scholarly journals A bricolage-style exploratory scenario analysis to manage uncertainty in socio-environmental systems modeling: investigating integrated water management options

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 16227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baihua Fu ◽  
Joseph H.A. Guillaume ◽  
Anthony J. Jakeman ◽  
Michael J. Asher
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Exploratory Analysis ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Integrated Water Management ◽  
Analysis Process ◽  
Model Components ◽  
Context Specific

Exploratory analysis, while useful in assessing the implications of model assumptions under large uncertainty, is considered at best a semi-structured activity. There is no algorithmic way for performing exploratory analysis and the existing canonical techniques have their own limitations. To overcome this, we advocate a bricolage-style exploratory scenario analysis, which can be crafted by pragmatically and strategically combining different methods and practices. Our argument is illustrated using a case study in integrated water management in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Scenario ensembles are generated to investigate potential policy innovations, climate and crop market conditions, as well as the effects of uncertainties in model components and parameters. Visualizations, regression trees and marginal effect analyses are exploited to make sense of the ensemble of scenarios. The analysis includes identifying patterns within a scenario ensemble, by visualizing initial hypotheses that are informed by prior knowledge, as well as by visualizing new hypotheses based on identified influential variables. Context-specific relationships are explored by analyzing which values of drivers and management options influence outcomes. Synthesis is achieved by identifying context-specific solutions to consider as part of policy design. The process of analysis is cast as a process of finding patterns and formulating questions within the ensemble of scenarios that merit further examination, allowing end-users to make the decision as to what underlying assumptions should be accepted, and whether uncertainties have been sufficiently explored. This approach is especially advantageous when the precise intentions of management are still subject to deliberations. By describing the reasoning and steps behind a bricolage-style exploratory analysis, we hope to raise awareness of the value of sharing this kind of (common but not often documented) analysis process, and motivate further work to improve sharing of know-how about bricolage in practice.

scholarly journals Assessing integrated water management options for urban developments – Canberra case study

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Sharma ◽  
S. Gray ◽  
C. Diaper ◽  
P. Liston ◽  
C. Howe
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Integrated Water Management

Assessing the potential of using water reclamation to improve the water environment and economy: scenario analysis of Tianjin, China

Water Policy ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 391-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Xiang ◽  
Feng Xu ◽  
Min-Jun Shi ◽  
Ding-Yang Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Water Environment ◽  
Reclaimed Water ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Pollutant Emission ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Integrated Water Management ◽  
Tianjin City

Tianjin City in China is a typical area that suffers from a serious water resource shortage and pollution problems, and this situation has spurred the use of reclaimed water as an additional source of water and an efficient method of improving water quality. This study aims to assess the reclaimed water utilisation amount available and its potential impacts on the water environment and economy, and proposes applicable approaches to establish the optimal development for Tianjin. A water resources-environment-economic management model was constructed, which was accomplished by dynamic linear optimisation. Through scenario analysis, Tianjin's optimal reclaimed water recycle rate can reach 56%, with 475 × 106 tons of reclaimed water amount available (supporting 22% of the water supply), while bringing sufficient environmental and economic benefits, such as reducing 20% of water pollutants and maintaining 6.3% annual economic growth by 2020. This research also suggests that an integrated water management approach is preferable, including a proper introduction of technologies suited to the region's needs, a support system for construction, and control of water pollutant emission sources, especially in agriculture. The originally formulated water management system can be easily applied and extended to solve water issues, especially for water recycling.

The Water in the Royal Monastery of Santa Maria De Poblet, Tarragona, Spain

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 261-267
Author(s):  
J.L. De la Peña ◽  
M. De la Peña ◽  
M. Salgot ◽  
Ll. Torcal
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Management System ◽  
Integrated Water Management ◽  
Water Management System ◽  
Santa Maria ◽  
Semiarid Conditions

The history and water-related features in the Poblet Cistercian Monastery, located in Tarragona province, Spain are described. The study is undertaken with the main purpose of obtaining data for the establishment of an integrated water management system inside the walls of the abbey, which is suffering water scarcity due to increasing demands and the prevalent semiarid conditions.

Living with water: at the cross-roads of change

1995 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 393-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joost de Jong ◽  
Peter T. J. C. van Rooy ◽  
S. Harry Hosper
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Environment ◽  
Integrated Water Management ◽  
Practical Action ◽  
The People ◽  
Global Perception ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Water Quality Deterioration ◽  
The Way

Until the last two decades, the global perception of how to control our various water bodies was remarkably similar – water management was organised on a sectoral basis, as it always had been. It was only in the 1970s that the people actually responsible for implementing water management began to become aware of the serious implications of such an approach: water quality deterioration, desiccation and an alarming loss of the flora and fauna that characterised their local water environment. It was a growing awareness that led to the formation of the concept of integrated water management, a concept almost universally accepted today as the way forward. However, despite the fact that few dispute the validity of the concept, a number of obstacles remain before this theoretical agreement can be transformed into practical action. Three main bottlenecks stand in the way of implementation: institutional, communicational and socio-political. Whilst solutions to these are available, the key question still to be answered is whether society is really prepared to accept the consequent changes in the way we live that will result from putting the theory of integrated water management into practice. It was this issue that dominated the “Living with water” conference held in Amsterdam in September 1994. The following is a summary of the discussions held there and the various papers that were submitted.

Policy analysis and complexity – a non-equilibrium approach for integrated water management

1995 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 301-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Govert D. Geldof
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Control System ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
The Other ◽  
Integrated Water Management ◽  
Equilibrium Approach ◽  
History Of ◽  
The One ◽  
Groundwater Policy ◽  
Non Equilibrium

In integrated water management, the issues are often complex by nature, they are capable of subjective interpretation, are difficult to express in standards and exhibit many uncertainties. For such issues, an equilibrium approach is not appropriate. A non-equilibrium approach has to be applied. This implies that the processes to which the integrated issue pertains, are regarded as “alive”’. Instead of applying a control system as the model for tackling the issue, a network is used as the model. In this network, several “agents”’ are involved in the modification, revision and rearrangement of structures. It is therefore an on-going renewal process (perpetual novelty). In the planning process for the development of a groundwater policy for the municipality of Amsterdam, a non-equilibrium approach was adopted. In order to do justice to the integrated character of groundwater management, an approach was taken, containing the following features: (1) working from global to detailed, (2) taking account of the history of the system, (3) giving attention to communication, (4) building flexibility into the establishing of standards, and (5) combining reason and emotions. A middle course was sought, between static, rigid but reliable on the one hand; dynamic, flexible but vague on the other hand.

Coping with uncertainties in integrated urban water management

1997 ◽  
Vol 36 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 265-269
Author(s):  
Govert D. Geldof
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Urban Water Management ◽  
Integrated Water Management ◽  
Good Design ◽  
Management Techniques ◽  
Simulation Results

In the practice of integrated water management we meet complexity, subjectivity and uncertainties. Uncertainties come into play when new urban water management techniques are applied. The art of a good design is not to reduce uncertainties as much as possible, but to find the middle course between cowardice and recklessness. This golden mean represents bravery. An interdisciplinary approach is needed to reach consensus. Calculating uncertainties by using Monte Carlo simulation results may be helpful.

scholarly journals Temporal and Local Heterogeneities of Water Table Depth under Different Agricultural Water Management Conditions

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 2148
Author(s):  
Jonathan A. Lafond ◽  
Silvio J. Gumiere ◽  
Virginie Vanlandeghem ◽  
Jacques Gallichand ◽  
Alain N. Rousseau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Water Table ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Irrigation Management ◽  
Sprinkler Irrigation ◽  
Water Table Depth ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Integrated Water Management ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Good Drainage

Integrated water management has become a priority for cropping systems where subirrigation is possible. Compared to conventional sprinkler irrigation, the controlling water table can lead to a substantial increase in yield and water use efficiency with less pumping energy requirements. Knowing the spatiotemporal distribution of water table depth (WTD) and soil properties should help perform intelligent, integrated water management. Observation wells were installed in cranberry fields with different water management systems: Bottom, with good drainage and controlled WTD management; Surface, with good drainage and sprinkler irrigation management; Natural, without drainage, or with imperfectly drained and conventional sprinkler irrigation. During the 2017–2020 growing seasons, WTD was monitored on an hourly basis, while precipitation was measured at each site. Multi-frequential periodogram analysis revealed a dominant periodic component of 40 days each year in WTD fluctuations for the Bottom and Surface systems; for the Natural system, periodicity was heterogeneous and ranged from 2 to 6 weeks. Temporal cross correlations with precipitation show that for almost all the sites, there is a 3 to 9 h lag before WTD rises; one exception is a subirrigation site. These results indicate that automatic water table management based on continuously updated knowledge could contribute to integrated water management systems, by using precipitation-based models to predict WTD.

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