scholarly journals Spatial Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Hungary

REGION ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-165
Author(s):  
Annamaria Uzzoli ◽  
Sándor Zsolt Kovács ◽  
Attila Fábián ◽  
Balázs Páger ◽  
Tamás Szabó
Keyword(s):  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Spatial Relation ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Community Based ◽  
The Core ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Geographical Dimension

This paper examines the spatial dynamics and regional distribution of the novel coronavirus epidemic in Hungary in an effort to obtain a deeper understanding of the connection between space and health. The paper also presents comprehensive epidemiologic data on the spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of the epidemic waves. Following a comparison of the growth rates of infection numbers, the current study explores the geographical dimension of the three pandemic waves. The partial transformation of spatial characteristics during the three epidemic waves is among the most important results found. While geographical hotspots influenced the first wave, newly confirmed coronavirus cases in the second and third waves were due to community-based epidemic spreading. Furthermore, the western-eastern spatial relation and the core-periphery model also affected the regional distribution of new cases and deaths in the initial two waves. However, a new spatial pattern - realised by the northern-southern spatial orientation - appeared during the third wave. The outputs of this paper offer feasible suggestions for evidence-based policymaking in pandemic prevention, mitigation, and preparedness.

COVID-19 Wenzhou Community Based Isolation Strategy for Controlling the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinhai Huang ◽  
Jinjin Yu ◽  
Rui Ning ◽  
Yili Jin ◽  
Colm McAlinden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Novel ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals An immersive Arabic language course in Cairo moves online

2021 ◽  
pp. 79-94
Author(s):  
Heba Salem
Keyword(s):  
Arabic Language ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Community Based ◽  
American University ◽  
University Environment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Community Based Learning ◽  
Online Format ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The University

This chapter describes the my experience as the instructor for a course rooted in community based learning theory that was forced to move online in spring, 2020, due to the novel coronavirus pandemic. The course, titled ‘CASA Without Borders’, allows Arabic language students in the Center for Arabic Study Abroad (CASA) program at The American University in Cairo (AUC) to leave the university environment and serve the community, while also benefiting from the experience both linguistically and culturally. This course was disrupted by the students’ mandatory return to the US from Cairo as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, and continued remotely in an online format. This chapter describes the CASA program and explains both the purpose of the CASA Without Borders course and its significance to CASA students and to the program. It also describes and reflects upon my experience of continuing the course remotely during the ongoing pandemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Patients With Hematologic Malignancies: A Single Center Retrospective Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuejun Alice Wang ◽  
Adam F. Binder ◽  
Usama Gergis ◽  
Lindsay Wilde
Keyword(s):  
Hematologic Malignancies ◽  
Smoking History ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Mild Disease ◽  
Patients With Cancer ◽  
Lymphoid Malignancies ◽  
Co Morbidity ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Overall Mortality

Initial studies that described the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) reported increased morbidity and mortality in patients with cancer. Of this group, patients with hematologic malignancies (HM) had the highest disease severity and death rates. Subsequent studies have attempted to better describe how COVID-19 affects patients with HM. However, these studies have yielded variable and often contradictory results. We present our single-institution experience with patients with HM who were diagnosed with COVID-19 from March 2020 to March 2021. We report 62 total cases with 10 patients who died during this time. The overall mortality was 16.1%. Mortality during the first two waves of COVID was 27.8% and 25%. Mortality during the third wave of COVID was 10%. The median age of patients was 67 years (range 20-89 years). 55% of patients had lymphoid malignancies and the majority had active disease at the time of diagnosis with COVID-19. 87% of patients had more than one co-morbidity. Important co-morbidities included cardiovascular disease and smoking history. 38.7% of patients had asymptomatic or mild disease, 54.8% required hospitalization, and 17.5% required ICU level care. In patients who required ICU level care, the mortality was 60%.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supported by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, EUA and India is investigated. We perform the numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus (SDE) for the estimating of novel cases daily as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker-Planck equation for the density probability distribution of novel cases, P(N(t); t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertain in the official data and to the number of tests realized in the populations of each country.

scholarly journals The Pavlov University experience in medical assistance for patients with the novel coronavirus infection: first results and lessons

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
S. F. Bagnenko, ◽  
Yu. S. Polushin ◽  
I. V. Shlyk ◽  
V. M. Teplov ◽  
E. A. Karpova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Department ◽  
Results Of Treatment ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The constant mutation of the virus and the complicated epidemiological situation in other countries keep the probability of a third wave of the pandemic in the Russian Federation fairly high. It is important to summarize the gained experience as fast as possible to use it appropriately once it is needed.The objective: to analyze the specific parameters of care for critically ill patients with the novel coronavirus infection in Pavlov Multidisciplinary Medical Center.Subjects and methods. This is a result-based report on the work performed by the Infection Center, which was deployed twice in Pavlov Multidisciplinary Medical Center (from 28.04.2020 to 03.08.2020 and from 01.11.2020 to 15.03.2021). Totally, 3,830 patients with SARS-CoV-2 were managed (1,680 patients during the first deployment and 2,150 patients during the second one). In the preparatory period, the operation of the emergency department based on the inpatient emergency medical department (EMD) had been simulated to clarify its staff structure and the procedure for admission, examination, and treatment of patients. Here we compare the organizational approaches during the first and second waves of the pandemic and present the characteristics of the demographic data of the treated patients, the incidence of certain complications, and outcomes.Results. The overall lethality in the Center made 6.2%. Despite the experience gained in the first wave, the results of treatment during the second wave (autumn-winter) did not improve (5.7% died in the first wave and 6.7% in the second one). Lethality in ICU and EMD was 40.0% and 49.6%, in ICU only – 38.5% and 46.9% respectively. A moderate lethality increase in ICU was due to the concentration of critically ill and most critically ill patients. There were 51.4% of patients with comorbidities and 53.5% were above 65 years of age. Refinement and differentiation of tasks performed by departments, simulation of the operation of the Center before opening made it possible to increase the throughput of the medical unit avoiding rush during admission and deterioration the quality of treatment.Conclusion. Certain aspects of the organization of medical care affect the performance of a multidisciplinary medical institution transformed into an infectious diseases hospital. The experience gained under such circumstances can be useful in other emergencies with a large number of victims and patients.

scholarly journals Low COVID-19 impact in Africa: The multifactorial Nexus

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Aniefiok Udoakang ◽  
Mary Oboh ◽  
Agatha Henry-Ajala ◽  
Claudia Anyigba ◽  
Semeeh Omoleke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Novel ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Potential Factors ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Effective Public Health ◽  
A Current ◽  
Better Than

Africa has defied predictions of being the worst hit by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, which has devastated Europe, the Americas, and some Asian countries. However, with a current second and third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic across other continents, pertinent​ questions have arisen regarding the lower disease severity and seemingly better outcomes in most African countries. Several factors have been proposed as discussed in this review including, underreporting, quick lockdown measures, effective public health intervention, younger population structure, cross-immunity and experience from fighting previous epidemics, such as the Ebola virus outbreak, previous infections or vaccinations, genetic predisposition, and tropical climate. We have discussed the implications of these factors on the magnitude of the outbreak and the better-than-expected outcomes observed in Africa. In addition, other potential factors like vitamin-D deficiency and chronic non-communicable diseases could predispose non-African regions to severe COVID-19 outcome. Therefore, this review further advocates for research to understand the precise mechanisms responsible for the pandemic’s relatively mild impact in Africa and proposed recommendations to prevent an infection surge.

scholarly journals Prevalence of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Poznań, Poland, after the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 541
Author(s):  
Dagny Lorent ◽  
Rafal Nowak ◽  
Carolina Roxo ◽  
Elzbieta Lenartowicz ◽  
Aleksandra Makarewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Direct Contact ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Igg Antibodies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

In comparison to other European countries, during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic, Poland reported a relatively low number of confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. To estimate the scale of the pandemic in Poland, a serosurvey of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was performed after the first wave of COVID-19 in Europe (March–May 2020). Within this study, we collected samples from 28 July to 24 September 2020 and, based on the ELISA results, we found that 1.67% (25/1500, 95% CI 1.13–2.45) of the Poznan (Poland) metropolitan area’s population had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 after the first wave of COVID-19. However, the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies was confirmed with immunoblotting in 56% (14/25) samples, which finally resulted in a decrease in seroprevalence, i.e., 0.93% (14/1500, 95% CI 0.56–1.56). The positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG results were associated with age, occupation involving constant contact with people, travelling abroad, non-compliance with epidemiological recommendations and direct contact with the novel coronavirus. Our findings confirm the low SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Poland and imply that the population had little herd immunity heading into the second and third wave of the pandemic, and therefore, that herd immunity contributed little to preventing the high numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related deaths in Poland during these subsequent waves.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
Probability Density Distribution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supply by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, United States and India is investigated. We perform a numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus for the estimating of novel cases daily, as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density distribution of novel cases, P(N(t); t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô’s diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertainty in the official data and to the number of testsrealized in populations of each country.

scholarly journals Phylo-geo-network and haplogroup analysis of 611 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) genomes from India

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. e202000925
Author(s):  
Rezwanuzzaman Laskar ◽  
Safdar Ali
Keyword(s):  
Viral Evolution ◽  
Reference Sequence ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Accession Number ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
The Core ◽  
Link Type ◽  
Ncbi Accession ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Ncbi Accession Number

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) from Wuhan China discovered in December 2019 has since developed into a global epidemic. Presently, we constructed and analyzed the phylo-geo-network of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from across India to understand the viral evolution in the country. A total of 611 full-length genomes from different states of India were extracted from the EpiCov repository of GISAID initiative on 6 June, 2020. Their alignment with the reference sequence (Wuhan, NCBI accession number NC_045512.2) uncovered 270 parsimony informative sites. Furthermore, 339 genomes were divided into 51 haplogroups. The network revealed the core haplogroup as that of reference sequence NC_045512.2 (Haplogroup A1) with 157 identical sequences present across 16 states. Remaining haplogroups had <10 identical sequences across a maximum of three states. Some states with fewer samples had more haplogroups. Forty-one haplogroups were localized exclusively to any one state. The two most common lineages are B6 and B1 (Pangolin) whereas clade A2a (Covidex) appears to be the most predominant in India. Because the pandemic is still emerging, the observations need to be monitored.

scholarly journals Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran using epidemic modeling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebrahim Sahafizadeh ◽  
Samaneh Sartoli
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractBackgroundAs reported by Iranian governments, the first cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections confirmed in Qom, Iran on February 19, 2020 (30 Bahman 1398). The number of identified cases afterward increased rapidly and the novel coronavirus spread to all provinces of the country. This study aimed to fit an epidemic model to the reported cases data to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in Iran.MethodsWe used data from February 21, 2020, to April 21, 2020, on the number of cases reported by Iranian governments and we employed the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) epidemic spreading model to fit the transmission model to the reported cases data by tuning the parameters in order to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran.ResultsThe value of reproduction number was estimated 4.86 in the first week and 4.5 in the second week. it decreased from 4.29 to 2.37 in the next four weeks. At the seventh week of the outbreak the reproduction number was reduced below one.ConclusionsThe results indicate that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 was significantly larger than one in the early stages of the outbreak. However, implementing social distancing and preventing travelling on Nowruz (Persian New Year) effectively reduced the reproduction number. Although the results indicate that reproduction number is below one, it is necessary to continue social distancing and control travelling to prevent causing a second wave of outbreak.

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