scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
Probability Density Distribution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supply by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, United States and India is investigated. We perform a numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus for the estimating of novel cases daily, as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density distribution of novel cases, P(N(t); t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô’s diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertainty in the official data and to the number of testsrealized in populations of each country.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
Probability Density Distribution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supply by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, United States and India is investigated. We perform a numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus for the estimating of novel cases daily, as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker–Planck equation for the probability density distribution of novel cases, P(N(t), t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô’s diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertainty in the official data and to the number of tests realized in populations of each country.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supported by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, EUA and India is investigated. We perform the numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus (SDE) for the estimating of novel cases daily as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker-Planck equation for the density probability distribution of novel cases, P(N(t); t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertain in the official data and to the number of tests realized in the populations of each country.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supported by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, EUA and India is investigated. We performed the numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation for estimating of the novel cases diary as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent partial equation for the distribution of novel cases P. Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion fits well to the results diary due to uncertain in the official data and to the number of tests realized in the populations of each country.

scholarly journals Stochastic analysis using public data for forecasting of epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo dos Santos Lima
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Stochastic Analysis ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract We propose a stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus based in data supported by the Brazilian health agencies. Furthermore, we performed an analysis using the Fokker-Planck equation estimating the novel cases in the day t as the mean half-width of the distribution of novel cases P(N,t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion adjusts well to the results supplied by health Brazilian agencies due to large uncertain in the official data and to the low number of tests realized in the population.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Applications

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 990
Author(s):  
Roman Cherniha ◽  
Vasyl’ Davydovych
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Exact Solutions ◽  
Quantitative Description ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equations ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Good Agreement

A mathematical model based on nonlinear ordinary differential equations is proposed for quantitative description of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pandemic. The model possesses remarkable properties, such as as full integrability. The comparison with the public data shows that exact solutions of the model (with the correctly specified parameters) lead to the results, which are in good agreement with the measured data in China and Austria. Prediction of the total number of the COVID-19 cases is discussed and examples are presented using the measured data in Austria, France, and Poland. Some generalizations of the model are suggested as well.

scholarly journals Gender differences in patients with COVID-19: Focus on severity and mortality

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-Min Jin ◽  
Peng Bai ◽  
Wei He ◽  
Fei Wu ◽  
Xiao-Fang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Series ◽  
Male Gender ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Beijing City ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
The Public ◽  
Key Points ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractImportanceThe recent outbreak of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Disease (COVID-19) has put the world on alert, that is reminiscent of the SARS outbreak seventeen years ago.ObjectiveWe aim to compare the severity and mortality between male and female patients with both COVID-19 and SARS, to explore the most useful prognostic factors for individualized assessment.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsWe extracted the data from a case series of 43 hospitalized patients we treated, a public data set of the first 37 cases died of COVID-19 in Wuhan city and 1019 survived patients from six cities in China. We also analyzed the data of 524 patients with SARS, including 139 deaths, from Beijing city in early 2003.Main Outcomes and MeasuresSeverity and mortality.ResultsOlder age and high number of comorbidities were associated with higher severity and mortality in patients with both COVID-19 and SARS. The percentages of older age (≥65 years) were much higher in the deceased group than in the survived group in patients with both COVID-19 (83.8 vs. 13.2, P<0.001) and SARS (37.4 vs. 4.9, P<0.001). In the case series, men tend to be more serious than women (P=0.035), although age was comparable between men and women. In the public data set, age was also comparable between men and women in the deceased group or the survived group in patients with COVID-19. Meanwhile, gender distribution was exactly symmetrical in the 1019 survivors of COVID-19. However, the percentage of male were higher in the deceased group than in the survived group (70.3 vs. 50.0, P=0.015). The gender role in mortality was also observed in SARS patients. Survival analysis showed that men (hazard ratio [95% CI] 1.47 [1.05-2.06, P= 0.025) had a significantly higher mortality rate than women in patients with SARS.Conclusions and RelevanceOlder age and male gender are risk factors for worse outcome in patients with COVID. While men and women have the same susceptibility to both SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, men may be more prone to have higher severity and mortality independent of age and susceptibility.Key PointsQuestionAre men more susceptible to getting and dying from COVID-19?FindingsIn the case series, men tend to be more serious than women. In the public data set, the percentage of men were higher in the deceased group than in the survived group, although age was comparable between men and women.MeaningMale gender is a risk factor for worse outcome in patients with COVID independent of age and susceptibility.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

High cytokine levels and cytokine storm in the novel coronavirus infection

2021 ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Maksim Leonidovich Maksimov ◽  
Albina Ayratovna Zvegintseva ◽  
Lyudmila Yurievna Kulagina ◽  
Albina Zainutdinovna Nigmedzyanova ◽  
Elvina Ramisovna Kadyseva
Keyword(s):  
Peripheral Blood ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Cytokine Storm ◽  
The Public ◽  
Systemic Inflammatory Reaction ◽  
Scientific World ◽  
Cytokine Levels ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

A review article is based on current foreign sources. The level of cytokines in the peripheral blood can be increased in many diseases, but in some cases there may be an excess of their normal concentration in tens, hundreds or more times with the development of a peculiar clinical picture, which is based on a systemic inflammatory reaction. In the literature this condition has received the figurative name «cytokine storm», which highlights an extremely violent reaction of the immune system with an unknown (often unfavorable) outcome. Close attention of the scientific world and the public to the problem of extremely high levels of cytokines in the peripheral blood (hypercytokinemia) was drawn due to the high frequency of the cytokine storm in the novel coronavirus infection.

Volatility transmission across international markets amid COVID 19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hechem Ajmi ◽  
Nadia Arfaoui ◽  
Karima Saci
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
International Markets ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Death Cases

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the volatility transmission across stocks, gold and crude oil markets before and during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. Design/methodology/approach A multivariate vector autoregression (VAR)-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model (BEKK-GARCH) is used to assess volatility transmission across the examined markets. The sample is divided as follows. The first period ranging from 02/01/2019 to 10/03/2020 defines the pre-COVID-19 crisis. The second period is from 11/03/2020 to 05/10/2020, representing the COVID-19 crisis period. Then, a robustness test is used using exponential GARCH models after including an exogenous variable capturing the growth of COVID-19 confirmed death cases worldwide with the aim to test the accuracy of the VAR-BEKK-GARCH estimated results. Findings Results indicate that the interconnectedness among the examined market has been intensified during the COVID-19 crisis, proving the lack of hedging opportunities. It is also found that stocks and Gold markets lead the crude oil market especially during the COVID-19 crisis, which explains the freefall of the crude oil price during the health crisis. Similarly, results show that Gold is most likely to act as a diversifier rather than a hedging tool during the current health crisis. Originality/value Although the recent studies in the field focused on analyzing the relationships between different markets during the first quarter of 2020, this study considers a larger data set with the aim to assess the volatility transmission across the examined international markets Amid the COVID-19 crisis, while it shows the most significant impact on various financial markets compared to other diseases.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document