 2.7 log ⁡ R ; for R ≧ 20 k m where R is the epicentral distance in kilometers. This relationship shows fairly good agreement with isoseismals of many large earthquakes in the central United States and may therefore be useful in providing realistic estimates of spatial attenuation and hence of design earthquakes for a given site. It can also be sometimes useful in estimating the epicentral intensity of an earthquake whose maximum intensity is not reliably known.

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